The weather sure has been dull here lately, with little in the way of sunshine since winter arrived last week. Other than some sunshine on Remembrance Day, the weather has been generally overcast and dreary since Nov 5th, or 8 of the past 9 days. There is hope that some sunshine will break through the clouds for awhile on Saturday, but another clipper system moving through southern MB Saturday night into Sunday morning will spread more cloud and a chance of snow, especially north and east of Winnipeg. Dry conditions are expected Monday before another threat of flurries by Tuesday. November can be a very cloudy month as colder air moves over still open lake waters, producing frequent clouds even in high pressure ridges. Or in other words.. No sun, no warmth, no wonder.. November!
GFS progged strong cold air advection at 850 mb (temps of almost -15 C) and RUC 'real time' model sounding depicts -11 C @ 850 mb over Winnipeg. However surface temps remained relatively stable. All that low level moisture from the lakes as per Rob's posting is at least trapping some heat at the surface?
ReplyDeleteHopefully we will not get too cold with our degraded snowpack and lingering clouds before the next clipper moves thru. The long range looks like a tug of war between very warm air coming up from the south west US and cold arctic air to our north. A series of clippers will try to drag some of that warmth over us, but according to GFS at least, fail...
I hear ya Rob!
ReplyDeleteIt has been a very dreary stretch of days!
It seems like all this low cloud is almost next to impossible to get rid of!
Even when a high pressure moves overhead it is a "DIRTY HIGH"
failing to clear the low clouds!
Some brief sunny breaks this morning~
ReplyDeleteWas kinda of nice while it lasted before the next batch of clouds move in !
Any chance of accumulation of snow tonight with this weak system??????
Models aren't showing much for southern MB tonight, and latest radar/surface observations show little happening right now. So I suspect a dusting if anything tonight.. with a couple of cm possible through the Interlake area. By the way, satellite shows no snow cover just south and east of Winnipeg, yet, snowcover is having a hard time disappearing here.
ReplyDeleteLooks like some lake effect streamers are coming off the lakes tonight!
ReplyDeleteSomeone is gonna pick up a few centimeters of snow!
Wow!
ReplyDeleteIt is gonna get down to -16 C tonight!
Better Plug the old car in !
We have close to 1cm here (0.2mm water equivalent to the total snowfall). I would expect to pick-up at least 2cm today, since I see more lake-effect bands forming over Lake Winnipeg.
ReplyDeleteIs there some sort of cold front that is gonna pass us today????
ReplyDeleteFrom a high of -2 C
all the way down to -16 C
and with a wind of 20 km/h it could produce a windchill of - 25 C
BRRRRRRR.....
I can tell you right now that it is very unlikely Steinbach will get to -16. Since this region has little to no snow we have failed to get much colder than -8 to -10, even on the coldest nights in places like Winnipeg and Brandon. I would suspect our low will likely be around -10 tonight, as long as the sky is mostly clear. If conditions are cloudy tonight, we will probably be in the -6 to -8 range.
ReplyDeleteSnowing pretty hard in Winnipeg right now. Looks like its comming right off the lakes
ReplyDeleteIt is actually sunny here on the west side of the city (St James)!
ReplyDeleteI see that the east side of the city is actually getting some heavy flurries.
Yes i was downtown at the time of the snow but a look to the west showed it all clear. It's now clear all over.
ReplyDeleteWow
ReplyDeleteDid it ever snow heavy for about 10 minutes.
Got about 2 centimeters in about 20 minutes in that heavy snow squall.
Yep.. we also got a quick 2 cm here in Charleswood between 4:30-6 pm. Really light fluffy stuff. Radar showed this convective snowshower affected mainly the west end of Winnipeg..
ReplyDeletewhoa!
ReplyDeleteit is already -12 C as of 9:00 p.m
and the skies have NOT even cleared yet!
Environment Canada might wanna look at there overnight low!!!
Rob now that the colder temps seem to be here is their anything in the forecast that looks like snow maybe 5cm or more
ReplyDeleteHi Rob!
ReplyDeleteI see winter has arrived in Winnipeg! I have one question: When do the lakes usually freeze up there? Judging by the temperature normals I've seen from Southern Manitoba, I suppose it must be at this time of the year, but I suppose there must be more things to take into account like the depth (just guessing here...).
Just curious on this issue ;) I hope you'll have sunnier weather, dull weather can be really tiring...
Thanks and see you!
Hi Mikel..
ReplyDeleteLake Winnipeg generally freezes over by late November or early December, but it can be a couple of weeks earlier or later depending on how cold or mild the weather pattern is. Our western lakes (Lake Manitoba/Lake Winnipegosis) generally freeze over faster than Lake Winnipeg because they're shallower and narrower. Our fall has been fairly mild this year so Lake Winnipeg is still open, but I suspect with colder weather here now, freeze up will occur rapidly over the next couple of weeks. Keep an eye on the Gimli webcam to see how the freeze up is progressing over the south basin of Lake Winnipeg.
How's the weather over in Spain these days?
Rob
A chilly low of -16C at Winnipeg airport this morning, but no one else in the Red River valley was near this value (although Gimli got down to -15c). In Winnipeg, low temperatures were generally around -10C according to sites within the city, while the CWB site in Rosser was the coldest nearby station at -13C. Once again, clear skies and a light northwest wind provided ideal conditions for cold air drainage at the airport site to produce those colder temperatures.
ReplyDeleteDaryl..
ReplyDeleteNo major snowfalls expected in Winnipeg area over the next few days.. Models are hinting at the potential for a fairly intense Alberta clipper developing later this week (Thu-Fri) but most show the snow from this system bypassing us to the west and south (SK into ND). Other than that.. models are indicating a fairly progressive zonal pattern over the next couple of weeks over us with up and down temperatures, but not a lot of snow. We'll see if that holds up..
Got down to -11 here in Steinbach. I suspect the couple centimeters of snow we received yesterday helped us to reach the minus double digits. Also cleared skies made a big difference.
ReplyDeleteIt seems like we only have a day or two's notice for these Alberta Clippers. They have been hard to predict precipitation amounts for so far this year, and often end up being much weaker or stronger than expected with little notice.
Thanks for the info Rob! I'll surely keep an eye on the Gimli webcam to see the freezing process. In this corner of Spain(Northern Atlantic Coast) the temperature is average lately but the weather has been terribly foggy and quite rainy for the last month.
ReplyDeleteIt's usual for this time of the year, but when you don't see the sun for weeks it's quite annoying... I certainly hope we'll see it soon!
BTW, I've been checking information about the lakes of Southern Manitoba and I didn't think they were so large! I knew Lake Winnipeg was very large, but I didn't know it was larger than Lakes Erie or Ontario... wow!
Frigid night so far. Already -18 here in Steinbach, and it is only 9:00.
ReplyDeleteIt will be cold tonight!
Impressive temperatures in the warm sector of the next clipper. Values are ranging from 10 to 20 C depending on mixing in extreme S Sask and Montana. Unfortunately for us, the models collapse this warm pocket many hundreds of kilometers to our south as the low traverses the international border.
ReplyDeleteThe roller coast ride will continue though... next Saturday and then next Tuesday will feature additional pushes of warm pacific air. If the models are correct Winnipeg will get in on the fun for a change... looks like we might actually see the grass again if we do not get much additional snow.
It would be nice to see some melting next week... but personally I've resigned myself to the belief that we're likely stuck with this snowcover for the rest of the winter. I'm very willing to be proven wrong though.. :)
ReplyDeleteIf only one of those clippers could bring some of that 20C air over us! Speaking of which, Medicine Hat is down to 7C after being 18C just two hours ago. Easy come, easy go..