A line of severe thunderstorms has developed over SW Manitoba this afternoon, bringing hail as large as ping pong balls between Melita and Virden and loonie size hail just south of Melita. This line is moving east at 40 km/h and has the potential to produce additional large hail and damaging wind gusts of 90 to 100 km/h. This line will continue moving east through the afternoon, possibly reaching the Red River valley this evening. We'll have to see if these storms remain severe by that time.
Rob...
ReplyDeleteLooks like the southern portion of the squall line has really intense thunderstorms !
While the northern portion has turned into a heavy rain event!
Golf ball size hail reported at the Hwy 83 border crossing south of Melita. South end definitely the worst part of the line right now..
ReplyDeleteWill be interesting to see if these storms can hold together. The storms are moving away from a narrow moisture axis into drier, more stable air. The moisture pooling ahead of the trough seems to be mainly from evapotranspiration. The low level jet which has been pumping copious moisture from the gulf of mexico into the central plains and ohio valley in recent weeks... has been suppressed by a large surface high. Without that forcing it will be tough for the storms to continue after dark.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the line of thunderstorms is approaching Portage .
ReplyDeleteCould be some hail and strong winds with that cell!!
Looks like the storms might lose strength as they approach the Red River Valley. Around Emerson, and along the border some of the stronger ones might stay severe but I don't think the more Northern cells will stay intense.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow looks interesting for South-Eastern Manitoba. Perhaps a repeat of today. The cold front will swing through by early afternoon, triggering thunderstorms early on. SB and MLCAPEs should reach 2000 J/kg or higher, which is similar to today.
Portage recorded a wind gust of 82 km/h as of 4:35 p.m
ReplyDeleteTake a look at this...Souris had a
ReplyDeletepeak wind gust of 165km/h!!
http://tgs.gov.mb.ca/climate/DisplayImage.aspx?StationID=souris208
WHAT!!!!!
ReplyDeleteAre you kidding me?????
Wait....Environment Canada even states that in there thunderstorms warning!!!
WOW!!!!!
That has got to be the strongest wind gust I ever did see!!
Winnipeg is now in the Watch, so WATCH out! I hope those storms stay together until Winnipeg, if so they will be in good shape to hit the airport weather station. They have definately weakened, but I guess the continued heat and steep lapse rates along with marginal instability will keep them close to severe limits for wind gusts.
ReplyDeleteDewpoint is now up to 12 degrees in Winnipeg, and up to 14 in Emerson...perhaps the storms will stay severe!
ReplyDeleteHere the temperature is 26.3 and the dewpoint is 9, but I think as the storms approach the DP will rise (as seems to be the case in other regions).
Looking behind the squall line, it seems as if more storms are bubbling up. In our forecast on weatheroffice, it now appears as if that may be more of the reason for the watch, as it states that a few showers or storms this evening, then clearing near midnight, then another chance of storms.
ReplyDeleteWill stay tuned and if I can find my darn camera, will take some pictures of the storms!
If those storms bubbling up along the MB/SK border can stay isolated there may be a chance they could turn super cellular. Given the extreme instability (i.e. SBCAPES 3000J/kg+, and LIs of -10+) there could be some good rotation.
ReplyDeleteI hope those storms collide with Winnipeg for you guys to see. From what the RADAR shows right now I would guess the wind gust potential is still the greatest risk. Cloud tops are high, so I would expect some hail but whether that hail is to severe limits remain to be seen.
The line of storms is about to enter Winnipeg. It appears to be somewhat bowed out indicating strong winds coming down from aloft. However the northern end has degenerated into an area of stratiform rain with a few rumbles of thunder possible.
ReplyDeleteI think the excitement is over for Winnipeg. Looks like most of the electrical activity is south of us.
ReplyDeleteAll this activity was associated with the trough.
ReplyDeleteRemember guys, there's still a cold front to our west, so activity is a potential again later on tonight.
Well well... the northern end of that line finally decided to dry up just as it reached the city. The edge of precip has been sitting near the west perimeter for almost an hour. Interestingly, some cells blew up east of the city.
ReplyDeleteThe trough is progged to be over the red river valley by dawn tomorrow. I would be surprised if the convection continued overnight as there is no low level jet to support it.
However.. there is a blocking pattern in place. There is an upper low over eastern which is holding back the upper ridge and ultimately the surface trough. It is possible that the front could stall out further west.. but the best chance for convection looks like diurnal storms east of Winnipeg tomorrow afternoon.
I am looking forward to seeing what happens tomorrow in South-Eastern Manitoba. I didn't expect to see anything big today East of Portage, due to the lack of moisture and good instability. Tomorrow on the other hand will be interesting. Depending on where the trough is oriented could mean a lesser or greater severe weather threat for Winnipeg. According to most of the models Winnipeg will be right on the edge.
ReplyDeleteHaha, in the future next week, the GFS is predicting a big outbreak, with CAPE over 5000 J/Kg., LI's of -13, dewpoints of 72F.
ReplyDeleteHow much of this is true? We'll have to wait and see, though I personally believe that the threat likely wont be as dramatic when it gets here (if it does! :P)
I saw that too, actually some good shear comes along with it (maybe an Elie style outbreak??).
ReplyDeleteEvery June we get a couple good chances, and I think it is about time for one of those!
I just looked at the GFS.. maybe you can see where this is going.
ReplyDeleteNext week Thursday/Friday has very "Elie/Pipestone" characteristics to it. A very strong low level jet, along with an extremely unstable atmosphere (ML and SBCAPEs at or in excess of 5000J/kg), and a strong low will park itself over South-Eastern SK. Day one is a a more Elie type setup with the best shear of the Red River Valley. And day two is neutral, with most areas of Southern MB seeing the same level of risk. It looks like a warm front will park itself somewhere North of Winnipeg, and allow a gulf airmass to surge North with dewpoints of 20 + degrees.
Of course the GFS doesn't have the best reputation for long-range forecasts, but as I have noted it has become much more accurate this Spring. I am not saying it forecasts Day 10 to a T, but it gives a great long-range idea. It has shown very warm temperatures next week for awhile now, along with good moisture. I don't believe this severe weather risk will materialize exactly as forecast, but I do think something BIG will happen (plus it is around the same time as the "super outbreaks" of last year!)
I, along with many other am I sure, will be watching this VERY closely!
That report of 165 km/h wind gust from Souris ag-wx station (peak gust 187 km/h) is suspect. There were no other reports anywhere near that speed, and no reports of damage in the area, which you would expect with F2 type winds. Doppler at the time was showing winds of 45-50 kt aloft, which would support straight line winds of 90-100 km/h or so.. but nothing like 165-190 km/h. Perhaps there was an electrical short in the wind sensor as the rain and wind blew in..
ReplyDeleteSo why then would environment Canada even mention that in there severe thunderstorm warnings????
ReplyDeleteyesterday they were telling the public about 160 km/h wind gusts!!
SPCAPE already in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range across Southern Manitoba. I hope we see some storm initiation this afternoon!!
ReplyDeleteA thunderstorm chance has been added to the forecast now, so we'll see what happens.
ReplyDeleteBtw, anybody else listening to CJOB? Dave Carlsen and the Fighting Prairie Weather Dogs are on there right now, and have been since about 11:10 am
Thats not fair...
ReplyDeleteThere are watches both West and East of the Red River Valley, but we are being short-changed again. Although I think we may be included in the watch later this afternoon/early evening because the atmosphere is equally unstable in the RRV.
A storm with supercellular characteristics has formed West of Dauphin. This cell has been tornado warned, and looks particularly intense. I would expect very strong wind gusts, and very large hail out of that storm even if there is no tornado.
ReplyDeleteA quick but harsh storm system passed through western Manitoba Thursday, dropping hailstones as big as golf balls in some rural communities.
ReplyDelete“We saw anywhere from pea- to half golf-ball-sized hail,” said Trev Williamson, parts manager at Van L Equipment in Reston.
Williamson witnessed close to 25 millimetres of rain in a span of 15 minutes.
Just south of Coulter, at the Highway 83 border crossing, golfball-sized hailstones were reported, while loonie-sized hail dropped down near Melita, according to Environment Canada meteorologist Rob Paola.
“There were upwards of 20 millimetres of rain in Rapid City and Melita,” he said. “It was a pretty good dump of rain as it went through.”
- Brandon Sun
Some towering clouds outside my door here in Winnipeg!!
ReplyDeleteLooks like there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms!!!
Looks like an exciting week for severe weather. Today looks like the start of an active week, with the words "Risk of a severe thunderstorm" in the EC forecast for many parts of
ReplyDeleteSouthern Manitoba. The excitement continues Monday with a very significant risk of severe weather in Southern Manitoba. Tornado Videos.net has suggested they will likely head North today or tomorrow to chase this event.
The rest of the week will probably see more severe weather chances with Wednesday/Thursday also looking interesting. Hopefully we will finally see something cook up in the Red River Valley.
getting some thunder here in Transcona...
ReplyDeleteI got huge raindrops and small hail in St. Vital. The rate wasn't all that high (actually pretty low precip rate, just the size of the raindrops amazed me.
ReplyDeleteIntense cell just exploded north of the city!!!
ReplyDeleteIt is going to go right through the city!!
Look OUT!!!!
Brief downburst of rain, slightly smaller than pea-sized hail, in the Maples (NW Winnipeg).
ReplyDeleteThunderstorms today erupting along a well defined lake breeze convergence zone between Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba. N-S convection axis cuts right through the middle of Winnipeg, with storms pretty much confined to the east end, nothing but blue skies in the west.
ReplyDeleteJon!!!
ReplyDeleteare you getting a good thunderstorm right now????
Looks like some good storms starting to fire on radar!!!
A quasi-stationary event...someone is going to get some heavy rain!
ReplyDeleteThose storms are developing quite rapidly, hopefully we can all get something to talk about today!
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ReplyDeleteALERT! I saw a FUNNEL CLOUD! I got a picture of it. It lasted 20 seconds beofre dissipating. this is going to be reported to EC right now!
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