It was a record breaking mild day across much of southern MB today, as southerly winds pumped in an unseasonably mild airmass from the US. Temperatures reached 18.8C at Winnipeg airport this afternoon, eclipsing the old record of 18.3C for Nov 3rd, set back in 1903. The 18.8C reading is also Winnipeg's warmest November temperature since Nov 5 1975, when a high of 23.9C was recorded, Winnipeg's warmest November temperature ever. The 18.8C reading ranks as Winnipeg's 7th warmest November day since records began in 1872. It was even milder southeast of Winnipeg with 20C readings in places like Sprague and Steinbach. Amazing weather for early November in southern MB!
TWN's forecast calls for lows of -20C and colder next Sunday and Monday. Sounds hard to believe after a warm day like today! Does that look even remotely possible?
ReplyDeleteTo get -20C this early, you would need a good snowbase, along with clear skies and light winds. We'll see how much snow this next system brings..
ReplyDeleteLooks like the computer models are trending more toward a snowstorm for western Manitoba while eastern Manitoba starts a rain turning to a heavy wet snow Thursday night
ReplyDeleteMaybe even some frezzing rain with sleet thrown in for good measure!
Either way you look at it southern Manitoba will see there first "snow" of the year!!
Currently it is looking like rain on Wednesday for SE MB, then rain changing to snow and freezing rain late Thursday morning and afternoon. The WRF points to very heavy freezing rain on Thursday, while the NAM and GFS point towards heavy snowfall on Thursday and Friday morning. The 850mb temperatures are the parameter to watch, as they will decide the precipitation types.
ReplyDelete...Bearing in mind the above synopsis is entirely for SE MB. Western MB should see primarily snow the entire time, while the RRV and South-Central MB will see more snow than rain, but still a good 5 to 15mm of rain at least.
Scott Im a little confused. Both Enviroment Canada and Weather net are all saying Winnipeg will be mostly rain with possibility of flurries on friday and saturday but your saying we'll see more snow than rain on Thursday?
ReplyDeleteThe models are showing mostly snow for Winnipeg on Thursday. Rob would have to correct me, but I think the forecast you are seeing on the Environment Canada website is a computer forecast. This means it probably took only one models opinion on the result. That means if one model forecast shows all rain, that is what will be shown on the EC website, even though most models are showing a primarily snow event. The Weather Network is all computer model forecasts as far as I know, so the same deal there.
ReplyDeleteFor now I would expect rain on Wednesday, possible rain or freezing rain Thursday morning, switching to snow by noon, and all snow Friday. The Precipitation amounts are going to be tricky. Currently it doesn't look like more than 5 to 10cm of snow is likely in Winnipeg, but that could change quickly.
Cannot even rule out a couple rumbles of thunder tonight!
ReplyDeleteThunderstorms are expected to develop in north Dakota tonight and all the heavy rain is heading north~
It is gonna be a thunderstorm on one side of North Dakota while on the other side of the state their could be blizzard like conditions!
Scott..
ReplyDeleteEC forecasts are based on model output from the regional and global models.. with a precipitation-type algorithm that determines precipitation type based on several factors, not just 850 mb temperatures. EC's regional model is showing rain all day Thursday for Winnipeg/Red River valley and SE MB changing to a band of freezing rain/ice pellets along the western RRV, then snow over western MB. The precip-type chart shows a gradual change to snow over Winnipeg/RRV Thursday night with perhaps 5 cm of wet snow by Friday morning. This chart also maintains pcpn as rain over SE MB through Friday morning.
Snowfall totals with this system will be tough to forecast given the uncertainty in timing and location of the rain/IP/snow line, terrain effects, pcpn rate intensity (which can affect rain/snow transition), as well as melting effects of the still warm ground.
At this point, preliminary snowfall accumulations by Friday could range from trace-2 cm over SE MB, 5 cm over Red River valley including Winnipeg (perhaps 10 cm north and west of the city into the southern Interlake), and 10-20 cm along the western red River valley/SW MB areas with the highest amounts over higher elevations.
It will be a tricky forecast...Thanks for the clarification Rob.
ReplyDeleteThe latest runs are in complete disagreement again. The EC models, as Rob said, show more rain than snow in SE MB. They also show more rain than than previously expected in the RRV. The WRF and GFS, on the other hand, are showing more snow than rain in the same regions.