Monday, July 14, 2014

Nice warming trend this week.. risk of thunderstorms over weekend

CPC 6-10 day outlook valid
Jul 20-24 indicates return of
warmer air over southern MB 
After a record cool Sunday (max of only 15.7C), temperatures will be on an upswing this week as a deep vortex over Ontario shifts east and weakens. This will allow warm air over western and northern Canada to spread east into southern Manitoba over the next few days, along with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will climb to 23C Tuesday and reach seasonable highs of 26C by Wednesday.  The heat will return for the end of the week with temperatures expected to hit the 30C mark Thursday and Friday. Things get a little more uncertain for the weekend, with models hinting at some showers or thunderstorms by Sunday with increased humidity. After that, indications are that temperatures will climb above normal again for early next week. All in all, looks like a nice taste of summer coming up after a brief flirt with fall Sunday!

Wednesday, July 09, 2014

Seasonably warm weather ahead.. but another cool outbreak Sunday into early next week as heat wave builds over BC

Looking for heat over the next week?
Head west!
CPC 6-10 day outlook looks cool
for southern MB/Ontario.
Pleasant summerlike weather is in store for southern Manitoba over the next few days as a ridge of high pressure over Manitoba gradually pushes east into NW Ontario. Temperatures will climb to about 24C today and into the upper 20s Thursday, before a weak cool front pushes through Thursday night bringing a threat of showers and thunderstorms across the RRV into early Friday. Pleasant weather is expected Friday and Saturday with generally sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 20s. Unfortunately, a cold front pushing in from the north will bring a threat of showers Sunday along with a northerly push of cooler air that will likely result in high temperatures of only 18-20C for Monday and Tuesday... well below the normal high of 26C for this time of year. This northerly flow will be the result of a massive upper ridge building over western Canada early next week that will bring an extended heat wave over BC, with temperatures in the 35-40C range in the Okanagan and Fraser Valleys. A gradual moderating trend is expected over southern Manitoba by the middle to end of next week.. but as of yet, there are no indications of a pattern change to hot dry weather over us in the near future.      

Tuesday, July 01, 2014

June 2014: A "normal" month temperature wise.. but much wetter than usual..

June 2014 - Winnipeg Airport
Daily temperature graph and
anomaly from normal
June 2014 in Winnipeg finished with an average temperature of 17.0C, right on average for June based on the 30 year normal.  The statistic is a bit surprising given the frequent cool and rainy spells that occurred, especially in the latter half of the month. However, there were enough warm days and mild nights to boost the monthly average to "normal" values.

Rainfall was a different story. A total of 147.1 mm fell at YWG airport during June, some 57 mm (63%) above the 30 year June average of 90 mm. According to JJ's Winnipeg weather blog, this makes this June the wettest June in Winnipeg since 2000 (177 mm) and the city's 12th wettest June since records began in 1872. Totals were even higher in other parts of the city with 167 mm at my location in SW Winnipeg, and 170 mm at  the Forks downtown. It also didn't help matters that much of the rain fell over the last 3 weekends of the month, spoiling summer weekend plans for many. The rain however was even worse over western Manitoba which was deluged with record rainfall during June. In Brandon, their June rainfall total of 251.6 mm was the wettest month on record since records began in 1890. Previous wettest month was August 1980 at 217 mm. The bulk of the rain fell over the last two weeks of the month, leading to widespread overland flooding over southwest Manitoba. Rivers and lakes are at very high to record high levels across southern Manitoba, with flood warnings and high water advisories on many lakes and tributaries.  The abnormally wet conditions prompted the opening of the Red River floodway on July 1st to ease the risk of flooding in the city of Winnipeg.

So is there any hope of drier weather the rest of the summer?  Too hard to say. The next few days look promising with drier weather for the balance of the week. Increasing heat and humidity over the weekend will lead to a greater chance of showers and thunderstorms developing over southern Manitoba, but hopefully the activity will be more scattered and transitory compared to the past few episodes. Beyond that, there are no clear signals as to how the rest of the summer will shape up. Certainly there's a lot of moisture around which helps to fuel more shower and thunderstorm activity. But a favourable upper pattern can shut off the taps for long stretches as well. We're approaching the peak of summer now (mid July is our summer peak in terms of average temperature), and hopefully Mother Nature starts to take a much-needed summer break soon!

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Another unsettled weekend ahead.. showers and thunderstorms likely, locally heavy at times

Another weekend, another shot of unsettled weather coming up for southern Manitoba as a warmer and more humid airmass spreads over the eastern Prairies, while periodic weather systems trigger showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday. Much like last weekend, this upcoming weekend won't be a total washout with sunny, dry stretches at times. However, occasional showers and thunderstorms are likely each day, especially at night with the potential for some severe thunderstorms.. along with locally heavy rainfall. This will not be welcome news for those hoping to dry out from the wet weather over the past couple of weeks which has produced over a month's worth of rain in Winnipeg within a week. Cooler weather is expected to move in next week behind this unsettled weather pattern. 

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Unsettled weekend ahead.. wet Sunday likely for Dads and runners..

After some dry and pleasant weather this week, it looks like things will be getting more unsettled this weekend over Winnipeg and the Red River valley as a pair of weather systems affect the region. The first wave of precipitation is expected to move in Friday night into Saturday morning ahead of a warm front pushing up from North Dakota, possibly giving 5-10 mm to Winnipeg by Saturday afternoon (although some models are showing much less.. only a couple mm with the first wave). We'll get a bit of a break Saturday afternoon before another wave of rain moves in Saturday night into Sunday as a more potent system intensifies over northern Minnesota. That will likely bring steadier and heavier rain for Father’s Day (and the Manitoba Marathon) with 15-25 mm possible for Winnipeg. Not the best timing on the weekend, but the rain will be beneficial for farmers in the Red River valley, and most marathon runners would rather run in the rain than in the heat. Rain is expected to taper off later Sunday into Sunday night as the system pulls east.