Monday, November 07, 2011

Weekend storm system brings first significant snowfall across southern Manitoba

The storm system that tracked across southern Manitoba over the weekend brought the season's first snowfall to much of southern Manitoba, including Winnipeg and the Red River valley last night. Light rain yesterday changed to snow in the evening and continued overnight bringing a coating of about 3-4 cm of wet snow to Winnipeg by Monday morning. The heaviest snowfall with this storm system however was concentrated towards the SK border where 20-30 cm of snow was recorded near the Swan River area beginning Saturday night. Here are some snowfall reports from the latest storm..

Mafeking .............. 28 cm (between Swan River and The Pas)
Cowan ................. 28 cm (east of Swan River)
Swan River ........... 20 cm
Roblin .................... 17 cm
Gilbert Plains ........ 17 cm (west of Dauphin)
Grand Rapids ........ 14 cm
Elkhorn ................... 14 cm
Rossburn ................ 14 cm (western Riding Mtn Park)
Oakbank ................. 6 cm
Winnipeg ................ 3 cm (Rob's Obs)
Steinbach ............... 2 cm


  1. Satellite picture today is a good one. Now that the clouds are parting you can really see how much snow this system layed down.

    Next chance of snow for us here in Southern Manitoba?? Maybe a clipper in the NW flow will bring a chance later in the week.

  2. It looks like a few lake-effect snow showers are starting to form to the west of the lakes. Those areas could pick up a few more centimeters today, so it seems.

  3. Is that lake effect moving over the north perimeter now or just St Andrews Airport.

  4. A very cold night in store for Western Manitoba, with Brandon's forecast low of -14 C

  5. See what happens when you have a nice snowpack, look at those temperatures do a big nosedive.

  6. I was wondering something much the same as Daniel P.

    Given everything else is the same - same windspeed and direction, same length of day, clear conditions and anything else that might be relevant - how big a difference does having the ground covered with snow make in the temperature reading?

    My own guess is about 4 or 5 degrees. What do you think, Rob?

  7. Look at grand forks with a high of 11 C . Now look at Winnipeg with a high of 3 C.
    Could that meager snowcover really make that much a difference??? I mean we are in the same airmass as them today???

  8. I was just listening to CJOB and they were saying we could see temps of -25c next week. Not sure if that was Karen Black just trying to be sensational or if that is in fact a good chance of that happening. Any ideas?

  9. With snowcover and light winds, inversion never broke at places like Swan RIver which is stting at -7 C.

    In addition to no snow cover at Grand Forks, they are getting a SW flow of at least 30 kmh allowing for better mixing compared to our lite SSE flow

  10. Daryl. There is a chance of some accumulating snow early next week with a storm in the area. With a possible push of cold air after that.It's all speculation right now,but not out of the question to see overnight lows near -20 C if we can get a good snowcover.

  11. I don't know about -25C next week.. models do show a cold outbreak by later next week, but not that cold. As daniel noted, you'd have to have a good snowcover to see temperatures getting that low. Could happen, but at this point it's a little premature predicting -25C temps.

    Joe.. I don't have any figures on how much of a difference snow pack has on temperatures.. so I couldn't give you an exact number. Depending on snow depth and topography, I think it could easily be a 5C difference compared to snowfree areas.. maybe even 10c.

  12. Looks like a cold front will sweep through southern Manitoba this afternoon , bringing gusty winds and few snowflurries.

  13. Snowflurries have really picked up in intensity the past hour here in downtown Winnipeg. Could get another 1cm coating here by evening's end.

  14. Any thoughts on that potential for frezzing rain tomorrow night into Friday morning???

  15. Meanwhile, it's spring all over again in the East...

    Southern Quebec recorded temperatures above 20C.

  16. daniel..

    We have a weak clipper passing through southern MB tonight which will bring an area of snow mainly through the Interlake areas with 2-5 cm possible.. with some light snow likely over the RRV. On the back edge of the pcpn shield temperatures aloft will be warm enough to support rain or freezing rain depending on sfc temperatures.. mainly over SW MB tonight. However, the pcpn will be light in that area so any frzg rain that develops should be spotty. Note that frzg rain is occurring this morning over central AB and west central SK..

  17. Thanks for the heads up. NWS is calling for light snow as far south as Northern North Dakota, so it would seem we will see impacts from this clipper.

  18. I just hope that clipper doesnt drastically knock down our temperatures, they tend to usually.
    I also would enjoy a nice coating of ice on the roads tomorrow morning to make things interesting.

  19. You know what I would like to see???
    A HUGE snowstorm with strong winds for the Blue Bomber Game next weekend. Would that not "spice" up the action a little???? LOL.....

  20. Rob!!!

    I sent you something interesting on your facebook page, that I think you might like. Check it out.

  21. daniel.. Yeah, that's dual-pole radar, the latest upgrade to radar that will offer much improved precipitation detection and assessment. Dual pole radar has the benefit of scanning not only in the horizontal plane, but the vertical as well.. which helps to more accurately assess particle size and fall rates. It will be a major improvement is being able to determine precip types as well as improving precipitation accumulation estimates and hail size from radar.

    NWS is undergoing dual pole conversion of all their NEXRAD radars right now, with completion by the spring of 2013 (GFK radar is scheduled for conversion next June) Canada has a couple of dual pole radars currently, including King City north of Toronto.. but they're mainly in research mode right now. Plans are to upgrade Canada's radar system to dual pole within the next 5 to 10 years, depending on funding of course.

  22. Do you have any Idea on when Canadas National alert system will go up? Just the other day The USA had their alert system tested nationwide and I would find it beneficial for us to have an alert system so we can have instant information on any threat to our local area or country at anytime even at night. its good if we are at threat of a impending night time tornado all the local news stations would be on it, we need it. I heard that we could have it up and running by fall of 2011 and it is Fall of 2011 already, where the heck is the governments mind at? Its surprising all in all as they announced this back in 2008. Rob would you know of any upcoming implementations on the warning system locally, including tornado sirens?

  23. They are getting some intense storms this year way up north! Environment Canada has used the words "Violent Windstorm" for the one expected to hit Baffin Island tomorrow.

  24. The latest GFS shows a very nice storm somewhere in the area next weekend. If this storm were to occur, there appears to be a surge of cold air behind it.So an all snow event seems for certain. I was not joking about that storm next weekend for the bomber game. Please mother nature.....LOL

  25. Dan'l Do you have any info or progress on the Berens sea/Alaska hurric(aint). Any link suggestions?

  26. Some info on my name or at

  27. Looks Like we could be impacted by a nice snow system on Friday of Nov 18th between the hours of 6am to 6pm of that day. The ECMWF model data on the wunderground weather map is pointing towards 10+cm of snow in the red river valley. I believe this will change as the days go on. Ill keep u guys up to date.

    Could someone also reply to my previous comment as well that'd be awesome.

  28. Mike..

    I haven't heard anything more on the status of the national alerting system. Last I heard, it was scheduled to be implemented in 2012.. but again, I haven't heard anything recently if that's still on track. I agree.. it's an important initiative that we can certainly benefit from.

  29. Mike

    How do you find that information. I have looked at Wunderground and I am obviously not looking in the same place as you are because I cant find the ECMWF weather data. The only thing I can find is the long range forecast which is saying 50% chance of snow.

  30. Look like quite the cold front is set to crash into Southern Manitoba on Tuesday. Light snow, with highs below zero for a few days next week.

  31. Thanks for your insight rob, I am very muchlooking forward to the alert system we can all benefit from within the future years. It would be very much like the states EAS that they have.

    Its quite easy to navigate onto the ECMWF model but not before going onto CYWG Weather on Wunderground which you did and I guess from your point got u stuck in a rut. Heres what u do from where u were, scroll up to the current observations and right below that section there should be a mini radar screen with the tab radar highlighted. Thereafter hover your mouse over the screen and it should give you 2 options, I would pick wundermap. When you are directed to the page scroll down the sidebar and at that point there are several checkboxes the one you need for models is labeled "model data", the map changes to your pick. You can pick various models such as the GFS,NAM,ECMWF etc. Ill think you will be good from there. Let me know if you have further questions.

  32. Mike

    That is awesome. I have never seen that before. Boy now I have a lot to learn watching these new maps.


  33. Time to break out the Winter Parka by weeks end. It is gonna be below normal for a change.

  34. A few light snow chances this week, and Sunday still shows promise for a potential snow...maybe.

    Rob do you believe the forecasted highs are too warm with the push of cold air mid week????

  35. Don't hold your breath for that Weather Alert system. The test didn't go so well in the US.

  36. Dawson Yukon forecasted high on Wednesday is -35 C (their normal is -15) That is a full 20 degress below normal. That would be like Winnipeg getting a high of only -22this time of the year, which would be truly astonishing. BRRRRR!!!!

  37. Thanks Anon.....
    It's quite funny you mentioned that, Cause I did hear that most of the News stations in the states were stuck waiting for 3 min after they were notified of the alert test, as a result not a sound was heard in that time frame, "a successful failure". Other USA stations were lucky and recieved the whole thing, while direct TV costumers were left listening to Lady Ga Ga LOL instead of the actual notification, which rob might have liked if i'm not mistaken. So I assume we probably would have had the same issue if not worse,if we actually had the system in place in canada.

    On the other note I noticed you guys are mentioning we could see a blast of cold arctic air next week. I assume it won't last long since its early november, and if it does the temperatures will likely rebound to more normal weather. I am still going to take out my winter jacket and boots just in case.

    Goodbye Fall hello Winter!

  38. Close to 20C in Southern Quebec...
    A little bit cooler in Southern Ontario but they are getting some nice thunderstorms.

  39. North Dakota is really getting a good snow with this system today. Devils Lake webcam shows very low visibility in snow. Thundersnow even reported this morning.

  40. Very narrow but Intense snowband moving down toward Grand Forks. Visibilitys in that snowband have dropped to near zero according to observations. To think if that band would have been a little futher north, we could have picked up a quick 5 cm.

  41. Yeah, that was quite the intense little system.. very tight circulation on satellite and radar. Don't normally see that with winter type systems.

    Looks like the next threat of a general snowfall over southern MB is with that clipper moving through Thursday night into Friday. Could see a coating to 3 or 4 cm. That will be followed by a colder outbreak for the weekend.

  42. With a push of colder air tomorrow and a 30km NW wind, the lake effect machine should kick in tomorrow!!!

  43. Hi everyone

    Click on my name to get to a weather story about Nov 15th wind and snow event.

    Very compact 500 mb vort moved along Highway 2. Quite strong in Minot to Devils Lake area where some thundersnow occurred...6 inches in Minot 3-5 inches in Devils Lake area....with 1-3 inches Grand Forks-Grafton-Thief River Falls.

    Farther south...winds to 50-60 mph Cooperstown ND to Fargo and little snow.

  44. Hi Dan GF.
    Good to see that you finally got some snow. We are getting a quick dusting here today followed by 5 cm tomorrow night.

  45. Which model for tomorrows event is considered the most accurate. I have been watching them and trying to understand what I am seeing. It seems GFS is forecasting the most amount of moisture with the NAM and ECWMF forecasting some but very limited amounts for a very short time. Unless I'm looking at these things all wrong.

  46. Which model for tomorrows event is considered the most accurate. I have been watching them and trying to understand what I am seeing. It seems GFS is forecasting the most amount of moisture with the NAM and ECWMF forecasting some but very limited amounts for a very short time. Unless I'm looking at these things all wrong.

  47. Very cold night in Brandon tonight with a forecast low of -21C

  48. Ouch...
    That's why I don't mind the cloudiness we tend to see this time of year from the lakes. Not as cold most of the time.

  49. Daryl..

    You never know which model will perform the best.. if we did, we'd always use that one! :)

    For this next event, the ECMWF and NAM are taking the bulk of the snow over Riding Mtns and southern Interlake.. with Winnipeg and the TransCanada corridor being on the southern edge of the accumulating snow. The Canadian GEM on the other hand is a little further south on the snow band and has a little more for Winnipeg. The ECMWF is often a good performer, especially with larger scale systems from the south.. but I notice that the Canadian GEM is often quite good with clippers. We'll just have to see which model is handling this system better..

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