Monday, December 29, 2008

Alberta clipper threatens snow for New Year's Eve/Day

Another Alberta clipper system is forecast to spread an area of snow across southern Manitoba Wednesday evening reaching Winnipeg sometime Wednesday night, just as we usher in the new year.  The snow is expected to continue into Thursday morning before tapering off by afternoon.  Early snowfall projections with this system are in the 5-10 cm range. Note that the system will also be accompanied by brisk southeast winds ahead of it Wednesday evening, and gusty northwesterly winds behind it on Thursday, so blowing and drifting snow may be a problem in addition to the snowfall.       

267 comments:

  1. Accuweather is saying 8 to 15cm for the Thursday clipper. Based on the information available I agree with Rob...5 to 10cm seems very reasonable.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I have a question I hope someone will be able to answer!!!!

    I was watching the weather channel the other day and they stated that Winnipeg's snowiest December on record was back in the early 1900's with 101.3 mm of precipitation !
    Which they state is exactly 101.3 Cm of snow!

    Does it always work out that 101 mm of precip will always equal 101 cm of snow!
    When they talk about Snow ratio's I get really confused!!!
    Anyone!???????

    ReplyDelete
  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I am not very good with weather records, so I'll pass this ball to the next person who drops by. However I do know for a fact that 101.3mm of liquid will almost never equal 101.3cm of snow...especially in Winnipeg!

    The Weather Network generally doesn't have real meteorologists on air, so I take their comments with a grain of salt. I can barely watch their shows because it is so obvious that their personalities know nothing about weather.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Daniel..

    Until 1960, observations would just use a straight 10:1 ratio all the time for snowfall. Starting in the fall of 1960 (at least here in Winnipeg), observations started to include water equivalent amounts of snowfall. And as of 2003, we now *only* get water equivalent snowfall amounts from the airport site.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Dan at NWS Grand Forks2:42 PM, December 30, 2008

    Hi from south of the border

    Just a word on our snowy December in North Dakota most all cities (where snowfall records are established) set monthly records for this December in terms of snowfall. Just over 30 inches in Grand Forks. Fargo and Bismarck just set their all time monthly snowfall record for any month with 33 inches and 44 inches respectively.

    The above numbers will change a bit as final snow totals are into the climate database. But what a winter it has been. But due to the very cold temps the snow water content is very low thankfully.

    But with the Red River basin (at least this part) going into the freeze up with record flows we have taken a lot of calls on flooding potential.

    Keep up the good work. A group of us from the NWS will travel and visit PASPC in Winnipeg next year. I spent a week there way back in 2000 as part of a forecater exchange program.

    Dan

    ReplyDelete
  7. correction to my last post...33.5 in Bismarck for December...44 inches so far this season (most seasonal snow fall to date ever).

    ReplyDelete
  8. Interesting information...Thanks for the post Dan.

    According to the NWS Grand Forks page, 1996 was also one of the snowiest Decembers in Grand Forks history. What kind of snow ratio did you have then? Right now I heard it was 32:1, here in Manitoba I wouldn't be surprised if it was 40:1. Obviously flooding potential could be an issue if the snowfall ratio gets lower, what would be the "danger-zone" for liquid equivalent on the ground come spring?

    ReplyDelete
  9. Dan..

    Wow.. quite the change from November when you still had no snow on the ground at the end of the month. I've seen how most of the storms have been tracking just to our south this month, but I didn't realize they've added up to record snow amounts for you! Here in Winnipeg, we've only had 28 cm so far this month (11 inches) so the snow gradient definitely increases south of the border.

    I can see why flooding concerns are creeping up.. after your soggy fall, now a heavy snowpack and it's only December..

    ReplyDelete
  10. Grand Forks snowfall to date 30.1 inches and snowiest month ever was Jan 1989 with 31.5 inches.

    Now 1996 saw 20+ inches in Nov Dec and Jan with Dec 1996 seeing 24.4 inches. Now our Nov was dry...and this snow we had with dry wx has much lower moisture content than in 1996.

    Here is info on Intl Falls MN via WFO Duluth...

    At International Falls, the year 2008 will go into the record books as having the 2nd Snowiest December as well as 4th Snowiest Year on record. Both number one records are currently held by the year 1992 that brought 43.9 inches of snow in December and an impressive 131.8 for the calendar year.

    As far as snow water equivalent....I dont know if there is a magic number. Thankfully I dont work in hydrology and river forecasting. Alf at Hydro Manitoba and the River Forecast Center down in the cities would have more clues. But with the ground saturated going into freeze-up I suspect much above 2.50 inches would indicate some concern. In spring of 97 there was 4-6 inches of water equiv in the snowpack. So we have a ways to go that is for sure...but lots of talk about the flood next spring for sure now.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Do you think that the storm track that Grand Forks area has had for the month of December will continue into the rest of the winter!
    Or could you see that storm track shifting ever so slightly.....
    maybe over southern Manitoba!

    We could use some weather up here!!!

    ReplyDelete
  12. Special weather statement issued for all of southern Manitoba for a quick hitting 10 cm of snow!
    It is gonna be having to snow pretty hard for that much snow in such a short period of time! Snow rates of 2 cm per hours are possible!

    ReplyDelete
  13. Forecast calling for a general 5-10 cm across southern MB tonight into Thursday morning, including Winnipeg. American guidance would suggest lesser amounts, perhaps 5 cm for Winnipeg, with a track slightly further north than GEM suggests. At this point with precipitation still to develop across the Prairies, can't say which solution to favour.

    Looking ahead, Saturday is looking interesting according to the GLB model which indicates an inverted trof set-up from a storm moving across the central Plains. GLB suggesting at least 10-15 cm of snow over SE MB, with higher amounts possible in eastern ND and nrn MN. GFS not as pronounced with this system.. we'll have to see how the models evolve with this one.

    ReplyDelete
  14. The latest GFS run shows more snowfall on Saturday. It still only gives SE MB 10 to 15cm, but it now gives Winnipeg about 10cm.

    For tomorrow it shows about 5cm for both Winnipeg and Steinbach. I am skeptical about the potential for 10cm right now. This system will be fast moving, and probably won't have any really heavy snowfall bands. I could be wrong, but I think 4 to 8cm is probably a better range.

    ReplyDelete
  15. To me it looks like this system is becoming more intense than expected. RADAR is filling in rapidly over Saskatchewan. The big question is how much of that moisture will make the journey into Manitoba.

    ReplyDelete
  16. It does look like it is intesifying over Sask but the only concern I have is the northerly flow it looks like it is going. I hope it doesn't miss Winnipeg.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Snowing and blowing pretty good in Saskatchewan right now with both Saskatoon and Regina reporting 1/4 mile visibility in snow and blowing snow. Conditions expected to spread east into Manitoba this evening and tonight..

    ReplyDelete
  18. Snow letting up here in Regina (6:36 PM) but wind is increasing.(gusting to 45k at my house in the city). Lots of snow on the drive way. I feel a snowblower day coming on tomorrow. Temp still rising as we are still on the east side of the clipper (-12C). http://nwrweather.com/ When the cold front comes thru tonight it will be ugly out in the open prairie.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Thanks for the report Dean. How much snow did you get?

    ReplyDelete
  20. Snow just about to spread into Brandon.. should be reaching Winnipeg just as we ring in the new year!

    ReplyDelete
  21. Hard to say how much snow with all the wind here in Regina. About 25 cm on the leeward side of the house (driveway)with some 40 cm drifts but nothing in some spots on the other side as of 7:30 PM. Wind still gusting to 47k.

    ReplyDelete
  22. I doubt much more than 6 or 8cm will fall with this system in southern Manitoba. The area of precipitation has weakened, and the NAM shows it deteriorating more as it moves completely into southern MB. I am predicting 3 to 6cm for most of southern MB, except for areas around the riding mountains...where they will probably see 4 to 8cm, with local amounts to 10cm. Overall a vicious, yet relatively weak system. If I lived in SK it would be a different story. For now my eyes are on the Saturday storm.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Quite the weather bomb over Nova Scotia right now. EC is predicting 30 to 50cm, with local amounts to 60cm! Winds will gust up to 100km/h. Sure wish I lived there right now...Now that is a BLIZZARD!

    ReplyDelete
  24. Picked up a very fluffy 8 cm overnight into eaerly this morning.. water content very low, perhaps 40:1 ratio or higher.

    ReplyDelete
  25. That fluffy factor really must have increased amounts. I haven't measured/melted the snow outside yet, but I would guess at least 5cm is sitting out there. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the ratio on this was 40 or even 50:1...even from inside you can see how light the snow is.

    ReplyDelete
  26. 7cm of snow here, with 0.2mm of liquid. Extremely dry snow!

    ReplyDelete
  27. 1.4 mm water equivalent out of Whyte Ridge station.. gives about 60:1 snow/water ratio for 8 cm of snow.

    ReplyDelete
  28. I jumped the gun a bit on this one. My gauge wasn't finished melting...I'll give you the real liquid when I know it is done!

    ReplyDelete
  29. The actual liquid from my station is 1.4mm. This creates a ratio (I think) of exactly 50:1.

    ReplyDelete
  30. I see another storm is coming in on Saturday!
    Any preliminary snow amounts??

    ReplyDelete
  31. Here is my best guess:

    4 to 8cm for Winnipeg, 8 to 12cm for Steinbach, and 10 to 15cm for Sprague. According to NWS Grand Forks we may be in store for much more than that, perhaps up to 20cm, but for now I am staying conservative.

    The system moves in early Saturday morning, much like this morning's clipper. It will spread 4 to 8cm throughout most of southern Manitoba. Some areas may get close to 10cm, but I don't expect warnings just for this part of the event. Then later Saturday afternoon a second shot of moisture moves north. Right now it appears as though south-eastern Manitoba will bear the brunt of this. 2 to 4cm of new snow in Steinbach, and 5 to 10cm of new snow in Sprague. Once again if NWS is right, we may see substantially more snow during this part of the event.

    The moisture that will be associated with this event is coming onshore right now. However the precipitation on the Plains won't develop until later tomorrow.

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