Wednesday, June 04, 2008

Not much rain last night.. Significant rain possible Friday

Well the rain promised for last night and today fizzled over much of southern MB, with only light amounts of 5 mm or less reported in most areas. Here in Winnipeg, we had some light showers move in last evening giving amounts less than 1 mm, but the area of rain quickly dissipated overnight.  Attention now turns to a more potent system developing over the Northern Plains Thursday which has the potential to spread significant rainfall amounts across Southern MB by Friday.  This system will be tapping a warm moist airmass from the southern US, producing numerous showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Plains Thursday along with severe thunderstorms. This area of showers and thunderstorms will be moving northward into southern MB Thursday night into Friday morning, giving heavy rain at times. Models are indicating a potential of 25 mm of rain in most areas by Friday with up to 50 mm possible in more persistent showers and thunderstorms.  So if you're still waiting for a good soaking rain in southern MB.. Friday may be the day! Stay tuned..   

20 comments:

  1. It has been one cold spring so far. During the day the temperature just barely climbs to 20C, but the wind is still remains freezing cold. Then temperatures drop like a stone as soon as the sun starts to set in the evening. There is just no heat to get our garden growing! In three months it'll be all over so come on weather lets get some 30C heat going!

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  2. We're all waiting for it.. May was the 5th consecutive month below normal here. It's gotta turn around sometime. Here's hoping it will for July and August as EC's latest summer outlook suggests..

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  3. Yes it looks like a good rainfall for Friday. The models have been hinting at a good soaking rain later this week for awhile now, and here it is! The GFS has been much more accurate lately. It obviously doesn't pin down exact temperatures or precipitation 10 days out, but usually gives you a fairly good idea of what the weather will be like in the 5 to 10 day range. Considering the type of winter and spring forecasts it was putting out, I think that model had leveled out considerably in the past weeks.

    I am also ready for some heat... When the warmest temperature this year has only been 25, and it is early June you know something is wrong.

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  4. ..and forget about that forecast high of 24 for Winnipeg Friday. With all that rain around and the low tracking over SE Manitoba.. temperatures will likely be in the midteens at best for Winnipeg.

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  5. As with any system that has precipitation that is largely convectively driven, rainfall amounts with this system will be variable and difficult to forecast accurately. Here are some of the models first guesses with Winnipeg rainfall amounts Thursday night into Friday..

    GEM... 37 mm
    GLB... 38 mm
    GFS... 24 mm
    NAM... 15 mm

    Only the NAM fails to show any precipitation moving in Thursday night. Model concensus seems to indicate highest amounts with this system will be over Red River valley and SE Manitoba with lesser amounts over western MB.. but we'll see how this system evolves tomorrow. Should be quite active south of the border tomorrow afternoon/evening.

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  6. I have to agree with Rob's predictions. The GFS, GEM, and WRF all give a similar solution when it comes to rainfall accumulations. The WRF is on the lower side with around 25 to 30mm when all is said and done Saturday. The GEM is suggesting more like 30 to 40mm, and the GFS also suggests more like 30 to 40mm.

    This whole system will likely be impacted by convection as Rob pointed out. I don't think it will be very easy to predict the rainfall totals until we see what the system has in store (once it develops). Thunderstorms could through the whole forecast out by significant margins...I am looking forward to watching this develop.

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  7. SPC forecasting a large high risk area of severe weather today over Central Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley due to this unseasonably strong storm system. Strong dynamics together with warm moist environment will lead to a significant severe weather outbreak today and tonight south of the border. Stay tuned..

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  8. Tornado video. net is calling this a HISTORIC tornado outbreak!!!!
    I guess time will tell!!!

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  9. Rain at times heavy tomorrow!!!
    and thunderstorms too!!!!
    OH BOY!!!

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  10. EC is calling for 45 to 60mm for the Steinbach area. Personally I think this is too high, a more reasonable estimate at this point would be more like 25 to 35mm. According to the GEM about 30mm should fall with this storm. The WRF and GFS are in relatively good agreement with the GEM at about 25mm.

    As for those Southern storms...I wish that could be us right now! I definately looks like a big outbreak. When I woke up this morning and saw the size of the high risk area I knew something serious was on the way. As of 5:30 a line of supercells is crossing the plains, there aren't too many tornado warnings out right now. I would expect the number of supercells and tornadic storms to dramatically increase in the coming hours.

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