Thursday, December 25, 2008
Some snow on the way as cold snap eases..
The cold weather of the past 2 weeks will finally be loosening its grip over southern MB over the next few days with temperatures rising to normal values for late December. The milder temperatures will be ushered in with occasional snow bearing systems moving across the southern Prairies, both tomorrow (Friday) and Sunday. Friday's system will be a developing low across the Dakotas that will spread snow into southern MB Friday into Friday night. Amounts with this system look to be around 5 cm for most localities in southern MB, possibly up to 10 cm in some localities. Brisk northerly winds behind the system may produce areas of blowing and drifting snow Friday night. An Alberta clipper will threaten another 5-10 cm of snow to southern MB late Sunday into Monday morning.
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Rob!
ReplyDeleteAre we on track to be above normal snowfall for December?
If not I'm sure the next few storms will put us over!
Here is my prediction for the Friday-Saturday system:
ReplyDeleteBrandon - 2cm or less
Portage - 2 to 4cm
Melita - 2 to 4cm
Winnipeg - 4 to 8cm
Sprague - 8 to 12cm.
Steinbach - 8 to 12cm.
Morden - 8 to 12cm.
Winter Storm Watch issued for South-eastern Manitoba.
ReplyDeleteThe potential for 10 cm of snow is possible for all of Southern-eastern Manitoba with near blizzard once those winds kick in
The snow is really starting to pile up.
I've recorded 27 cm of snow so far this month in Charleswood, which is a little above average for December in Winnipeg (average = 20 cm) Tonight's snowfall will add to those amounts (looks like Winnipeg could get a good 10 cm out of this)
ReplyDeleteSnowfall at my site since Oct 1st is 42 cm.. (15 cm in November, 27 cm in Dec) Normal to the end of December is 47 cm so we will likely get above that average mark with tonight's snowfall.
Note that official snowfall observations (in cm) have not been available for Winnipeg airport since 2003 (they only record water equivalent amounts in mm since then)
Hi Rob,
ReplyDeleteWow, really surprising to know that such a cold and snowy city doesn't measure the snow depth anymore. Do you know what was the reason to stop doing it? Less money invested, job cuts...? You know, I find it a bit weird!
Well, nevertheless, I hope you have a nice snowfall tonight with decent accumulations. Enjoy it!
I won't post my snowfall predictions because I think all the amounts EC has put out are perfect under the current conditions. Although I am not sure whether blizzard conditions are really that likely. All the models I have looked at don't show anywhere near 40 G 60 winds. I wouldn't mind a big blizzard, but personally I think North 30km/h winds are most likely. Maybe the odd gust to 50 or 60, but not a sustained blizzard.
ReplyDeleteHi Mikel..
ReplyDeleteYes, it's odd that a cold weather place like Winnipeg no longer takes official snowfall observations, but I'm afraid it's a recent trend among many of our sites in Canada. The primary reason is the shift to automation of our observing network, which makes snowdepth measurements a challenge. We used to have human observers who would take ruler measurements of snowfall, then melt the snow for water equivalent. Now, we just get the water equivalent reading from the autostations. There is technology being tested that measures snowfall depth with a sonic sensor, but results are mixed in terms of accuracy. In the meantime, we have to rely on volunteer observers to take snowfall measurements to augment our climate database. Too bad.. Winnipeg has had official snowfall measurements from the airport site since 1938, and prior to that, from a downtown site since 1872.
Wow!
ReplyDeleteThe snow is sure taking a long time to get here!
I looked at the radar this morning before I left for work at 8:00 Am
at the snow band was close to Emerson!
8 hours later....It is still there!!
I see that the heavy returns are starting to move in now!
So snow should start in the next few hours!
Wow for Winnipeg so far as of 4:00am that snow was a bust. So far it looks like most of it just missed us as most of it just skipped by to the south of us.
ReplyDeleteAs of 8:20am North side of the city near the perimeter only a trace of snow.
ReplyDeleteGot 8cm so far here in Steinbach. I expect another centimeter before the snow ends. Today would then tie the "all-time" high snowfall total for the past year of 9cm!
ReplyDeleteOnly 1 cm or so here in Charleswood.. as mentioned, most snow fell south and east of Winnipeg with about 7-8 cm.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like the models are showing some snow for tonight!'
ReplyDeleteMaybe 2 - 4 cm!
Environment Canada is calling for nothing !
Hmmmm!
Any thoughts>?
What I see is 2cm for Western Manitoba, 2 to 5cm for the Red River Valley, and almost 5cm for Eastern Manitoba. Winnipeg would be in the 2 to 4cm range, and Steinbach in the 3 to 5cm range.
ReplyDeleteCall me crazy but I think blizzard conditions are possible tomorrow morning in the RRV. 925mb winds of 40 to 60km/h according to the ETA, and 60 to 75km/h winds at 850mb. Both of these altitudes show aligned North-West winds. The surface is also forecast to be North-West. I would predict 40km/h gusting to 60km/h winds in Emerson, and 35km/h gusting to 55km/h winds in Winnipeg. Therefore Emerson would probably have a blizzard until almost noon tomorrow. EC does have NW 30 G 50 winds already in the forecast. If anything Emerson would be the only city to experience a blizzard.
Of course that whole forecast relies on enough fluffy snow to fall tomorrow morning.
Scott where is this system comming from? Are you talking about the system over Saskatchwan right now or is it developing somewhere else?
ReplyDeleteYes I am talking about the system in Saskatchewan right now.
ReplyDeleteI expect the Northern area of precipitation in Saskatchewan to weaken slightly, and I expect a more southern area of snow to form. The northern and southern precipitation shields will merge over Western Manitoba, and heavier snow will fall to the south. Places like Dauphin could receive 2 to 4cm, but generally 2cm in Western Manitoba. The amounts I gave earlier are still valid in my opinion. NWS in Grand Forks is predicting 3 to 8cm of snow along the border.
The latest NAM run shows a general 2cm over Southern Manitoba tonight. Possibly 2 to 4cm in the southern RRV and SE MB. My blizzard prediction is becoming less likely, however I will wait for the next GFS run before I completely withdraw it.
ReplyDeleteScott
ReplyDeleteWhere do you see this NAM run and GFS run? Hope that is not too stupid of a question?
That isn't a stupid question at all. When I first started watching the weather I couldn't find these model websites either. Here is the link:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
I am waiting for the 18Z GFS run. The 18Z NAM run is already posted.
I withdraw my blizzard prediction. There will be plenty of fresh snow, but the wind won't be strong enough. The highest wind speed one could hope for is NW 30 G 50. I am not even certain that is possible, but definately nowhere near blizzard conditions.
ReplyDeleteOnly got a trace of snow here in Winnipeg last night.. looks like 2 to 5 cm closer to the US border. Ho hum weather.. Not like down in my native Niagara region of southern Ontario. Last week they got 3 storms giving them 40-50 cm of snow, then Saturday they shot up to +16C melting all the snow they had, then yesterday they topped it off with a windstorm giving 100-120 km/h wind gusts. Now THAT'S weather!
ReplyDeleteOur weather is really boring sometimes, and cold too...Although it could be worse...we could live in Saskatchewan....
ReplyDeleteAn intriguing discussion is worth comment.
ReplyDeleteI do think that you need to publish more on this subject, it might
not be a taboo matter but typically people do not speak about these topics.
To the next! Best wishes!!
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