Another Alberta clipper system is forecast to spread an area of snow across southern Manitoba Wednesday evening reaching Winnipeg sometime Wednesday night, just as we usher in the new year. The snow is expected to continue into Thursday morning before tapering off by afternoon. Early snowfall projections with this system are in the 5-10 cm range. Note that the system will also be accompanied by brisk southeast winds ahead of it Wednesday evening, and gusty northwesterly winds behind it on Thursday, so blowing and drifting snow may be a problem in addition to the snowfall.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Thursday, December 25, 2008
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Friday, December 19, 2008
A storm system moving across the Northern Plain states is spreading an area of snow through North Dakota and southwest MB today. This area of snow will slowly move eastward tonight and persist through Saturday and Saturday night over North Dakota and southern MB. A snowfall warning has been issued for areas along the US border from Killarney through Emerson to Steinbach and Vita for up to 15 cm of snow by Saturday evening. Here in Winnipeg, we will still see snow out of this system tonight and Saturday, with amounts up to 10 cm expected by Saturday evening.
Once again, conditions are expected to be worse south of the border. Like last weekend, this will mean difficult travel conditions if you're heading into North Dakota or northern Minnesota, although this event should not be as severe as last weekend's blizzard in those areas. Nevertheless, winter storm warnings have been issued for North Dakota and northern Minnesota for snowfalls of 15 to 25 cm tonight through Saturday along with gusty winds and blowing snow through Saturday night. People planning to travel to the States this weekend should be prepared for poor driving conditions and allow extra time to reach their destination.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
The cold is here to stay for awhile, but at least the wind is nice and light today which will make those -20ish temperatures more bearable. In fact, with bright sunshine and afternoon highs near -21C, it won't feel too bad at all out there today. For tonight, a weak system from Alberta will cross southern MB bringing some light snow to the area, with a dusting to 2 cm possible in most localities including Winnipeg. Behind the system, northerly winds of 20 km/h will develop for Thursday, with temperatures in the mid minus 20s producing windchills in the minus 35 to minus 38 range (still shy of -40 warning level) Winds should drop off again Friday so windchills warnings may not be necessary for the rest of the week over much of southern MB. On Saturday, a storm system over the central Plains will bring an area of snow over the Dakotas into southern MB. Like last weekend's storm, the bulk of the snowfall with this next storm system is expected to remain south of the border, however it's possible parts of southern MB could see 5-10 cm on Saturday. Unfortunately, gusty northerly winds are forecast behind this system for Sunday with temperatures in the mid minus 20s and windchills likely in the -40 to -45 warning range again. Below normal temperatures are expected to continue through the first part of next week, with models hinting at some moderation by Christmas.
Note that Winnipeg has had a daily maximum temperature below -20C since Sunday Dec 14th. With forecast highs below -20C for the next 5 days, it's possible we may go 10 straight days before we crack the -20C mark again. This would be the longest such streak for a December in recent memory. (longest -20C streak for a December in Winnipeg was 15 straight days from Dec 11-25 1879, during Winnipeg's coldest December on record)
Monday, December 15, 2008
Remember that windchill is not an actual temperature, but rather a measure of the cooling rate of the atmosphere based on the temperature and windspeed. Your body loses heat more quickly when a wind is present.. the faster the wind, the more rapidly you lose heat. For more details on this windchill issue, read my entry from last winter explaining the windchill factor.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
The main story over the next few days will be the bitter cold, with strong winds today producing extreme windchills of -40 to -45. At these values, frostbite is possible within 10 minutes. Winds will ease somewhat Monday and Tuesday, but with bitter cold temperatures continuing (-25 to -35C), wind chills will be an issue through much of the week.
Friday, December 12, 2008
Models continue to show Winnipeg will on the northern edge of the heaviest snow from this system with the bulk of the snow (15-25 cm or more) falling through the Dakotas and northern Minnesota into NW Ontario. Remember though, with storms like this, it's not the total amount of snow that's the problem.. it's the wind in combination with falling snow that creates the problems with blowing and drifting. So it's important not to focus solely on the snow amounts with this system (although that will certainly be a factor), but rather the winds, poor visibilities and extreme windchills.
Winds will be increasing by Saturday evening across southern MB with snow and strong winds continuing Saturday night through Sunday. As a result, there will be extensive blowing and drifting snow Sunday especially through the Red River valley and open areas along the US border with blizzard conditions possible. The Hwy 75 corridor will likely be very bad especially from south of Winnipeg down to Emerson where blizzard conditions are possible Sunday. Travel into the States this weekend is not advised due to this dangerous storm which will likely be shutting down highways across the Dakotas, and possibly parts of southern MB as well. Add to that bone-chilling wind chills of -40 or lower, and you have yourselves a serious winter storm. Get ready folks, this will make for an interesting end to the weekend..
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Monday, December 08, 2008
The weather looks cold for the next couple of weeks at least as a large Arctic airmass spreads over the Prairies. For this week, the cold weather will be briefly moderated somewhat by occasional weak Alberta clipper systems tracking across the southern Prairies from the west. Across southern MB, one of these clipper systems is forecast to track through on Wednesday followed by another one on Friday. Each of these systems will spread cloud and some snow to southern MB bringing about 2-5 cm with each system. Still, these minor amounts in combination with the cold temperatures will make for icy road conditions through the upcoming week. Behind these systems will be a reinforcement of Arctic air into southern MB, especially over the weekend into next week with daily highs in the minus 20s and lows in the minus 30s.
Thursday, December 04, 2008
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
EC's 3 month outlook is available on EC's Weatheroffice website at this site. NOTE: For monthly and seasonal outlooks, I highly recommend you look at the probabilistic outlook map rather than the deterministic outlook map. The deterministic maps do not accurately reflect the true output of the climate models, which is better reflected by the more informative probabilistic maps. The probabilistic maps more accurately indicate where the climate models are showing the best agreement for above or below normal conditions occurring, and where there is the most disagreement. This measure of uncertainty is not indicated on the deterministic maps which make them subject to greater misinterpretation.
Monday, December 01, 2008
A strong Alberta clipper system is moving across northern SK today ushering in a gusty southwest flow of very mild Pacific air over southern AB and southern SK. Temperatures have soared into the mid teens over southern AB with several record highs established for December 1st. This warm airmass will be moving towards southern MB over the next 24 hours, but the bulk of the mild air will be bypassing to the south of Winnipeg into the Dakotas overnight. Even so, gusty south winds tonight of 40-60 km/h will bring rising temperatures overnight to the Red River valley, with temperatures expected to climb towards the freezing mark by daybreak. In fact, there's a chance we may get above zero (+1 to +3C) for a brief period early Tuesday morning as our winds shift into the west and tap some of the retreating mild airmass over southern SK. Regardless, the mild temperatures will be short lived as strong northwest winds develop behind the clipper system Tuesday, and bring increasingly colder air through the day. So watch for temperatures to fall Tuesday, especially in the afternoon and evening as those northwest winds pick up.
As for precipitation with this system, it looks like Winnipeg may get a period of snow tonight with a risk of freezing rain or ice pellets overnight as the warm front approaches. The bulk of the snow should remain north of Winnipeg through the Interlake and central MB, but we could see a couple of cm tonight. If any freezing precipitation develops, the best chance will be between 10 pm and 4 am, but amounts should be light. Nonetheless, road conditions could be on the slick side Tuesday morning as this system moves through with some mixed precipitation and near freezing temperatures. Look for windy and colder conditions by Tuesday afternoon with occasional flurries giving a dusting to 2 cm over Winnipeg and the Red River valley.
Overall, the month finished over a degree above normal with a mean temperature of -4.2C at the airport (-3.2C at my site) vs a long term November average of -5.3C. The month began on a very mild note, with a record high of 18.8C on the 3rd.. the warmest November day in Winnipeg since Nov 5th 1975 when we hit 23.9C (all time November high). The mild start and snowfree ground had golfers enjoying some late season golf through Nov 4th, with no hint of winter like weather. That would change soon enough however as a storm system tracking through from the Dakotas on Nov 6th-7th brought a messy mix of rain, freezing rain, ice pellets and snow to the Red River valley. The storm brought some 40-70 mm of rain and ice pellets to the southern Red River valley bringing high water levels to the Red River on the heels of a wetter than normal fall. By the morning of the 7th, Winnipeg and much of the western Red River valley had been transformed into a winter wonderland, with about 5-8 cm of snow falling in Winnipeg and heavier amounts of 15-25 cm west of the city from Pilot Mound through Portage. Snow has remained on the ground since with a month end snowcover of 5 cm in Winnipeg. Areas further south and east of Winnipeg however saw much less snow with this storm system, and enjoyed snowfree grounds through the end of the month.
After the 7th, the weather turned quiet and uneventful with some minor snowfalls now and then but little in the way of high impact weather. A mid month cold snap brought the month's coldest temperature of -19C on the 21st but that was followed by mild and dry conditions to end the month. The month finished with about 15 cm of snow at my site, slightly less than an average November monthly snowfall of 21 cm.
Overall, an early tease of winter, but a mild and quiet month overall.
Friday, November 28, 2008
The weather has been decidedly benign over the Prairies this month, with many places still without a snowcover. In fact, take a drive down Highway 75 from Winnipeg and you'll see little or no snow on the ground by the time you get to Morris. Likewise much of southern SK and southern AB remain snowfree. The lack of weather systems affecting the Prairies this month has meant little precipitation as well as above normal temperatures, especially over the western Prairies. Things will change next week however as an intensifying Alberta clipper tracks across the Prairies, bringing a band of snow with it, followed by a strong push of cold air behind it.
Models are indicating this storm system will develop over Northern Alberta next Monday (Dec 1st) moving into the MB Interlake area on Tuesday (Dec 2nd). The storm system will be preceded by a push of mild Pacific air that will send temperatures well above normal over the southern Prairies Dec 1st-2nd.. especially over snowfree areas. North of the storm track however, a band of snow will be moving across the Prairies pushing into central and southern MB on Tuesday. At this point, models are indicating the bulk of the snow (10-15 cm) will fall mainly north of Winnipeg through the Interlake area and central MB. However, the snow could push further south with a more southern storm track. As the storm moves east into Ontario, cold northwest winds behind it will draw much colder air from the Arctic over southern MB, bringing temperatures into the minus teens for mid to late week, into next weekend.
Monday, November 24, 2008
UPDATE: (Nov 27): The NWS office in Grand Forks has released their own local winter outlook for North Dakota based on climatological patterns for the Northern Plains. Their prediction calls for a generally colder than normal winter for the Red River valley, with above average snowfall. Overall, they expect a lot of variability this winter (i.e. roller coaster pattern) with a couple of distinct cold periods.. one from early to mid December, and another from late January to mid February. They also point to a cooler than normal spring.
Temperatures will also be near to above normal for the rest of the month, with daily highs in the minus 2 to minus 4 mark the rest of the week into the weekend (with above freezing temperatures possible over snowfree areas). So it appears that after a somewhat early start, Old Man winter has taken some time off. Is he resting up for a nasty return visit in December? Or is he just getting old and tired? Time will tell. At this point however, it appears that a major snowfall is not in the cards for southern MB for the foreseeable future.
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
These high resolution satellite images over Manitoba are available at the MODIS remote sensing website. You can monitor the progress of the lake freeze up with daily updates on this site.
A large Arctic ridge of high pressure will build over the Prairies today and Thursday bringing cold but dry conditions to southern MB over the next few days. The exception will be over and south of the MB lakes where some lake effect snow is possible today into Thursday. Elsewhere conditions will be dry with generally clear skies tonight through Friday. Temperatures will be several degrees below normal for mid November with lows in the minus 15 to minus 20 range and highs around minus 10. A moderating trend is expected over the weekend as a southerly flow develops ahead of another Pacific disturbance tracking across the Prairies. This system may bring some snow over southern MB by the end of the weekend.
Friday, November 14, 2008
The weather sure has been dull here lately, with little in the way of sunshine since winter arrived last week. Other than some sunshine on Remembrance Day, the weather has been generally overcast and dreary since Nov 5th, or 8 of the past 9 days. There is hope that some sunshine will break through the clouds for awhile on Saturday, but another clipper system moving through southern MB Saturday night into Sunday morning will spread more cloud and a chance of snow, especially north and east of Winnipeg. Dry conditions are expected Monday before another threat of flurries by Tuesday. November can be a very cloudy month as colder air moves over still open lake waters, producing frequent clouds even in high pressure ridges. Or in other words.. No sun, no warmth, no wonder.. November!
Friday, November 07, 2008
Further south and east of Winnipeg, precipitation was mostly rain Thursday, with significant amounts of 30-70 mm reported across portions of the southern Red River valley. Overall, an abrupt initiation to winter weather for residents of southern MB!
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
EC has issued its first winter storm watch of the season for the Red River valley, Interlake and SW MB areas. A storm system intensifying over the Dakotas Thursday will spread an area of rain over southern MB through the day Thursday that will change to snow over higher elevations west of the Red River valley. Rain will change through a period of ice pellets and possible freezing rain along the Red River valley Thursday evening before changing to all snow Thursday night. The transition to snow will be slowest southeast of Winnipeg which will keep snow amounts down in those areas. Snowfall totals with this system will be tough to forecast given the uncertainty in timing and location of the rain/IP/snow line, terrain effects, pcpn rate intensity (which can affect rain/snow transition), as well as melting effects of the still warm ground. At this point, preliminary snowfall accumulations by Friday could range from trace-2 cm over SE MB, 5 cm over Red River valley including Winnipeg (perhaps 10 cm north and west of the city into the southern Interlake), and 10-15 cm along the western red River valley/SW MB areas with the highest amounts over higher elevations. Stay tuned for further updates on this developing situation..
Monday, November 03, 2008
It was a record breaking mild day across much of southern MB today, as southerly winds pumped in an unseasonably mild airmass from the US. Temperatures reached 18.8C at Winnipeg airport this afternoon, eclipsing the old record of 18.3C for Nov 3rd, set back in 1903. The 18.8C reading is also Winnipeg's warmest November temperature since Nov 5 1975, when a high of 23.9C was recorded, Winnipeg's warmest November temperature ever. The 18.8C reading ranks as Winnipeg's 7th warmest November day since records began in 1872. It was even milder southeast of Winnipeg with 20C readings in places like Sprague and Steinbach. Amazing weather for early November in southern MB!
Sunday, November 02, 2008
It’s been a nice start to November with mild temperatures and dry conditions. The mild weather is expected to continue for the next couple of days before a change to wetter and colder conditions by the end of the week. In fact, the GLB model is indicating the potential for the season’s first significant snowstorm affecting southern MB by Thursday. In the meantime, enjoy these next few days with well above normal temperatures in the low to mid teens and sunny to partly cloudy skies. Things will start to change by midweek as an area of low pressure develops over the
Friday, October 31, 2008
It won't be quite as mild as yesterday's 17-20C weather, but conditions will still be ideal for trick or treaters this evening as a ridge of high pressure moves across southern MB today. Mainly clear skies are expected this evening with light winds and seasonable temperatures. After an afternoon high of +7C today, look for 6 pm temperatures around +4C dropping to +1C by 9 pm. Best of all, there will be no snow or mud to track through as conditions have been dry for several days now. Last year, after some rain and wet snow in the afternoon, conditions cleared for the evening with temperatures of +2C at 6 pm falling to -4C by 9 pm. Two years ago, kids had to track through 10 cm of snow on the ground after a snowstorm on Oct 30th dumped 12 cm of snow in Winnipeg.
Some Halloween weather highlights for Winnipeg since 1953..
Warmest Halloween…. 1999 - 6 pm temp: 15C
Coldest Halloween….1996 - 6 pm temp: -9C
Wettest Halloween… 2000 - 11.6 mm rain
Whitest Halloween.. 1971 - 18 cm snow on ground
"Scariest" Halloween.. 1979
Rain changing to wet snow, Temp +1C, winds N 48 km/h
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Some pleasant fall weather will finish up the month of October over southern MB with mainly sunny skies and nice temperatures. In fact, today Winnipeg will get into the mid teens as we get into a brief warm sector that brought some record temperatures in the low 20s across southwest MB and southern SK Wednesday. Cooler air moving in later this afternoon will prevent Winnipeg from reaching the low 20s as happened further west. Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Friday with highs in the 7-10C range, but conditions should be ideal for trick or treaters Friday evening with mainly clear skies, light SE winds and temperatures around +5C.
Monday, October 27, 2008
After a chilly night tonight (-6 to -9C most places) the weather will get a lot nicer this week as warmer air moves in from the west. Sunny skies and light southwest winds will boost temperatures to normal highs of +7C on Tuesday, then look for double digit highs of 10-13c for Wednesday and Thursday with sunshine and breezy conditions. Unfortunately a cold front will drop through southern MB late Thursday ushering a cooler airmass just in time for Halloween Friday. The good news is that it should be clear and dry for Halloween and winds should be dropping off by evening, with temperatures expected to be in the -2 to -5C range for Halloween evening.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
A strong cold front will push across southern MB late Saturday driving in the coldest airmass of the season so far Saturday night into Sunday across the area. The cold air will be ushered in by strong northwest winds gusting to 70 km/h, with locally higher gusts off the lakes. Temperatures on Sunday will struggle to reach +3 or 4 degrees, and those gusty northwest winds will make it feel 5 to 10 degrees colder. Most areas in southern MB will likely wake up to see some snowflurries Sunday morning, but localities southeast of Lakes Manitoba and Winnipeg may see heavier bands of lake effect snow Saturday night into Sunday as those cold northwest winds sweep over the open lake waters. Lake water - 850mb temperature differentials will be approaching 20C by Sunday morning, which is favourable for narrow bands of heavy lake effect snow. Note also that lake levels are running a little higher than normal right now, so northwest gales of 35 to 45 knots over the lakes may produce some shoreline erosion on the eastern shores of Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba. Fortunately it appears this arctic blast will be short lived as lighter winds and moderating temperature are forecast for Monday and Tuesday.
Monday, October 20, 2008
It should be a fairly nice week ahead across southern MB with generally near normal temperatures much of the week. There will be a band of rain moving across the Red River valley Tuesday night into Wednesday morning (perhaps 5 mm or so), but the rest of the week looks dry and seasonably mild with highs in the 10-13C by Friday or Saturday. Unfortunately long range models are showing a significant outbreak of cold weather by Sunday the 26th which will likely result in below normal temperatures for the last week of October. In fact, if the models are right, the airmass will be cold enough for the first snowflurries of the year across much of southern MB, with the potential for snowsqualls off the MB lakes. So be prepared for a chilly Halloween (yet again!), along with the possibility of some of the white stuff around.
Although freezing temperatures have been recorded across most of southern MB by now, the growing season continues in downtown Winnipeg which has still to register a below freezing temperature so far this fall. The lowest temperature so far at the Forks weather station downtown has been 0.3C on Oct 17th. This morning, while the temperature at Winnipeg airport dropped to a chilly low of -4.8C, the Forks station recorded a low of +1.5C, over 6 degrees warmer than the airport site. This difference is due to a phenomenon known as the "urban heat island" effect, which basically keeps temperatures (especially nighttime temperatures) warmer in a downtown core compared to nearby rural areas which can lose heat to the environment more effectively. This prolongs the average growing season downtown by 2-4 weeks compared to the airport site.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
For southern MB, the story will be rain today which should continue most of the day. Rainfall amounts should be about 15-25 mm over SE Manitoba including Winnipeg, with 25-35 mm possible over parts of SW Manitoba.
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Saturday should be cloudy and cool across southern MB as the frontal boundary begins to set up across the eastern Dakotas into northern Minnesota. This boundary will be separating warmer and drier conditions to the east from cool and wet conditions to the west. An area of rain will develop along this frontal boundary over the Northern Plains and spread into southern MB Saturday afternoon and evening. Rain may become heavy at times Saturday night into Sunday morning, with thunderstorms possible, as a low pressure system develops over the western Dakotas and tries to spread warmer air into southern MB. Rain from this system will continue to spread to the north and west of Winnipeg on Sunday, so there may be a break from precipitation Sunday afternoon over the Red River valley and SE Manitoba. Sunday night, a cold front from the low will sweep across Southern MB, bringing windy and cooler conditions on Monday, with clouds and a chance of showers.
My holiday weekend forecast for Winnipeg. Note that the timing of the precipitation will be subject to change based on how these systems develop over the next day or two. At this time, this is what the models are saying.. (updated Saturday morning)
Saturday..Cloudy and cool. Chance of showers this afternoon. High 9.
Saturday night..Periods of rain developing. Low 7.
Sunday..Rain heavy at times tapering off in the afternoon. Chance of a thunderstorm. Total rainfall amounts 15-25 mm. High 14.
Sunday night..Chance of showers. Low 5.
Monday..Mostly cloudy, breezy, cooler. Chance of a shower. High 8.
Saturday, October 04, 2008
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
Rainfall for the month was above average at 77 mm (82 mm at my site - average September rainfall 52 mm) but that was mainly due to two main rain events on the 1st, and the 22-24th when thunderstorms brought locally severe thunderstorms and heavy rain. The rest of the month was fairly tranquil with minimal precipitation and frequent dry days, making for pleasant late summer weather… a welcome extension to a summer that started off cool and wet.
All in all, a pleasant end to the summer of 2008.
Monday, September 29, 2008
A massive upper ridge of high pressure will be building over western Canada this week, bringing some superb late summerlike weather over AB and Saskatchewan this week. Daily highs will be in the 25-29C range all week in southern AB and southwest SK with sunny clear skies through Friday. Here in southern MB, we will be on the eastern flank of the upper ridge much of the week, which will keep us cooler than the western Prairies. Still, after some cloudy and cool conditions to start the week, the rest of the week should be getting progressively better with daily highs approaching the 20 degree mark by mid to late week. That should lead us into a nice warm weekend with highs over 20 degrees as the upper ridge moves east over southern MB. All in all, it's looking like a nice start to October!
Friday, September 26, 2008
Looks like some pleasant fall weather coming up over the next few days into next week as a large upper ridge begins to build over western Canada early next week. This upper ridge will bring sunny warm and dry conditions to Alberta and Saskatchewan much of next week, with some of that weather moving into southern MB by Tuesday.
In the meantime, skies have cleared across southern MB today behind a weak cold front that moved across the region this morning. High pressure will build into southern MB tonight giving clear skies and diminishing winds.. with some patchy frost possible by early Saturday. This high pressure system will bring ideal fall weather on Saturday with plenty of sunshine and light winds, making those afternoon highs of 17 degrees feel even warmer. On Sunday a low pressure system moving through the Interlake regions will spread an area of cloud and scattered showers across central and southern MB. This system is now forecast to move further north than earlier expected, thus the threat of rain will be lower for Winnipeg and areas south. As a result, we may get by with a rainfree weekend here.
Once this system passes to our east, clearing skies and seasonable temperatures are expected over southern MB for Monday and Tuesday with more sunshine and even warmer temperatures likely by Wednesday as the western ridge builds east. Some models are indicating that this ridge will collapse over the eastern Prairies by late next week allowing cooler air to return over us again, while the Cdn GLB model keeps us dry and warm right through next week. It's still a long way off to say one way or another.. but in the meantime, enjoy the fine stretch of weather coming up!
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
The first official day of fall was marked by strong thunderstorms last night that brought a swath of heavy rain over the Red River valley, as well as some severe wind gusts along the US border. Thunderstorms developed over northern North Dakota late Monday, and pushed into southern MB during the evening. As the storms crossed the border into Manitoba, they produced torrential rain and wind gusts to 106 km/h (57 knots) at Emerson at 10:43 pm, and an unverified gust of 165 km/h (89 knots) at Gretna at 10:42 pm. Although possible, the Gretna gust seems suspiciously high since there would have been damage reported with such wind gusts, and no reports of damage have been received so far. The storms were accompanied by 29 mm of rain within one hour at Gretna, and 34 mm of rain within one hour at Emerson between 10 and 11 pm.
The storms continued to move to the northeast through the night bringing a swath of heavy rain mainly from the Gretna/Emerson areas through Letellier/Dominion City to St Pierre up to the Landmark area just east of Winnipeg. Rainfall in this swath totalled 50-90 mm from overnight thunderstorms. The heavy rain area just clipped the east side of Winnipeg with Deacons Corners (Hwy 1/Perimeter) reporting 46 mm of rain since midnight, while the west end of the city only had 15-20 mm including Winnipeg airport and my site in Charleswood.
Some rainfall amounts recorded since late yesterday include.
Dominion City… 91 mm (spotter report)
Landmark………78 mm (including 44 mm 9 pm - midnight)
St Pierre………..72 mm (MB Ag-wx)
Emerson………. 65 mm (EC)
Morris…………. 62 mm (MB Ag-wx)
Winkler………… 58 mm (MB Ag-Wx)
Dugald………….53 mm (MB Ag-Wx)
Steinbach………46 mm (MB Ag-Wx)
Gretna…………..46 mm (EC)
Wpg - Deacons Corners…46 mm (CWB)
Winnipeg Forks…. 22 mm (EC)
Winnipeg Arpt….. 17 mm (EC)
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Some nice weather is on tap for Southern MB over the next couple of days as Mother Nature gives us some late summer weather before the official start of fall on Monday. Thursday will see brisk southerly winds of 40 to 60 km/h developing in the Red River valley as a warm front moves through southern MB. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the 24-27C range along with plenty of sunshine. Friday will see a weak cool front push through from the Interlake, but temperatures should remain above normal Friday with highs of 25C or so before cooling off in the afternoon or evening as northerly winds develop. Saturday will likely see cooler temperatures as we get northeast outflow winds from a cool high pressure area over northern MB. Current advertised highs of 25C are likely over-optimistic for Saturday, with highs of 17-20c more likely in the cooler airmass. There could also be considerable cloudiness around along with areas of dense fog as that frontal boundary remains stalled over southern MB separating warm air to our south from cooler air to the north. (in fact, Saturday's weather may be much like today's.. overcast and cool) By Sunday we should be getting back into south or southeast winds which would boost temperatures back into the low to mid 20s (current advertised high of 27C still likely about 5c too high for Winnipeg and areas to the north and east) So although the bulk of the weekend is expected to remain dry, I don't think it's going to be as warm or as sunny as current forecasts indicate.
Fall officially arrives at 10:44 am Monday morning but current models are suggesting we'll be staying with above normal temperatures in the low to mid 20s through Tuesday before more fall-like temperatures return by mid to late week.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Sunday, September 07, 2008
Early in the season, these precipitation bands are in the form of rainshowers. As we get further into the fall with colder temperatures aloft (i.e. 850 temps of -5C or colder), these lake effect bands will produce narrow swaths of snow to the lee of the lakes.. sometimes quite heavy. See an example from October 11, 2006 for an early season lake effect snow event over southern MB.. notice that the lake effect bands from that case are oriented virtually identical to those this morning (except it's rain today, not snow!) Lake effect bands off Lake Manitoba commonly set up between Portage and Elie, but can come into Winnipeg if the low level flow is in the right direction, from around 300 degrees, as seen in this example from last September.
Thursday, September 04, 2008
A weak low pressure system over North Dakota will be tracking slowly east over the next 24 hours, bringing an area of rain to southern MB. The leading edge of the rain shield is just spreading up to the MB border from the south as of midday, and should continue edging north this afternoon likely reaching Winnipeg by mid to late afternoon. Rain amounts are expected to be in the 5 to 15 mm range, most of it falling south of Winnipeg closer to the international border. Here in Winnipeg, look for about 5 mm from late afternoon through tonight. Cool unsettled weather is expected behind this system for Friday through the weekend.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
It looks like the fine summer-like weather we've enjoyed through much of August will close out the month this weekend with another round of summer-like warmth, especially over SE MB. But as if on queue, a sharp cold front will move across southern MB late Sunday or Monday bringing in much cooler and wetter weather just as the calendar flips to September. The details..
An upper ridge will build over southern MB on Saturday giving us a fine start to the Labour day weekend. Saturday will see plenty of sunshine across southern MB with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s along with increasing southerly winds. This upper ridge is forecast to build over Ontario over the long weekend, while cooler unsettled weather moves in over the western Prairies. The dividing line between these two airmasses will set up right through southern MB on Sunday along a cold front that is expected to drop southward across the Interlake and stall from southwest MB through Winnipeg into the Pinawa area. There will be a dramatic temperature difference across this front with summerlike temperatures of 27-30C to the south and east, and more fall-like temperatures of 20C to the north and west along with clouds and a chance of showers. Current forecasts for Winnipeg call for a high of 30C on Sunday, but I'm a little skeptical we'll get that high with that Interlake front so close to us (major bust potential Sunday because of this front). I think areas south and east of Winnipeg will have a better chance of seeing 30 degree temperatures on Sunday (including the Whiteshell, Lake of the Woods and the southern Red River valley), while places like Grand Beach through Gimli to the Riding Mtns will be considerably cooler on Sunday (highs only near 20C).
For holiday Monday, models indicate this cold front will sweep through southern MB, bringing in cooler weather for all areas but the extreme southeast along with a good chance of rain, possibly heavy in parts of southwest MB into the Interlake. All in all, looks like the best bet for a warm dry long weekend will be toward the SE corner of the province (e.g. Whiteshell, Lake of the Woods and southern Red River valley), while cooler and wetter weather moves in by Sunday to areas further north and west (especially SW MB through the Interlake). As always.. stay tuned…the forecast for this long weekend will be a tricky one.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Monday, August 18, 2008
The temperature at Winnipeg airport hit 30.2C on Saturday August 16th, the first official 30 degree day of the summer at Winnipeg's official weather reporting site. This marks the latest date that Winnipeg has reached the 30 degree mark since records began in the city in 1872. The previous latest date for hitting 30C was July 24th back in 1927 and in 1882. Thus, this year was over 3 weeks later than the previous latest date. The average date for hitting 30C is around June 4th based on Winnipeg climate data since 1872.
Note that Winnipeg airport observations began in 1938. Before that, weather readings were taken at St John's College in St Boniface from 1872-1938.
LATEST DATES FOR HITTING 30C - WINNIPEG
YEAR..DATE….HIGH……DAYS FROM APR 1st
2008...AUG 16…. 30.2C…..138
1882…JUL 24…. 30.0C…..115
1927…JUL 24….. 32.2C…..115
1920…JUL 19….. 31.7C…..110
1967….JUL 15…. 30.0C…..106
Thursday, August 14, 2008
If you enjoyed last weekend's summery weather, you're going to like this weekend as well as Mother Nature serves up another stretch of sunny hot weather over southern MB. An area of unsettled weather over SW Manitoba today will give way to sunshine Friday that will last through the weekend into early next week as an upper ridge of high pressure builds over the Prairies. Daily highs will be near 30 degrees each day giving the Winnipeg airport site its best chance yet to finally hit the 30 degree mark this summer (I'm betting we'll hit 30 this weekend) Summer of 2008 ain't over yet!
Monday, August 11, 2008
A slow moving trough of low pressure over SW Manitoba will feed a southerly flow of moist unsettled air over southern MB today and tonight resulting in widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. The slow moving and persistent shower activity will result in locally heavy rain as showers and thunderstorms advect over the same area (an effect known as "training") . Showers and thunderstorms will be most frequent over eastern ND today where flood watches are in effect due to the potential for 50 to 75 mm of rain in some areas. This area of heavy rain is forecast to spread northward into the Red River valley this evening and tonight, with 25 mm or more possible in areas mainly south and west of Winnipeg (although Winnipeg may also see significant amounts if the rain area expands further north). Note that locally heavy downpours this morning produced 32 mm of rain in Snowflake, 66 mm in Manitou, and 62 mm near Miami so a repeat performance is possible again tonight in some areas of the Red River valley.
Wednesday, August 06, 2008
It's been a rarity this summer, but it looks like southern MB will have an extended period of sunny warm weather ahead this week.. possibly lasting right through the upcoming weekend. A large upper ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the Prairies this week which will help to maintain sunny and stable conditions from the Rockies into northwest Ontario.. a nice change from the persistent unstable airmass that has brought almost daily shower and thunderstorm activity across the Prairies this summer. Temperatures in southern MB will be pleasantly warm this week.. in the 25-27c range climbing into the upper 20s to low 30s over the weekend. The GFS is even indicating a high of 33C for Winnipeg by Sunday. Perhaps YWG airport will finally hit that elusive 30C mark yet this summer! Whatever the case.. it finally looks like some nice beach weather ahead this week and weekend over southern MB.
Monday, August 04, 2008
Monday, July 28, 2008
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Some peak wind gusts recorded yesterday included..
Oak Point Marine..... 94 km/h (east shore of Lake Manitoba)
Victoria Beach....... 91 km/h (east shore of Lake Winnipeg)
Brandon.............. 78 km/h
Dauphin.............. 78 km/h
Winnipeg............. 74 km/h
Gimli................ 69 km/h
Much better weather is in store today with sunny skies and lighter winds. After yesterday, we deserve it.
Friday, July 11, 2008
|Front page of the Winnipeg Evening Tribune, Monday July 13 1936|
after Winnipeg's hottest and deadliest weekend on record
|Reconstruction of hourly temperatures in Winnipeg on July 11 1936|
Hourly temperatures are estimated based on 3 known values that day
during the July 1936 heat wave
High temperatures (F) - North Dakota - July 6 1936
The hottest day in North Dakota history set all time highs
in Bismarck and Fargo (114F), as well as the state (Steele, 121F)
|Official weather obs for Moorhead MN (near Fargo) for July 6 1936|
The form notes an all time record high of 114F was set at 3:15 pm that afternoon
|It was so hot during the 1936 heat wave, may residents were forced|
to sleep outside. This scene was from St Paul Minnesota
Southern MB remains under a severe thunderstorm watch this afternoon as a low pressure system over eastern North Dakota draws a warm and humid airmass northward. Morning thunderstorm activity has pushed into the northern Interlake this afternoon, while the south gets a temporary reprieve from the severe weather. However, as the North Dakota low moves into southern MB later today, a flow of warm and humid air will be drawn over southeast MB while a cold front pushes in from the west. This will set the stage for additional severe thunderstorms to develop, especially over the Red River valley and southeast MB. Strong winds and large hail will be the main threat, however favourable wind shear profiles over southeast MB may give the threat of tornadoes with any supercell thunderstorms that develop.
As this low pressure system moves north into the Interlake tonight, it will deepen into an almost fall-like storm by Saturday morning with strong west to northwest winds developing on the backside of the low. Gale warnings have been issued for the MB lakes with west to northwest gales of 40 knots forecast for Saturday. This will likely generate large waves over the south basins of Lakes Winnipeg and Manitoba with possible shoreline erosion problems on eastern and southern shores. Temperatures will also be unseasonably cool Saturday with highs only in the mid teens along with occasional rain making it feel more like September than mid July. Not a good day for Grand Beach unless you like windsurfing!
Wednesday, July 09, 2008
Looks like another setup for possible severe thunderstorms to develop across Southern MB late Thursday into Thursday evening. A low pressure system and trough will be moving across southern SK Thursday moving to the SK/MB border by Thursday evening. A warm front extending east of this system will lie across the MB/ND border by evening which will be the focus for thunderstorm development. South of the warm front, warm and humid air will be advecting north from the Dakotas and will nose into Southern MB especially south and west of Winnipeg. Favourable low level wind shear and an increasing jet stream aloft will set the stage for supercell storms to develop across the Dakotas and southwest MB, with the potential for large hail and possible tornadoes. The limiting factor in this setup will be how much moisture can de drawn into this system in a short period of time, since dewpoints are quite low across the northern Plains today. As a result, the severe weather threat may be late Thursday before sufficient moisture can be drawn into this system. Stay tuned..
Thursday, July 03, 2008
Hot weather will be returning to southern MB over the next couple of days with highs approaching 30 degrees Friday, likely reaching the low 30s on Saturday. Saturday will also see increasing humidity levels as southerly winds tap more humid air to our south and advect it north. This will set the stage for possible strong to severe thunderstorms to develop by Saturday evening over the Red River valley as a weak cold front approaches from the west. Behind the cold front, more comfortable conditions will return for Sunday with seasonably warm and less humid conditions.
Tuesday, July 01, 2008
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Thursday, June 26, 2008
A developing low pressure system over southern Saskatchewan will tap an increasingly moist and unstable airmass over the Dakotas to trigger scattered thunderstorms over North Dakota today. Some of the storms over the Dakotas are expected to become severe later today into this evening with much of the northern Plains in a slight to moderate risk of severe thunderstorms. As the low pressure system advances east, showers and thunderstorms will spread over southern MB tonight.. with the potential for locally heavy rain (20-30 mm).. intense lightning.. and hail, especially over southwestern MB. This activity will push through Winnipeg and the Red River Valley Friday with drier conditions moving in by evening as a dry slot pushes in. Cooler unsettled weather will return for Saturday in behind the low with brisk northwest winds and a few showers over southern MB. Highs will likely struggle to reach 20 degrees Saturday. Sunny and warmer weather is expected for Sunday Monday and Tuesday with highs likely approaching the 30 degree mark by the July 1st holiday.
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
A line of severe thunderstorms has developed over SW Manitoba this afternoon, bringing hail as large as ping pong balls between Melita and Virden and loonie size hail just south of Melita. This line is moving east at 40 km/h and has the potential to produce additional large hail and damaging wind gusts of 90 to 100 km/h. This line will continue moving east through the afternoon, possibly reaching the Red River valley this evening. We'll have to see if these storms remain severe by that time.
Monday, June 16, 2008
The Hydrologic Forecast Centre of Manitoba Water Stewardship advises that the Red River continues to rise due to heavy rainfall June 6-12, 2008. The crest is presently at Grand Forks, North Dakota.
At Emerson the river has risen 13 feet since early June and is expected to rise another 6 feet before it crests on June 22. At Ste. Agathe the river has risen 8.7 feet since early June and is expected to rise another 4.9 feet before it crests on June 24. In downtown Winnipeg the river level this morning stood at 8.1 feet above datum, a rise of 1.7 feet since early June. It is expected to crest between 9 and 10 feet above datum June 24-26.
Public Works and Government Services Canada (PWGSC) will continue to operate St. Andrews Dam at Lockport to maintain levels below 8.5 feet (Forks walkway level) in Winnipeg for as long as possible. However a minor inundation of the walkways is expected for a period of one week beginning this weekend.
Levels just upstream of St. Andrews dam have been declining as usual due to opening of the dam. PWGSC will issue information regarding operation of the locks for boat traffic. River levels from Selkirk to Breezy Point will rise 4 to 6 feet above normal summer levels which will not present any significant difficulties.
While the Red River will be well above average for the next few weeks it will remain well within its banks unless additional widespread heavy rain develops during the next few weeks. Boaters and canoeists are advised that the river current will be stronger than usual for the next few weeks, and therefore caution is advised.
Well, it's been a long time in coming.. but it finally looks like southern MB will see an extended spell of sunny warm weather this week. An upper ridge will be building over the Prairies this week, giving warmer temperatures in the mid 20s and more importantly, a lack of precipitation bearing weather systems. This will finally give southern MB a break from a week of heavy rainfall, and a much needed spell of warm weather. Southern MB has basically been below normal temperature wise for the past 8 weeks. This upcoming stretch of warmer weather, along with adequate soil moisture in all regions, will go a long way in accelerating crop development which has been slow due to the cool spring.
Thursday, June 12, 2008
The good news is that it looks like drier and warmer weather will be on tap next week, with no major weather systems moving through the Dakotas (a common source for heavy rain in early summer) Hopefully this signals the change to a much needed warm weather pattern over southern MB, which has seen a below normal temperature pattern since April 21st (past 7-8 weeks)
Sunday, June 08, 2008
Friday, June 06, 2008
A real soaker out there today with wind swept heavy rain falling across Winnipeg and much of Southern MB. I've received 28 mm as of 8:45 am, about 18 of that in the past couple of hours. City sewers having trouble keeping up with the volume of rain with waterlogged streets everywhere this morning. Highest amount so far is 42 mm at the CWB site in Glenlea south of Winnipeg. Radar shows moderate to heavy rain continuing this morning before tapering off this afternoon. With rainfall rates of 5-10 mm per hour in the heaviest bands, we could end up with rainfall totals of 40-60 mm across portions of the Red River valley. Will try to keep you up to date on rainfall totals as the day progresses.. Feel free to pass along any rainfall reports you have in the comments section.
Wednesday, June 04, 2008
Well the rain promised for last night and today fizzled over much of southern MB, with only light amounts of 5 mm or less reported in most areas. Here in Winnipeg, we had some light showers move in last evening giving amounts less than 1 mm, but the area of rain quickly dissipated overnight. Attention now turns to a more potent system developing over the Northern Plains Thursday which has the potential to spread significant rainfall amounts across Southern MB by Friday. This system will be tapping a warm moist airmass from the southern US, producing numerous showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Plains Thursday along with severe thunderstorms. This area of showers and thunderstorms will be moving northward into southern MB Thursday night into Friday morning, giving heavy rain at times. Models are indicating a potential of 25 mm of rain in most areas by Friday with up to 50 mm possible in more persistent showers and thunderstorms. So if you're still waiting for a good soaking rain in southern MB.. Friday may be the day! Stay tuned..