Thursday, June 30, 2011
Steamy last day of June.. possible severe storms this evening?
It will be a steamy end to June as hot and muggy conditions spread over the Red River valley with temperatures climbing into the low 30s, and dewpoints in the uncomfortable 21-24C range. This will produce humidex values around 40C this afternoon which has prompted a humidex advisory to be issued for the RRV and southeast MB. Late today, a cold front will push through which may produce some strong to severe thunderstorms.. with large hail and damaging winds as the main threats. There is considerable uncertainty still as to if and where these storms will pop up.. so stay tuned today as the situation unfolds.
Posted by rob at 9:21 AM
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The difference between Humidex and Heat Index on OBS site is..?ReplyDelete
According to wiki ..In Canada, the similar humidex is used in place of the heat index. The humidex differs from the heat index in using the dew point rather than relative humidity.ReplyDelete
A 79F dewpoint in Hallock MN.ReplyDelete
So yes those isolated 80F dewpoints which we were uncertain will happen, will be out there!
It is like a sauna out there... and I'm loving every minute of it!!ReplyDelete
Re: Heat index vs humidex
Click on my name for blog entry from 2007 for more info on this subject.
Personally, I prefer the humidex reading.. I find the heat index used by NWS is too similar to the actual temperature.
41 humidex at Winnipeg airport as of 1 pm.. 30/24 Steamy!
I am loving it! Hope winnipeg gets a good storm out of it too (and that it wont miss us this time!)ReplyDelete
Lets see June or July 2007. Wasn't that a memorable heat wave for TornadoesReplyDelete
A humidex of 44 in Winnipeg as of 3:00pm, Oh my!ReplyDelete
Cold front appears to be on our doorstep.. hard to tell because feed of data from canadian stations is down in the RAP NCAR plots..ReplyDelete
Doubt we can get enough surface heating to break the cap (for Winnipeg and RRV atleast). Furthermore, the low level flow is SSW (not suffeciently backed)and LLJ is weak... not ideal for supporting tornadic supercells.
Looks like a bank of mid-level clouds and some weak elevated convection moving up in SW flow.. that may prove to be the coup de gras for surface based convection locally..ReplyDelete
It is really hard to tell on EC radar what is ground clutter and what are storms, storm to the east of Portage?? Interlake area??ReplyDelete
So a record high at CYWG today 34°C with 44 on the humidex. Enough with the heat already. Let's dial it back to normal so the folks along the Souris can work at dike building a little more comfortably.ReplyDelete
Winnipeg was the hottest spot in the country today with a high of 33.8C at YWG airport.. and 34.7C at the Forks. The 33.8C at the airport makes this the hottest day here in almost 4 years (since a 35.3C reading on July 29th 2007)ReplyDelete
Has it really been that long....WOW!ReplyDelete
I know we had some crummy summers but... I for one was taken by suprise by the high temp considering how moist the airmass was!
No storms in southern MB right now.. that's all ground clutter on the radar..ReplyDelete
Meanwhile further north.. Churchill had a strong thunderstorm roll through earlier this evening.. winds took out powerlines, and even blew a roof off a hotel.
Powerful storm hammers western ManitobaReplyDelete
CJOB News Team reporting
It was a miserable night in parts of western Manitoba...with powerful storms reportedly damaging buildings and knocking down Hydro poles in the Newdale area.
Wow, already 29. Maybe another 30C again today? Unexpected for sure.ReplyDelete
Yea, remember yesterday's public forecast for this afternoon, Temps falling to +19? Like this was a 'human' forecast. why does E.C. get it wrong so so many times??ReplyDelete
It's getting quite dry in South St. Vital with these hot temperatures!ReplyDelete
At least June 2011 was warmer than June 10 and 09.ReplyDelete
Will have to keep an eye on Monday.. models show trof moving though with a chance of showers or thunderstorms by late afternoon or evening. Ensembles have been hinting at some precip for Winnipeg late Monday for some time now. Winnipeg's "sunny" forecast for Monday does not reflect this potential. (Note that forecasts for all regions surrounding Winnipeg mention a 30% chance of showers Monday. The joys of automated forecasts..)ReplyDelete
Actually, June 2011 has been the warmest since 2007 according to Rob's Obs. I have no doubt the last week and a half of this month is what put us over the top.ReplyDelete
Not sure what to think of the ECMWF models for July. They've been persistent with the cooler and wetter pattern but they also said that about June, so who knows.
The First week of July is absolutely the best Srn MB week for BBQ N Beach holidays. Robs-Obs and ECs forecast confirms it.ReplyDelete
CPC has completely flipped their 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks, both now showing above normal temps for S. MB (both were showing below normal temps just on Friday and quite consistently for the last while!). Just another reason to take those long range model outlooks with a grain of salt!ReplyDelete
I'm stunned at how quickly we have flipped to hot and steamy weather!ReplyDelete
It seemed not to long ago it we would be be stuck in cool and rainy weather forever!
Some surprise showers and thunderstorms early this morning southwest of Winnipeg.. 10-20 mm of rain from just south of Brandon through Morden/Winkler area. Models hinted at some elevated warm frontal convection moving into southern MB today but not this heavy..ReplyDelete
..and surprise, surprise.. Winnipeg's SUNNY forecast Monday is now 70% chance of showers or thunderstorms.
LI's approaching -10 across the south west and at -10 in Winnipeg tomorrow late afternoon! Anything lower than that is off the scale! CAPEs also approaching 3000 and Showalters at almost -6. Certaintly lots of instability kicking aroundReplyDelete
Well, if Saskatchewan is any indication of what tomorrow may be like in southern MB.. we could be in for an active afternoon/evening! Best bet for storms will be mainly over Red River valley and east.. possibly severe. SPC has much of srn MB in slight risk area tomorrow..ReplyDelete
Rob, if i may ask what are the main risks for tommorow, for lets say the winnipeg area, could it be a damaging event?ReplyDelete
Main threat from storms tomorrow will be strong wind gusts (90-100 km/h) and large hail.. similar to SK this evening. Best support and dynamics look to be a little north of Winnipeg, but anyone in the RRV can see something given the instability and frontal lift.ReplyDelete