Thursday, January 01, 2009

New system threatens more snow for Friday night/Saturday

Another storm system moving into the northern Plains will bring another round of snow to southern MB Friday night into Saturday. Current indications are that 5-10 cm of snow are likely though much of the Red River valley including Winnipeg with this system, with 10-15 cm possible over southeast MB including Steinbach and Sprague/Falcon Lake areas. Models are showing that the heaviest snow with this storm system will fall over eastern ND and northern MN where 15-25 cm is possible. This comes on top of a record snowy December in those areas.. so the snow is starting to pile up in the Red River valley!


  1. From what I understand this weekend there will be an inverted trough passing through Southern Manitoba!

    We all know what came about with the last inverted trough that hit southern Manitoba!

    Way more snow than expected!

  2. snowfall warning issued for southeastern Manitoba!
    up to 15 cm of snow is expected!

    The snow is really starting to pile up!

  3. Inverted Troughs always spell trouble for us. It's nice to see snowfall warnings up for this event. I understand why Winnipeg was not included due to the hysteria it'd likely cause. I think the city will eventually be included along with points just to the West. The Red River Valley does some weird things in terms of channeling moisture.

    We got around 10cm on New Years, and with another 10-15cm coming, we'll end up with a decent snowpack for this time of year at around 18-20''.

    Precipitation is developing quite nicely with heavy snow falling south of 49 in Montanta at this time. 850mb vertical velocities increase substantially late tonight over us. So rising motion, clouds and precip appear to envelope the city late tonight.

    It also looks like the trough stalls out a bit tomorrow too, so this may add to the accumulations.

    Start getting in shape now, with all of this snow over us and record amounts to our South, this spring may be problematic, so sandbagging might become the norm for some areas.

    Question??? Can the amphibex ice breaker go out on the river if it is so rough due to the terrible freeze up this fall? I heard that the Red River is a death trap for snowmobilers due to the jagged ice chunks frozen in place. Also they turned the Assiniboine into a river trail this year instead of the Red due to the same issue.

  4. Been visiting here for quite a while now, and I'm really starting to get interested in the weather and want to outfit myself with a home system. I see Rob has the Davis. What are your thoughts on the National Geographic one from Cabella's or London Drugs for around $100. I'd love to be able to post the data to the web, so that all can use it, much like what Rob and others have.

    Love to hear your thoughts.

  5. I would love to get a weather station one day.
    Except right now I live in an apartment so the weather station will have to wait for now!

  6. If you want to buy a weather station it is all about accuracy. If you don't mind having the temperature off by several degrees, usually two or more, then this National Geographic station should be fine for you. If you want accuracy I would recommend the Davis...even if the Davis isn't completely accurate you can calibrate it.

    I used to own a Nexxtech weather station. It was also $100. Speaking from experience, I would never buy one of those again. The wind and humidity were terrible. The temperature didn't do well at temperatures below zero, and was only OK with temperatures above zero. The National Geographic one probably wouldn't have the same biases as the Nexxtech one, but it will have some inaccurate readings nonetheless. The bottom line is how accurate you want to be, that will determine everything. If you could find someone who owns the specific station you wish to buy, I would ask them about it.

  7. I'm surprised how little chatter their is on this up comming snow fall especially as it sounds like this may be the biggest one of the season. Looks like the radar shows the snow rapidly approaching Winnipeg right now.

  8. I doubt it will top the Nov 6-7th snowfall, but there will certainly be significant snow!

    Right now I am very uneasy about snowfall amounts. I can't quite put a number out there for any city. The QPF numbers I see are very small, however the RADAR returns tell me there should still be lots of snow. My guess is that there are high snow ratios again, but I don't know how high. My best guess right now is 8 to 12cm for Winnipeg, 10 to 15cm for Steinbach, and 12 to 18cm for Sprague. I am also concerned that extreme south-eastern Manitoba may see much more snow than we are anticipating, perhaps 20 to 30cm (inverted trough).

    It will be interesting to say the least.

  9. The radar returns are looking mighty impressive right now!
    This storm could catch us off guard!
    Environment Canada is telling us that the heaviest snowfall won't fall until Saturday morning until Saturday afternoon!

    By the way... if you get a chance check out the December temperature averages for this month!
    (shaw channel 48)
    We were well below average for December!

  10. I can't belive how in the last 30 minutes the system just west of Portage nearly evaperated. It looked quite strong and seemed to be intesifying and then poof.

  11. fear not Daryl....
    This system is just starting to get going!
    It will take a while for the air to saturate!
    There is a some heavy banding of snow to the southwest of Brandon!
    That will make it here overnight into tomorrow morning!
    Then another impulse of moisture will be arriving after the first heavy band!

  12. The system was forecast to weaken as it enters Manitoba tonight. Then tomorrow a second kick of moisture will be drawn up from the Northern Plains. Areas like Brandon, Melita, and Killarney will still be dumped on by the stuff in Saskatchewan this evening. Overnight the remnants of the moisture from SK will come into the RRV. That should give us 5cm...(All this moisture transfer jargon is part of the reason why I am having a hard time comprehending this system). Tomorrow with the extra moisture from Minnesota the Red River Valley and south-eastern Manitoba will see their big dump, the question is how much? I would think at least 5 to 10cm, but it could be more (this is where the inverted trough should chime in).

  13. A lot of the snow approaching us tonight is aloft, and is evaporating before reaching the ground. The snow is surfacing to our south and west. So I don't think Winnipeg is going to see much out of this initial shot tonight. Snow will increase overnight then continue Saturday with the inverted trough.. up to 10 cm still looks reasonable for Winnipeg, perhaps higher amounts if the snowfall ratios are high enough. Still looking like more snow to our south and east Saturday as Scott has mentioned.

  14. I was wondering about that. That snow band around Morden appeared to be stalling out. With temperatures still close to -20 snow can't be falling very heavily.

    If Winnipeg manages 10cm tomorrow, I guess south-eastern Manitoba will get more like 15 to 20cm? I am curious to find out snowfall amounts and ratios out of Saskatchewan from today.

  15. I have received 9cm so far. That is the most snow in almost two years! I expect to get at least 5cm more, which would put me close to 15cm.

    Just based on walking outside, the snow ratio is much higher today. I would guess that it is 20 or 30:1, possibly 15:1 in heavier bands. I guess we will see how accurate that guess really is...

  16. In Winnipeg I would say at least 5cm maybe a bit more. I don't think 9cm but most of it came after 6am. No doubt by the time its overwe'll have at least 9cm.

    Looking at the Radar it seems that the system almost seems to be slowly moveing counter clock wise. At least not moving east as fast as it once was.

  17. There is still a large area of precipitation in ND that has to move north. Not all of that snow will catch us, but some will. So long as Winnipeg remains within the snow band, I think the city should see 10cm. Although that 10cm will probably fall only in the south-east and eastern parts of the city.

  18. Scott do you think its going to take till midnight for this to move east of Winnipeg? I'm thinking closer to 5 or 6pm.

  19. Scott do you think its going to take till midnight for this to move east of Winnipeg? I'm thinking closer to 5 or 6pm.

  20. To me it looks like the entire precipitation shield is beginning to tilt slightly to the left...the inverted trough...

    If the precipitation starts moving in from the south-east, rather than directly from the south we could be looking at a prolonged period of snow. Regardless of whether something like that happens I don't think the snow will be out of the Red River Valley (including Winnipeg) until at least 2-3p.m. this afternoon. Since the RADAR is showing more intense precipitation over Winnipeg, and a tilt to the left I think your timeline might be closer to the real exit time. If we go with 5 or 6 p.m. that would be an absolute end to snowfall. That also makes me think that Winnipeg will reach 10cm. I would be interested to know what you get for snowfall, so keep me posted.

  21. Perfect my next question was going to be about that Inverted Trough that some were talking about. I noticed that slight tilt as well just didn't know how to explain it.

  22. I am up to 12cm now. That means I am under a 2cm per hour snow rate! I will have no problem reaching 15cm, and I might have an outside chance of 20cm if I get under a bunch of heavy bands!

    Daryl...I think that tilt is from the inverted trough, but let Rob clarify that. The below link is a frontal forecast. The brown dashed line extending off the top of the low at Sunday 00Z (6p.m.) is the inverted can see how it tilts.

  23. Hey Scott.

    My dad just called me from the NK area of Winnipeg and he now has 13cm of new snow fallen as of 1145am.

  24. I've measured 8 cm here in Charleswood as of 11 am.. still snowing lightly, maybe 0.5 cm/hr. Whyte Ridge station has recorded 3.4 mm melted snow, which gives a 25:1 ratio. As discussed above, snow is taking its time moving out along the inverted trough, so we may still get another 2-5 cm out of this thing before it's over. 10-15 cm snow totals for Winnipeg likely.

    Snowdepth on the ground at my site now up to 38 cm, which is deeper than anytime last winter (max depth 29 cm)

  25. I am up to 13cm here.

    My snowpack is 45cm, which is deep enough to go over the top of your boots.

  26. first time in a long time that I have seen "heavy snow" with 0.4 km visibility at the Winnipeg airport!!

    (12:00 noon observation)

  27. Looks like its starting to fizzle out

  28. Yes...the worst (or best) is over, but snow flurries will continue for awhile yet. A heavy band just setup over Steinbach, so I should pick up another cm of snow from that.

  29. Update...

    I have received 16cm for far, and expect another 1-2cm before the event is over. Along with 5.2mm of liquid, the ratio for the event was about 30:1 in Steinbach, same as Rob mentioned earlier for Winnipeg.

    This is the most snow Steinbach has seen in 2 years!

  30. 11 cm storm total here in Charleswood.. largest single storm snowfall of the season so far. I'm sure though we can do much better than that :)

    Generally 15-20 cm south and east of Winnipeg with today's storm.

  31. 17cm here in Steinbach, with 5.8mm liquid. 30:1 ratio for event.

    This is the most snowfall in 2 years!

  32. Wow
    Saskatoon is already at -37 C as of 7:00 pm !
    The cold tonight is really surprising me!

    Anyone else think that We could get that cold tomorrow night???

  33. The wind chill of -51 in Saskatoon isn't overly appealing either. I prefer snowstorms over cold snaps!

    I don't think we will get down to -38 or -40, but I think -33 to -36 is probable. If the wind wouldn't change to south early Monday morning we might have a shot at the high minus thirties, but personally I think -35 is a good forecast right now, although with the very cold temperatures out west (-42 in Edmonton), it wouldn't surprise me if we did indeed see those very frigid temperatures.

  34. More record cold for the Prairie Provinces last night!
    Saskatoon broke a record last night hitting -41 C!

    I assume that cold of cold air is going to miss us cause are overnight lows here in Southern Manitoba will not be that cold!

  35. Edmonton...-42C

    I doubt we will reach the -40's, but I suppose it is possible. It has been extremely cold out west, and that air mass is moving east. Tonight will be cold regardless.

  36. Well Scott...they did an update to the forecast at 11:00 and did some changes to the overnight lows!
    -35 C in Winnipeg with a -48 windchill!

    -37 in Brandon!

    We will see if they go lower at the 4:00 issue!

  37. It seems like the coldest forecast is at 4:00 p.m.

    I think -35 is reasonable, considering how cold it has been out west. I would expect some cities to be colder, and others to be warmer...-35 is a good average.

    It will be interesting to watch what the RUC shows as we get into the evening hours.