A developing low pressure system over southern Saskatchewan will tap an increasingly moist and unstable airmass over the Dakotas to trigger scattered thunderstorms over North Dakota today. Some of the storms over the Dakotas are expected to become severe later today into this evening with much of the northern Plains in a slight to moderate risk of severe thunderstorms. As the low pressure system advances east, showers and thunderstorms will spread over southern MB tonight.. with the potential for locally heavy rain (20-30 mm).. intense lightning.. and hail, especially over southwestern MB. This activity will push through Winnipeg and the Red River Valley Friday with drier conditions moving in by evening as a dry slot pushes in. Cooler unsettled weather will return for Saturday in behind the low with brisk northwest winds and a few showers over southern MB. Highs will likely struggle to reach 20 degrees Saturday. Sunny and warmer weather is expected for Sunday Monday and Tuesday with highs likely approaching the 30 degree mark by the July 1st holiday.
Looks like some clearing is taking place in southern Manitoba and that is allowing the temp and moisture to increase!
ReplyDeleteLooks like some thunderstorms will be firing off in the evening hours!
Environment Canada in their discussion even mentioning the potential for heavy rain tonight!
Will be interesting to see what happens. Large scale ascent associated with a lead disturbance over Montana has access to decent moisture and instability. Only problem is the lack of a clear focusing mechanism. With the loss of daytime heating and the resurgent low level jet focused way down in Iowa... storms may fizzle by the wee hours of the morning.
ReplyDeleteIts also not clear what will happen as the main upper low wobbles over us Fri nite/Sat. If moisture doesn't get cut off to the disturbance, then we might get stuck in deformation band precip (light steady rain) and miserable temps... hopefully not.
Rob!
ReplyDeleteI have a question that I would like to ask and just maybe you might have an answer!!!
I was looking at the radar screen tonight and noticed something odd!
If you look carefully I noticed that there is a very THIN ribbon of radar returns that seems to be moving toward Winnipeg!
I know that it is NOT rain!!
Is it a outflow boundary????
It seems to move like a gust front...moving fast and then stalling out a certain location!!!
any ideas?????
I saw the same thing tonight, I took it for an outflow boundary (I was hoping it would trigger some thunderstorms!).
ReplyDeleteInstability has built in over Southern Manitoba. LIs of -7 around Winnipeg, and CAPE of 1000 to 2000J/kg over most of Southern MB. Wind shear is lacking, but storms seem to be surviving just fine West of Winnipeg in a weakly sheared environment.
Please excuse my lack of twchnical knowledge. I'm a real weather watcher but lack familiarity with many of the technical terms used here.I have a simple question: until about 10 days ago we were enduring a miserable spring with cool temps. All of a sudden it changed. Why? Was it Las Nina fading? I can't seem to find an answer (but am happy warm weather finally arrived
ReplyDeleteWell I believe we were just stuck in a "dip in the jetstream"
ReplyDeleteWhich would allow all the chilly air to drain into southern manitoba!
I would also assume that there was a blocking pattern of some sort so that the airmass that was over us could not exit the region!
I also see that environment Canada has updated the forecast tonight for Winnipeg!! @ 9:09 pm.
ReplyDeleteStating that there is a 30% chance of thunderstorms in Winnipeg.
What were they thinking????
There gonna have to change it again....
cause I see the thunderstorms are heading this way....
Fairly complex weather pattern over eastern prairies/upper midwest. Surface low to our southeast associated with lead disturbance tapped into moist low level flow. Models mishandled northward extent of this moisture fetch. Impressive MCS passed south of the Manitoba border.
ReplyDeleteTrowal/cold front associated with main upper low off to out west. With plenty of surface moisture and cold air aloft moving in... should get convection filling in this afternoon.
Fairly complex weather pattern over eastern prairies/upper midwest. Surface low to our southeast associated with lead disturbance tapped into moist low level flow. Models mishandled northward extent of this moisture fetch. Impressive MCS passed south of the Manitoba border.
ReplyDeleteTrowal/cold front associated with main upper low off to out west. With plenty of surface moisture and cold air aloft moving in... should get convection filling in this afternoon.
Sorry for double post... not sure how that happened... absolutely torrential downpours the last 30 minutes in central Winnipeg. Slow moving cell formed right over central Winnipeg and has dumped large amounts of rain. It sure looks like heating over the core of the city triggered this intense cell.
ReplyDeleteOne last note... I believe environment canada should issue a warning for that storm. The RADAR is underestimating rainfall rates in that cell.. perhaps because it is so small. I believe that cell has the potential to dump 50 mm in short period.
ReplyDeleteI have never seen so many tornado warnings issued at the same time. I count 12 for southern Manitoba right now!
ReplyDeleteSome fairly intense storms have formed...watch out for large hail and tornadoes!
You were right Daniel...severe thunderstorm warning for Winnipeg, that specifically mentions heavy rainfall.
ReplyDeleteCAPE of 1000 to 2000J/kg is making things very interesting...I would expect many thunderstorms to pop up as the afternoon goes on.
Yeah Scott...
ReplyDeleteIt is still pouring here... almost an hour later! Wish I had a rain gauge.
30 mm of rain at the U of W weather station past hour.. not a drop in Charleswood.
ReplyDeleteI collected 6 mm near the Kenaston/Grant intersection. The variation in rainfall is very high it seems.
ReplyDeleteWhat hit us yesterday???
ReplyDeleteWas that a MICROBURST????
The differences in rainfall amounts around the city really is amazing!!!
We had a thunderstorm cell develop right over downtown around 2 pm and it hardly moved over the next hour.. dumping heavy rain downtown. It slowly moved over northeastern suburbs giving more heavy rain there before a last squall around 5 pm moved through the whole city. A general rain fell overnight across all the city giving another 15-25 mm. Heaviest rain totals over the past 24 hours fell downtown and northeast Winnipeg where unofficial amounts of up to 77 mm were observed.
ReplyDeleteI don't want to know how much worse the mosquitoes will get after all this rain. I have standing water all over my lawn. Make sure you stock up on repellent if you plan on doing anything outdoors.
ReplyDeleteChris in Westwood Wpg.
ReplyDeleteI Got 18 mm in my rain gauge yesterday.
Don't understand why the city started spraying in my area last night given the wind & rain in the forecast. oh well.
My total for this system was 30 mm near the Kenaston/Grant interchange. It was a good one because it was mostly steady rain instead of a downpour.
ReplyDelete