Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Major Arctic blast moving in Sunday....
Another Alberta clipper gave us more snow today with 5-6 cm reported across much of Winnipeg and southern MB. But Mother Nature is saving her worst for the weekend, as a bitterly cold Arctic blast will be moving in by Sunday on the heels of another snow bearing system. This system will be moving into Montana on Saturday then into the Dakotas on Sunday spreading another area of snow across southern MB over the weekend. Another 5-10 cm of fresh snow is expected Saturday into Sunday with this system, on top of the 10 cm that has fallen this week. The problem will be Sunday afternoon and evening behind this sytem as increasing northerly winds gusting to 60 or 70 km/h drives in bitterly cold Arctic air producing poor visilities in blowing and drifting snow. In fact, blizzard conditions are possible over southern MB Sunday afternoon through Sunday night especially over the Red River valley. In addition, temperatures will be plunging into the minus 25 to minus 30 range, with wind chills in the minus 40s. All in all..a nasty end to the weekend with a very cold start to the week ahead.
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Rob....would it be possible to get a blizzard in the City of Winnipeg
ReplyDeleteI mean right in the city limits with all the trees and buildings!!
The Weather Network is going all out on this one, they already have 20 to 25cm in the forecast for the entire event. I see EC already is noting snowfall this weekend, and I would imagine a special weather statement may be forthcoming if the current forecast holds.
ReplyDeleteThe ensemble and GFS agree on the track of the storm. It takes the storm from North-Eastern Colorado through Minneapolis, up into Wisconsin. I fully agree with Rob's estimate for snowfall. Even with TWN and the GFS going into the 20cm range, I am more comfortable with 5 to 10cm for now. This system will be potent, and more snowfall is not out the question.
Blizzard conditions certainly possible in Winnipeg with this system Sunday, but mainly if snow is still falling with the strong winds. Generally with these systems, the strongest winds develop on the backside after the main snow subsides, giving blowing snow and blizzard conditions mainly in open areas outside city limits. But it's going to be nasty Sunday night.. blizzard or no blizzard.
ReplyDeleteRight now, model consensus shows the heaviest snow tracking through the Dakotas with this system, with southern MB on the edge of the heaviest snow. But it's still too close to call at this point.. models can certainly trend a little further north over the next few runs depending on where this next Pacific impulse comes in. Will be interesting to see how this one develops..
ReplyDeleteWow the models must have changed. EC now saying 60% chance of flurries for sunday and Weather network calling for some light snow maybe 2-4 cm
ReplyDeleteNWS Granks Forks is calling this:
ReplyDelete"A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING STORM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT."
They currently have a slight to moderate chance of seeing 10cm of snow.
Wow did we ever struggle to warm up today!
ReplyDeleteIt was bone chilling cold today with that wind!
Very cold night out there.. lots of -30C readings just outside the city of Winnipeg and to the east, including a frigid -37C at the Dugald station from the MB ag mesonet (no one else is that cold)
ReplyDeleteColdest night of the season here at my site with -29C this evening.. but look for temps to rise a good 5-10 degrees overnight as a large bank of cloud moves in from the west after midnight.
I see the fun has begun as this next storm system moves in off the Pacific.. snowfall warnings out for interior BC, winter storm watches out for southern AB as well as Montana and western ND. Glasgow MT has even issued a Blizzard watch for nern MT. Expect to see these watch and warnings extended east, possibly into parts of southern MB by the weekend.
ReplyDeleteWell things could get very interesting around the area this weekend!
ReplyDeleteWe will be on the northern edge of this storm system for the most part with strong winds and light snow.
South here into the Grand Forks area.....LOOK OUT!!!!
NWS is calling this a blizzard that could be equal to the blizzard of 1997!!!
Only this time the windchill factor will be -40
Yeah..GFK isn't fooling around with this thing. They've hoisted a blizzard watch for Saturday night through Sunday night. NWS going with blizzard watches for all of ND into wrn MN where models show most snow (15-30 cm) and strongest winds (50-70 km/h) occurring with this system.
ReplyDeleteModels continue to show southern MB on the northern edge of the heaviest snow from this system but we will still feel its effects, especially along the US border and up to the TransCanada from SK to ON border Saturday night through Sunday. Though the worst of this is expected over ND and nrn MN, there will still be enough snow and wind over southern MB to cause problems. Hwy 75 corridor will likely be very bad especially from south of Winnipeg down to Emerson where blizzard conditions are possible Sunday. Travel into the States this weekend is not advised due to this dangerous storm which will likely be shutting down highways across the Dakotas, and possibly parts of southern MB as well. Stay tuned..
If this system tracks mere kilometers farther North we will be in the heaviest snow, and in a major blizzard.
ReplyDeleteRight now the NWS is still indicated 10cm of snow is possible on both Saturday and Sunday for Southern Manitoba, mainly South of the Trans-Canada.
Winter Storm Watch issued for Southern Manitoba !!!
ReplyDeleteBlizzard conditions possible with EXTREME wind chills!
The Weather Network has upped amounts for Steinbach to 15cm for the weekend. EC has 5 to 10cm for Saturday, and we will find out Sunday amounts tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteJust from looking at some models 15cm is a very decent estimate at the present time. Both models have about 10mm accumulation, being factored in with a 1:15 ratio (or 15:1...I can't remember), would equal 15cm. Seems like EC agrees with that route so far. Personally I would expect them to have 5 to 10cm in the forecast for Sunday as well, but time will tell. 10 to 20cm for the weekend from EC in that case...
Looks like Winnipeg will be on the edge of the heavy snowfall, it is way too soon to call whether good ole YWG will have enough snow to create a blizzard. One can only assume it wouldn't take much snow for the airport to have a blizzard with the expected winds.
Latest GEM grid values gives about 2 cm to Winnipeg by Saturday evening, another 5 cm Saturday night, and another 2-4 cm Sunday for 9-13 cm total by Sunday evening. Further south of Winnipeg along the US border and into southeast MB including Steinbach, GEM is indicating amounts of 10-20 cm.
ReplyDeleteRemember though, with storms like this, it's not the total amount of snow that's the problem.. it's the wind in combination with falling snow that creates the problems with blowing and drifting. So it's important not to focus solely on the snow amounts with this system (although that will be certainly be a factor), but rather the winds and poor visibilities.
Winds will be increasing by Saturday evening with snow and strong winds continuing Saturday night through Sunday. As a result, there will be extensive blowing and drifting snow Sunday especially through the Red River valley with blizzard conditions likely. Add to that bone-chilling wind chills of -40 or lower, and you have yourselves a serious storm. This will be an interesting one folks..
Nice little shot of mild air to our west.. Portage is up to -4C at 4 pm, Dauphin is -3C. Winnipeg could briefly get up to that -5C mark this evening as our winds shift into the west, before the colder air moves in tonight. Enjoy it.. that'll be the last we see of single digit temperatures for awhile!
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