It's been a wet week over southern MB with 3 major rain events since last Friday. An average of 100 mm of rain has fallen in Winnipeg over the past 6 days according to city rain gauges, ranging from 80 mm over southwest areas of the city to 115 mm over northeast sections. Here at my site in Charleswood, I've picked up 90 mm since Friday, with 80-85 mm at the Winnipeg airport, and 85 mm at the Forks. This has quickly alleviated any concerns about dry soil conditions across the Red River valley and across Southern MB.. with standing water now appearing in ditches and low lying areas. Amazing how quickly things can change in Southern MB!
The good news is that it looks like drier and warmer weather will be on tap next week, with no major weather systems moving through the Dakotas (a common source for heavy rain in early summer) Hopefully this signals the change to a much needed warm weather pattern over southern MB, which has seen a below normal temperature pattern since April 21st (past 7-8 weeks)
Looks like next week will be in the mid to high twenties, with plenty of severe weather chances. I have recorded 75.0mm of rainfall so far this month.
ReplyDeleteSome storms are starting to fire off along the Red River Valley. In ND numerous severe thunderstorm warnings are out, I anticipate some of this action will move North in the next while.
We are currently getting side swiped by a thunderstorm here in Transcona; pretty good lightning show and heavy downpour.
ReplyDeleteIn St. Vital here, there is no precipitation falling. But, we are seing frequent lightning, strong winds, beautiful yet ominous clouds, and even a double rainbow. I took some pictures, which will be uploaded later to my photobucket account.
ReplyDeleteJust got a brief thunderstorm here in Charleswood with 2.5 mm of rain in 5 minutes (max rate 58 mm/hr) and some pea size hail.
ReplyDeleteNow, another brief storm. This one brought dark clouds, a bit of heavy rainfall, and some pea sized hail. Things have cleared out fast here, with the moon out now right behind these cells.
ReplyDeleteGot two good non-severe storms here as well. The first one came with heavy rain (30 to 40mm/hr), a couple flash of lightning as well as some claps of thunder. Overall just a garden variety storm.
ReplyDeleteThe second storm looked more impressive as it approached, and appeared a solid yellow red colour on RADAR. Once it arrived very heavy rain fell (209.4mm/hr), some pea sized hail, gusty winds (I estimate 50 to 80km/h), as well as numerous flash of lightning/claps of thunder.
Daily rainfall of 7.4mm, along with a peak wind gust of 47km/h (my station underestimates wind due to the surrounding trees). Usually 50km/h gusts at my station correlate to a day with 50km/h G 70km/h winds...so about a 70km/h gust (rough estimate). Some very beautiful cloud formations were also visible, I will try and remember to post some tomorrow...
Looks like the "heat wave" next week is still holding out. Along with this numerous chances of severe storms, and maybe some real tornadoes? This is coming at around the same time as the Elie/Pipestone anniversary. I can honesty say that I hope severe storms come soon, whether that be on those days or not. Of course I don't want an Elie repeat, but tornadoes spinning out in an open field can't do much if any damage.
That is a lot of rain.
ReplyDeleteWe have swampy fields here in SW Alberta with 50mm.
How are the crops fairing there?
Are they far enough along to handle the moisture?
Around here the majority have just gotten rooted and only a few inches tall and may have made it out OK if we get some heat soon, the fields that were seeded late and were just coming up look to have some problems with standing water.
It's time for some warmer weather.
Lots of showers and thunderstorms starting to form now
ReplyDeleteCould be an interesting day!
Tornado Watch issued for SE Manitoba including the City of Winnipeg.
ReplyDeleteCold core I assume?
Yes !
ReplyDeleteGarden variety thunderstorms today!!
With the chance of a tornado!!
I believe the watch was issued in response to a funnel cloud report near St. Andrews, just north of the city.
ReplyDeleteWe'll have to watch the skies today.
I live in St.Andrews. There were some dark ominous looking clouds a half hour ago but I didn't see any funnel clouds. I guess these things form and dissipate very quickly.
ReplyDeleteYes another cold-core day...Better than nothing but I much prefer the real thing. When I went outside I could see numerous towering cumulus clouds, with the cool temperatures outside it doesn't surprise me in the least that there is a tornado watch out.
ReplyDeleteCorrect.. another cold core funnel day with some brief touchdowns possible, similar to what we've seen on a few days over the past couple of weeks. Tornadoes in this type of environment are generally weak and short lived, but some can be strong enough to cause F1 or even F2 damage in extreme cases. Hence the tornado watch.
ReplyDeleteNote however that it is extremely difficult if not impossible to forecast cold core touchdowns since rotation is usually on a scale below the resolution of the radar, and tornado lifespan is often less than the radar scan update itself. The watch is the most prudent method of alerting people to the potential development of these short lived events.
Yes I can certainly understand any weather service's dilemma for this situation.
ReplyDeleteNow lets get back to our seemingly favourite thing on this blog...Severe thunderstorm speculation, ha ha.
Looks like tomorrow will be another "day to watch" CAPE values of 1000 to 2000J/kg are forecast to form along the Red River Valley, and points around it. Moderate instability will be present across virtually all of Southern Manitoba tomorrow South of the MB Lakes. A trough from an approaching low will settle basically along the RRV by late afternoon/evening and reasonable speed shear will come in from the West. I am guessing we will see a similar situation that North-Western Minnesota saw yesterday...mostly large hail. Although areas East of the Red River Valley are the favoured area for severe storms tomorrow, almost anywhere where that moderately unstable atmosphere is present will run the risk of seeing an isolated severe storm.
Interestingly enough, there's actually small streamers coming off the lakes this moring. One off Lake Winnipeg has diminished, but one off Lake Manitoba is still going. Judging by radar, only light drizzle if anything is being felt by people under it.
ReplyDeleteThe WRF shows the potential for a round of strong thunderstorms in Western Manitoba on Wednesday. CAPE in excess of 2000J/kg, moderate unidirectional shear, and cold upper level temperatures could set the stage for a widespread severe hail/wind outbreak that day.
ReplyDeleteIt will be something to watch, as the warmer temperatures come in the severe weather chances will obviously increase.
It's 5:50 p.m. Sunday and the skies over downtown have just gotten much darker.
ReplyDeleteI sense a t-storm with heavy downpours coming our way.
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ReplyDelete