Sunday, November 26, 2017

Mild week ahead.. November ending on a mild note after cold start

After a cool weekend, milder weather is set to return to southern Manitoba Monday as another clipper system brings in a shot of warmer air from the west. Temperatures are expected to climb above freezing again across much of southern MB Monday with afternoon temperatures near +3C and up to +7C over snowfree and downslope areas.  Mild weather last Friday eroded a lot of the snowpack over far southern and SW MB, where a lot of bare ground is now becoming exposed even just south of Winnipeg.  This will make it easier for mild temperatures to surface, eroding even more of the snowpack over the next week.   Tuesday will see cooler temperatures return, but will still be near or above normal (normal highs now are -4C)  Temperatures are expected to remain above normal the rest of the week with highs near or above the freezing mark through Friday.  So after a frigid start to November (7th coldest start on record over the first 10 days), the month will end up on a mild note with above normal temperatures likely persisting into the early part of December.

Sunday, November 19, 2017

Clipper system brings brief warmup Monday, then getting windy and colder again by evening

A fairly intense clipper system will track through the Interlake area Monday bringing a brief warmup to southern MB as gusty southwest winds push our temperature above the freezing mark (+1C) by afternoon. There could be a band of snow and/or freezing rain ahead of the warm front Monday morning, but accumulations look minimal over southern MB. The bulk of snow will be associated near and north of the clipper system across the northern Interlake and central MB where 10-15 cm is possible. As the system tracks east towards Ontario later in the day, winds will shift into the northwest and increase to 40G60-70 kmh by evening over southern MB, with temperatures falling below freezing along with occasional snowshowers and local blowing snow at times. Road conditions will become slick as the melting conditions of the afternoon quickly freeze up Monday evening. We could see a cm or 2 of snow in the wraparound behind the clipper system before things clear out by Tuesday morning. Colder conditions will return through mid week before a brief moderation again by late week with another clipper system.

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Milder week ahead.. but changes loom for late week

After a frigid start to November, the weather pattern is expected to moderate this upcoming week with temperatures more typical of mid November. The first 10 days of the month have averaged -8.8C in Winnipeg, some 7C below normal for the time period, and the 7th coldest start to November since records began in 1872. The past week featured the coldest Nov 9th on record when the temperature fell to -23.7C at Winnipeg airport, with a record low maximum of only -11.4C. This cold start is in sharp contrast to November 2016, which had the warmest start to November on record at +7.0C, an astonishing 16C warmer than this year!

The good news is that temperatures will be a lot more tolerable this week as the persistent Arctic airmass moves off allowing milder air to move in. Conditions look pleasant for the Bombers game Sunday with partly sunny skies and afternoon temperatures near -5C with light winds. Milder temperatures will move in for the new week with temperatures climbing above freezing by Tuesday (high of +2C)  Generally seasonal temperatures are expected through mid week (highs near freezing) before a storm system moves in Friday bringing windy and colder conditions by next weekend.  Until then, enjoy the milder weather this week!  

Thursday, November 02, 2017

Get ready folks.. winter arrives this weekend. Snowy Saturday followed by Arctic cold next week

Storm system will spread snow across srn MB Saturday.
10-15 cm is possible along with colder temps behind it
We've had a few tastes of it over the past week or so, but after this weekend, there'll be no doubt about it.. winter will have arrived in Winnipeg and southern MB. A storm system tracking through the Dakotas will spread snow across all of southern MB Friday night into Saturday with a general swath of  5-15 cm possible for many areas including Winnipeg. Winnipeg dodged a bullet Wednesday missing out on an earlier system, but Saturday's system looks more significant and will be harder to miss.  So get ready for a snowy Saturday and poor travelling conditions through the day into Saturday night. And sadly, say goodbye to that bare ground.. this system looks like the start of our winter snowcover that will likely last into next spring! If you haven't done so already, get those snow tires on and get your car winter ready.. or consider postponing travel Saturday if you are not prepared for winter driving yet.

In the wake of Saturday's system, northwest winds will usher in colder air for the new work week, with temperatures some 10C below normal for early November. With fresh snowcover, temperatures will only climb to around -5 to -8C next week, with lows of -15C to possibly -20C! (Average highs right now are +4C, lows of -5C)  Some moderation is possible later next week, but overall, it looks like below normal temperatures will persist well into mid November and likely beyond. This is in sharp contrast to last year when southern MB enjoyed its warmest November on record, with Winnipeg not seeing its first measurable snowfall of the season until Nov 22nd.. the latest start to the snow season ever.  No such luck this year! Winter arrives at least 3 weeks earlier this year.. so get ready!  

(source: Env Canada and CoCoRaHS)

Rossburn ........ 23 cm
Roblin ............ 20 cm
Russell............. 19 cm
Woodlands ..... 14 cm
Brandon .......... 13 cm
Neepawa ........ 11 cm
Winnipeg ........ 10 cm
Pinawa .............  9 cm
Steinbach .......... 7 cm
Virden .............. 7 cm
Portage .,..........  6 cm
Emerson ........... 5 cm