Southern MB remains under a severe thunderstorm watch this afternoon as a low pressure system over eastern North Dakota draws a warm and humid airmass northward. Morning thunderstorm activity has pushed into the northern Interlake this afternoon, while the south gets a temporary reprieve from the severe weather. However, as the North Dakota low moves into southern MB later today, a flow of warm and humid air will be drawn over southeast MB while a cold front pushes in from the west. This will set the stage for additional severe thunderstorms to develop, especially over the Red River valley and southeast MB. Strong winds and large hail will be the main threat, however favourable wind shear profiles over southeast MB may give the threat of tornadoes with any supercell thunderstorms that develop.
As this low pressure system moves north into the Interlake tonight, it will deepen into an almost fall-like storm by Saturday morning with strong west to northwest winds developing on the backside of the low. Gale warnings have been issued for the MB lakes with west to northwest gales of 40 knots forecast for Saturday. This will likely generate large waves over the south basins of Lakes Winnipeg and Manitoba with possible shoreline erosion problems on eastern and southern shores. Temperatures will also be unseasonably cool Saturday with highs only in the mid teens along with occasional rain making it feel more like September than mid July. Not a good day for Grand Beach unless you like windsurfing!