Friday, November 25, 2011

Snowy weather set to return tonight..

After a couple of spring-like days over the Red River valley that saw the snowpack virtually disappear with temperatures in the +8-13C range, wintery weather is set to return by this evening as a weather system crosses southern Manitoba. Snow is expected to develop across the Red River valley by early this evening as the system gets organized, with a risk of some freezing rain or ice pellets at the onset. Snow will continue tonight into Saturday morning with accumulations of around 5 cm by the time it tapers off. As the system moves into NW Ontario Saturday, gusty northwest winds of 30 to 50 km/h will develop over southern MB with temperatures near the freezing mark. Clearing skies are expected for Sunday with above normal temperatures into early next week.

UPDATE: 8 am Nov 26th: 6.4 cm of snow at my place since last evening. 6 cm snow on ground. Snowfall total since Nov 1st: 22 cm. Normal Nov snowfall: 21 cm.

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Record mild day over parts of southern MB.. more records likely Thursday..

It was a mild day over southern Manitoba today with plenty of sunshine and a southwest flow tapping a mild Pacific airmass spreading across the Prairies. Temperatures rose to the 7C mark in Winnipeg, even with a coating of snow on the ground, while temperatures soared into the double digits over the snowfree southern Red River valley. Gretna at 12.4C set a new record for November 23rd, beating the previous record high of 7.2C in 1962. Pinawa (6.5C), Gimli (7.6C) and Fisher Branch (8.6C) also set new record highs today. Further south Grand Forks soared to a record 14.4C. More records are likely Thursday over southern MB as the mild airmass remains over the area, with highs of 7-10C over the northern RRV, and 10-13C over the south. For Winnipeg, a high of +8C is forecast Thursday, which would be a record high for November 24th (currently 7.2C set in 1907)

Cooler but above normal weather is forecast for Friday, before a system brings some snow to southern MB Friday night into Saturday with a few cm possible.

UPDATE: (Thu Nov 24th) Winnipeg Airport hit 9.7C this afternoon.. easily beating the previous record high of 7.2C for the day. Even milder readings were found over the western Red River valley including Portage, Carman, Morden and Gretna at 12C. At least 7 record highs were set across southern MB this afternoon. MB hot spot was Cypress River at 12.5C. Note that Winnipeg's latest double digit temperature was an 11.7C reading on Dec 6 1939.

Sunday, November 20, 2011

Nice warmup on the way this week

If the cold weather this weekend was a little too early for your liking, take heart.. warmer weather is on the way across the Prairies this week. A surge of mild Pacific air will push into Alberta Monday and then spread into southern SK and southern MB Tuesday into Wednesday, pushing temperatures above the freezing mark once again. The mild weather is forecast to continue through the end of the week before a brief cooldown on the weekend.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Clipper to bring more snow by Thursday night.. colder weather for the weekend..

An Alberta clipper system is forecast to track across southern Manitoba Thursday night bringing a band of light to moderate snow mainly along and north of the TransCanada corridor. Snow from this system will spread into western Manitoba Thursday afternoon and push into the northern RRV Thursday evening. Snowfall amounts of 2-5 cm are likely by Friday morning with 5-10 cm possible over the Riding Mtns and southern Interlake. (see attached HPC probability map of snowfall>= 5 cm) The snow should pull off into NW Ontario Friday with northerly winds bringing in colder weather for the weekend. High temperatures will only reach the -8C range while overnight lows drop into the minus teens.. with -20C possible in some areas.

Monday, November 07, 2011

Weekend storm system brings first significant snowfall across southern Manitoba

The storm system that tracked across southern Manitoba over the weekend brought the season's first snowfall to much of southern Manitoba, including Winnipeg and the Red River valley last night. Light rain yesterday changed to snow in the evening and continued overnight bringing a coating of about 3-4 cm of wet snow to Winnipeg by Monday morning. The heaviest snowfall with this storm system however was concentrated towards the SK border where 20-30 cm of snow was recorded near the Swan River area beginning Saturday night. Here are some snowfall reports from the latest storm..

Mafeking .............. 28 cm (between Swan River and The Pas)
Cowan ................. 28 cm (east of Swan River)
Swan River ........... 20 cm
Roblin .................... 17 cm
Gilbert Plains ........ 17 cm (west of Dauphin)
Grand Rapids ........ 14 cm
Elkhorn ................... 14 cm
Rossburn ................ 14 cm (western Riding Mtn Park)
Oakbank ................. 6 cm
Winnipeg ................ 3 cm (Rob's Obs)
Steinbach ............... 2 cm

Friday, November 04, 2011

Weekend system to bring rain to RRV.. snow towards SK border..

The storm system that will be affecting southern Manitoba this weekend is expected to track across the western RRV Saturday night pushing through the Interlake towards the Ontario border Sunday. The bulk of precipitation with this system is expected to fall north and west of the low track, with most of the precipitation falling as snow towards the SK border. Snow is expected to develop over eastern SK late Saturday then spread northeastward towards the MB border Saturday night into Sunday morning. Snow will then continue over the northern Interlake pushing across the north basin of Lake Winnipeg during the day. At this point, it looks like a general 10-15 cm of snow is possible along the SK/MB border especially from Roblin up through the Swan River area towards The Pas. (see graphic from NOAA HPC showing probability of 10 cm or more snowfall) Similar amounts of snow are expected over neighbouring eastern SK. Further south, some light rain is expected to fall over the RRV Saturday night into Sunday, possibly mixing with a few wet snowflurries by Sunday afternoon as colder air wraps in behind the system. Overall though, the bulk of wintery weather with this system is expected to fall well north and west of Winnipeg. People planning on travelling through the Swan River/Roblin/Yorkton/Kamsack areas late Saturday into Sunday should be prepared for winterlike driving conditions.

UPDATE.. 8 am Nov 6. Here's a webcam image from Assessippi ski resort this morning along the MB/SK border near Roblin. At least 10 cm of snow was reported in the area overnight with another 5 cm or more expected today before things taper off. Road conditions in western MB and southern SK are listed as snowcovered and slippery this morning with travel not advised on some highways.

Some snowfall observations from southern MB and SK last night into today..

Mafeking, MB ......... 27 cm (between Swan River and The Pas) (5 pm)
Pelly SK ................... 24 cm (west of Swan River near Kamsack) (5 pm)
Grand Rapids MB ... 14 cm (6 pm)
Yorkton SK .............. 10 cm (8 am)
Roblin MB................. 10 cm (8 am)
Rossburn MB ........... 9 cm (8 am)
Regina SK.................. 6-10 cm (8 am)
Saltcoats SK ................ 8 cm (SE of Yorkton) (8 am)
Gilbert Plains MB .... 5 cm (west of Dauphin) (8 am)

Wednesday, November 02, 2011

Storm system still threatens rain/snow over southern MB this weekend..

Models continue to indicate the likelihood of a storm system emerging out of the central Rockies and moving into the northern Plains this weekend, bringing an area of rain and wet snow over southern MB Saturday into Sunday. As usual with these systems, determining where the rain/snow line will set up is difficult to pinpoint several days ahead.. but a growing consensus is emerging that the bulk of the snow will likely fall mainly west and north of the Red River valley (especially in areas with higher elevation), with mainly rain over the Red River valley and SE MB. Even here though, rain may change over to snow Sunday morning as colder air wraps in on the backside of the system, with some slushy accumulations possible before the area of precipitation moves out. Again, the storm system is still a few days out and things can change.. so stay tuned as we monitor the progress of this potential first snowmaker of the season for parts of southern MB.