Thursday, September 14, 2017

Welcome rain finally on the way for southern MB..

It's been awhile, but it finally looks like southern MB will have its first decent rainfall in weeks beginning tomorrow and continuing into early Saturday.  Models are indicating a general 20-35 mm of rain for most areas in southern MB Friday into Saturday morning, with locally heavier amounts of 50 mm thanks to embedded thunderstorms firing up over ND later Friday into Friday evening (spreading into southern MB mainly closer to the US border)

As for Winnipeg.. models are all over the place in terms of amounts here, but generally it looks like 25-40 mm of rain is possible from Friday afternoon into Saturday morning, with the bulk of rain falling Friday night when it could be heavy at times. Some models show heavier amounts due to embedded convection moving in Friday evening (GDPS shows over 70 mm for us!) Here are the various model outputs of rainfall for Winnipeg through midday Saturday.. (12Z or 18Z run)

RDPS... 32 mm
GDPS... 72 mm
NAM.... 43 mm
GFS.... 23 mm
ECMWF.. 26 mm
SREF... 18 mm
GEPS... 41 mm 

Multi-model average is 36 mm. Taking out the highest and lowest values gives a mean of 33 mm. Whatever the case, it'll be the most significant rainfall we've had here in weeks! In Winnipeg, only 2 mm of rain has fallen so far this month, coming off its 13 driest August when only 14 mm fell the entire month. Since July 23rd, Winnipeg airport has received only 21 mm of rain, a mere 18% of the normal 119 mm that should have fallen over that time. We are certainly overdue for a good soaking!     

Sunday, September 03, 2017

Cool windy end to Labour Day weekend, but summer-like warmth to return by end of week

The last long weekend of the summer season will be ending on a cool and windy note as a strong northwest flow pushes in a  fall-like airmass over Manitoba on Monday, along with a few showers. Highs temperatures will only be in the upper teens, with gusty northwest winds up to 60 or 65 km/h at times. Although we can use the rain, rainfall amounts Monday will be light with only a few mm expected in passing gusty showers. Things will clear up Monday night with better weather Tuesday and Wednesday under a mix of sun and cloud and temperatures in the upper teens to 20C.

The second half of the week is looking wonderful as a southerly flow spreads warmer air back into Manitoba. That should bring sunny and dry weather for Thursday through Sunday, along with increasingly warm and windy conditions with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. In fact, it's possible much of the RRV will be hitting the 30C mark again next weekend, although it will be accompanied by gusty south winds. So if the onset of cooler weather is getting you down, don't worry.. summer is still not quite done yet!