Monday, July 04, 2011
Severe thunderstorms possible today over southern MB..
A cold front over western MB will interact with a warm and humid airmass over southern MB today to produce scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, a few likely severe especially over the Red River valley and eastern MB into NW Ontario. The main threat with the strongest storms will be golf ball size hail and 100 km/h wind gusts, which were reported with this system yesterday in Saskatchewan. In addition, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given the potential for supercells today. Stay tuned on today's severe weather threat..
Posted by rob at 9:37 AM
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Looks like we should see convection explode after 2 some time. A tornado is possible, especially in the early stages of development.ReplyDelete
Cells have popped north of Austin, MB as of 1 pm.. heading east at 50 km/h. Rapidly developing tops shot up to 15 km (45K feet) past hour.ReplyDelete
If the cell hits Winnipeg at all, it'll most likely hit the south end as it's going ESE on radar. Then again, it might go SE and not hit the city at all.ReplyDelete
Tornado warning now in effect for the cell near Carman. No funnel clouds reported, but is radar-detected, so take cover if you're in that area.ReplyDelete
1. Severe thunderstorm watch is now a tornado watch
2. Storms are now firing up in Winnipeg.
And one more thing: severe thunderstorm warning is now out for a whole crapload of places, including Winnipeg.ReplyDelete
Well at first seemed like south end would be hit hard... Of course, storm splits in two at last minute.ReplyDelete
The Teulon TS disappeareed in 20 minutes. Did it Merge nrth east or southwest??ReplyDelete
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This explains today very wellReplyDelete
Or click my name
Not a raindrop in South St-Vital!ReplyDelete
Nice storm here in Altona. Had a supercell literally blow up right over town. Very heavy rain, quarter size hail, and strong wind gusts. Very close CG lightning, too.ReplyDelete
Next threat looks to be Friday.
Special weather statement issued by Environment Canada for the severe weather over soutern Manitoba!!ReplyDelete
I was driving at Ness and Moray when that storm hit! Quarter size hail and heavy rain there. It sounded like quite the severe weather event today!ReplyDelete
Are there any confirmed tornado touchdowns from those supercells, or are any currently being investigated?ReplyDelete
Rob!! Did you do any storm chasing yourself today???ReplyDelete
No.. but I was virtually chasing storms on radar all afternoon! Mainly hail producers and heavy rain, with some strong winds gusts with storms over the southern Red River valley (over 100 km/h at Emerson) A couple of funnel cloud reports.. one from Winnipeg that appeared dubious (more like scud cloud) and another from near Gimli (that one looked more legit with radar showing a good mesocyclone with that storm as it crossed Lake Winnipeg)ReplyDelete
The cell near Carman looked increasingly severe on radar with a strengthening mesocyclone as the storm hooked right. That storm had a nice wall cloud associated with it with some rotation, but it never developed a funnel or tornado. But the potential was certainly there. It went on to produce tennis ball size hail between Lowe Farm and Morris.
Overall, an active but relatively quick severe weather outbreak.. with explosive development on many of the storms. Welcome to summer!
A cold front pushing into a hot and humid airmass produced a line of severe thunderstorms this afternoon across much of southern and Southeast Manitoba. The following is a table of severe weather reports received by Environment Canada today.ReplyDelete
..Time (CDT) .... Location ......... Weather.....
2:30-2:40 PM..... Carman ......... Pea-marble hail
2:30-2:45 PM .... Gimli .......... Pea-quarter hail
3:20 PM (EST) ... Lowe farm ...... tennis ball hail
3:30 PM ......... Winnipeg ....... Nickel-toonie hail
3:37 PM ......... Grand Beach .... Penny-Nickel hail
4:14 PM ......... Dominion City .. Nickel-quarter hail
4:44 PM.......... Gretna ......... Golf ball size hail
4:54 PM.......... Emerson ........ 107 kmh wind gust, pea size hail
4:55 PM ......... Lac du Bonnet .. 30 mm of rain in 15 minutes, Small trees down
Funnel clouds were also reported over East Winnipeg and southwest of Gimli.
How much rain fell in Charleswood?ReplyDelete
Only about 3 mm at my place with yesterday's afternoon storm.. most of the rain fell over northern and eastern Winnipeg with 10-15 mm in some spots. Little or no rain over southwest Winnipeg.. (south of Wilkes and west of St Mary's)ReplyDelete
I'd be leary about that "nothing but sunshine" forecast from Thursday through Monday. Models are indicating potential for showers and thunderstorms over RRV Friday night with a warm front and then again Saturday evening with a cold front. Days won't be washouts.. but I don't think we'll see 5 straight days without clouds or precip either. Those automated long range forecasts seem to have a sunny dry bias lately..ReplyDelete
Thanks for the update!ReplyDelete
My dad is going camping near Neepawa this weekend and he was wondering if it was going to be severe weather! Looks like he might need his rain gear!!
Rob, you're right about that. Models are showing a rather strong system for July affecting us Friday night and Saturday.ReplyDelete
As of right now, it looks like Friday night would be more of an elevated MCS threat with the potential for a good lightning show.
Saturday, depending on the amount of heating we can get, could be another outbreak. 2,000-4,000 J/KG of CAPE, 30-40 kts of shear, and lots of moisture with a strong frontal passage.
Something to definitely keep an eye on as we get closer.
One can sure hope so! The curse of 2011 with all these storms going around us continuesReplyDelete
Of course I have to leave Saturday... I might not even see a big storm this year. >=( lolReplyDelete
Nice little downpour over south end of Winnipeg.. only about 0.5 mm at my place in Charleswood, but up to 10 mm just to the south of me in Whyte Ridge..ReplyDelete
At least that at the Pony Corral Pembina near Bishop Grandin. Great time to install the dock and extend it into the river.ReplyDelete
Looks like some nice storms racing from the lakes toward Winnipeg. I hope they hold together!!!ReplyDelete
Any new thoughts on Friday night/Saturday?ReplyDelete
I think the models are a bit off regarding instability. Some are only showing around 1,000 J/KG of CAPE. I get the feeling that number is off. The system is quite strong for this time of the year plus we've got evapotranspiration on our side now, too..
Looks like a shelf cloud to my north ( In St James)It is kinda hard to tell in the dark, could get gusty winds later!!!ReplyDelete
What the heck? 30% per cent chance of showers clearing by midnight. Just after midnight I have a thunder storm going on with torrential rain and now mopping up water from the open windows. Man if the forecast could just be close.ReplyDelete
Honestly EC should really change their forecasting, it's rediculous that they can't hire a couple meterologists to work for them instead of using models that change ideas every 2 hours.ReplyDelete
Rob said "Those automated long range forecasts seem to have a sunny dry bias lately.."ReplyDelete
Lately, as in the last several years at (least on the Prairies).
What the model is showing is the risk of thunderstorms tomorrow night.ReplyDelete
As a matter of fact, I think every model is showing thunderstorms moving across southern Manitoba tomorrow night into Saturday morning.
Signs are pointing to severe thunderstorms developing in western North Dakota and southeastern Saskatchewan late tomorrow afternoon. They would then merge together and accelerate east in the form of a strong to severe MCS (thunderstorm complex). That activity would push across southern Manitoba overnight Friday.
Is it also possible that we could see some storms earlier than that? I'm seeing some pretty good warm advection along with a warm front pushing through earlier in the evening. We could be in for two rounds of storms if that occurs.
Sounds like a potential severe weather outbreak in western Manitoba today with a severe storm complex later for the RRV!
What are your thoughts on this episiode???
As noted by Derek and others, severe weather threat looking good for SE SK into SW MB later today into this evening, with storms likely transitioning into a MCS complex moving across southern MB (including RRV) tonight with hail, strong winds, and heavy rain as main threats. Don't have a lot of time today to go into more details.. but we'll be watching. I'll post a new thread on this event..ReplyDelete
By the way, excellent FOCN45 discussion this morning on today's severe weather potential. Cloud cover may be an issue for limiting severe weather development to our west. Will have to see how much that debris cloud can thin out today to elevate severe weather risk..ReplyDelete