Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Peak of heat wave expected today.. thunderstorms likely Wednesday with cooler and more comfortable conditions by Thursday..
The heat wave which has been affecting southern Manitoba since Saturday is expected to peak today with afternoon temperatures of 35-38C forecast, along with humidex values in the mid 40s. In Winnipeg, highs of 36C are forecast which would be a record for the day (currently 34.4C in 1967), and likely the city's hottest day since Aug 19 2003 when we hit 35.9C. Today should be the hottest day of the heat wave before a cold front pushes through Wednesday bringing some welcome showers and thunderstorms that will likely be accompanied by locally heavy rainfall. Cooler and more comfortable conditions will follow in the wake of the front by Thursday with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity.
Posted by rob at 8:11 AM
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The AM TAF for CYWG shows absolutely no wx thru to 10PM Tuesday night local time. Just strong south winds. So I don't think there's a cold front in our future today. Also the GFA shows all the wx and fronts well north. We'll have to wait until Thursday for a break in this hellish heat. I'd sure like to know how humans and beasts put up with these conditions for months on end in places like India. It would drive me stark raving mad!ReplyDelete
TAF CYWG 191138Z 1912/2012 14005KT P6SM FEW030 SCT100
BECMG 1912/1914 18015G25KT
FM192000 18015G25KT P6SM SCT030
BECMG 2001/2003 18010KT
Looks like the storms which hit the north are now bowing on radar and look like they are moving south towards us. Check the radar and see for yourself.ReplyDelete
9AM and the humidex is already at 38C in Cypress River.ReplyDelete
Dewpoint of 25C in Melita right now.
That thunderstorm complex over the northern Interlake is diving southeastward.. should miss Winnipeg, but could give folks who headed to Grand Beach today a little surprise in an hour or two!ReplyDelete
Looks like Poratge La Prairie has a good head start to the heat!!!ReplyDelete
30 C already at 10:00!
Could they be the one to hit 38 today!! Fair chance!
I originally saw it moving towards us at 9 am, checked again and it is moving SE and somewhat weakening. Exactly what you said, thanks for the heads up rob.ReplyDelete
That outflow cloud boundary is showing up nicely on the Gimli webcam..ReplyDelete
What site do you guys use when looking at the radar? Environment Canada? Weather network? Is there a better one?ReplyDelete
It is a SAUNA out there....and it's only 11:00 in the morning!ReplyDelete
Lucky I have the day off today and can chill in the a/c room!
Keep an eye out for some convection developing tonight. Models are showing some sort of a LLJ nosing into North Dakota and possibly up into southern Manitoba.ReplyDelete
I see Environment Canada has a mention of thunderstorms tonight already with risk of a severe thunderstorm.
Dewpoints have really climbed in the past hour or two in Winnipeg and RRV.. up to 23C now with lots of 24-25C dewpoints to our southwest. Steamy. Luckily we only have one or two days like this.. imagine a week of these conditions like those folks south of us. You can understand why prolonged heat like this can be such a serious health risk to some people..ReplyDelete
Estevan, Saskatchewan currently has a humidex of 41C at 10AM.ReplyDelete
The dewpoint at Rob's place is 24.5ReplyDelete
3 more degrees and we have a new record! No clouds in the sky...we should be able to crack it!!
I have used many kinds of radar before, but the best is an interactive radar as you can move the map to whatever location you want to, can zoom in, loop it, see futurecasts, storm cells and lightning. I would use either WFTV Orlando 9 Interactive radar, or Storm Track 4 Interactive radar. They are both the same. Great storm Tracking tool, just look it up on google.
If you Don't know a LLJ is a low level jet and it helps fire off nocturnal thunderstorms. Will See what we get tonight.
Yep no Prob. I'd be happy to answer more of your questions keep them coming!ReplyDelete
We are expected to see the same temperature as Dallas, Texas Today!. High 37C Humidex 49 wow thats hot! So I assume we may see some big storms fire off tonight across the south. dewpoint could climb to 28C later on making it very humid and tropical. I will post the CWWG PASPC message at 2pm for all of you to read.ReplyDelete
88F(31C) dewpoint in Madison, Minnesota last evening.ReplyDelete
Broke the all-time state record which was 86F.
One heck of a heat wave. =)
By the way, the software for my weather station calculates the American "heat index" rather than the "humidex" which we use in Canada. Formulas are different and will yield different results for the same temperature and dew point.ReplyDelete
An easy way to calculate the humidex is to add the temperature and dewpoint in degrees C and subtract 13. Latest humidex at my site is 34+25-13 = 46. (Heat index registers 42) Either way, as Daniel said.. it's a sauna out there!
34 temp and 47 humidex at Winnipeg airport at 2:00!!!
Almost there......another degree!!!
hey guys, I have read the PASPC bulletin and have found what the meteorologists are saying for southern manitoba tonight and tomorrow. "WKNG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FM EXTREME SERN SK INTO THE NRN INTERLAKE MAY ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR ISOLD TSTM OVER WRN MB THIS AFTN. AREA CURRENTLY HAS DISSIPATING FOG AND STRATUS AND PROG TEPHIS INDICATE THE AREA SHUD REMAIN CAPPED. DISPITE THIS LOW LVL FORCING FM THE FNT, ESCARPMENT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM DISSIPATING NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE ENUF FORCING TO OVER COME THE CAP. PLENTY OF MSTR IN THE AREA WITH SBCAPE OF 4000-6000 J/KG AVAILABLE. WILL MONITOR FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED. SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT AND INTO MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY A SURFACE LOW TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND TRACK IT INTO THE FLIN FLON AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN, WHICH WILL TAP INTO THE EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY OVER THE REGION. TONIGHT MAY BE A REPEAT SCENARIO OF LAST NIGHT, JUST SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST A BIT. EXPECT MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY."ReplyDelete
Taken from http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/CWWG/1107191900.focn45.html
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for SW corner of the province. Rob, Could the watch be extended here in the red river valley overnight?ReplyDelete
47 is our all-time highest humidex set in 2007, I can't believe we might actually break that record so soon!ReplyDelete
Winnipeg and Dauphin with a humidex of 47C at 2 PM...ReplyDelete
Mike, I doubt severe thunderstorm watches will be put out for the rest of southern MB because if anything does form in W MB it wouldn't be anything too severe as it moves further east. The weather models don't show anything significant tonight, the main even will be tomorrow with the cold front passing through in the afternoon where all of southern MB has a good chance of getting severe thunderstorms with the squall line.ReplyDelete
Ok the dewpoint has dropped a few degrees which should allow us to get a few degrees on the air temp...( so we can get that record)ReplyDelete
Look like the Twin Cities just broke their all time highest dewpoint. I have to double check that but they are sitting at 28 C!ReplyDelete
It's 38.0 C in Bissett MB, as of 3 pm CDT, and still climbing (at a WMO standard weather station). That area has been the hot spot for the last several days, which makes sense being on granite in the Canadian shield.ReplyDelete
If Winnipeg did only get down toReplyDelete
26C tonight..would that be a record warm low????
39.7 C now at Bissett MB. Still climbing.ReplyDelete
I can't find this Bissett station.. where are you getting the data from?ReplyDelete
Re: low temperature of 26C tonight. That would be a record warm low for July 20th, but not an all time warm low. That mark belongs to July 12 1936 when a low of 28.3C was recorded, a day after Winnipeg hit its all time high of 42.2C. (what a tough night that must have been!)ReplyDelete
Keep in mind though that tomorrow's low of 26C will likely fall below that mark tomorrow evening after our cold frontal passage.. and we could be down to 20C or so by midnight, in which case the low of 26C would be wiped out for the day. Since 1872, there's only been one day (July 12th 1936) in which the temperature failed to drop below 25C between midnight and midnight. Just goes to show how difficult it is to stay above 25C for 24 consecutive hours around here..
Rob, Dale M. should have given you the link a few years ago (from MB Conservation). I can't make it public at the moment.ReplyDelete
The 1pm observed weather is here:
Oh, it's a MB forestry station.. thanks for the link!ReplyDelete
Did Winnipeg break a record today???ReplyDelete
Did the airport get hotter than 34 in between the observations???
Intense supercells in west-central Manitoba right now.ReplyDelete
Max today at YWG airport was 34.4C.. ties record for the day from 1967. We shot up pretty fast then levelled off in the afternoon once the winds picked up and the dewpoints maxed out. Provincial hot spot among EC stations was Dauphin at 35.3C.ReplyDelete
Winnipeg also tied their all time humidex record today.. a 47C reading at 2 pm, tying the mark from July 2007. Not sure if the humidex was higher in between hours.
Yeah, those are some pretty nasty looking cells over SW Manitoba. Starting to look like some hook echoes on those cells SW of Roblin..ReplyDelete
Brandon currently has an incredible dewpoint of 27.6C.ReplyDelete
Humidex of 47 at 7PM.
Can you believe the humidex readings this late evening???
9:00 at night and we are still talking about humidex readings in the low forties!!!
TAF CYWG 192338Z 2000/2024 19015G25KT P6SM FEW030 FM200600 19015G25KT P6SM SCT030 PROB30 2006/2014 VRB20G30KT 2SM TSRAGR BKN030CB FM201400 27008KT P6SM FEW030 TEMPO 2014/2018 BKN030 BECMG 2016/2018 27015G25KT FM201800 27020G30KT P6SM FEW060 RMK NXT FCST BY 200600Z=ReplyDelete
So tonight 30% prop of Thunder Shower, Rain, Hail between 1AM to 9AM. After that west winds. Pretty slim odds of a wet evening.
Look at all the severe storms this morning!!!ReplyDelete
That cold front looks to be entering Winnipeg this early afternoon!!
Emerson might be line for quite the severe storm!!!ReplyDelete
Winds as high as 130 km/h are expected in North Dakota with that storm!
The lighting data off the U of M weather Central website has went crazy in the past few mintues with 352 strikes....Yikes!ReplyDelete
Since I don't work outside this heat has been interesting rather than an ordeal. I walked a few places yesterday and I didn't find it that bad.ReplyDelete
It didn't compare to Shanghai in June, 2009. We got off the bullet train and the display at the station read 39.9 C. It was monsoon season and the humidity was so high that you could see blue atmospheric haze, like you often can in southern Ontario. You couldn't walk anywhere without becoming totally drenched with sweat. Yesterday we had plenty of air movement, so that made it much more livable.
We get that haze here every 10 years or so. I wonder what the readings have to be to see the blue haze?
A friend from Brandon reports a few minutes ago.ReplyDelete
"so whats everyone seeing after that big rain storm this morning? Reports of flooding at the Town Centre and the basement cafeteria at BRHC and a partially collapsed roof at the Shoppers Mall"
Refreshing westerly winds with drier air pushing into SW MB as we speak.. dewpoint down to 14C in Estevan with brisk westerly winds. Hard to believe we're going to transition into this drier airmass with barely a drop of rain in Winnipeg and the RRV. We'll see if that front can kick up something before it goes through us this afternoon..ReplyDelete
Frontal timing is always key. Going to be a very close call for the RRV.ReplyDelete
box134.. haze is more of a result of smog than humidity. That's why we rarely see haze here in the Prairies.. even when our dewpoints are the same or higher than Southern Ontario. Sometimes it looks hazy here, but often it's due to smoke aloft from forest fires. In Ontario, these hazy hot and humid airmasses can limit visibility to 3 miles or less.ReplyDelete
Very close indeed. Some farmers around here could use the rain too, according to ctv today. Locally, there hasn't been any heavy rainfall events in the past month. (namely here in parts of WPG) I don't like using water to water mylawn, but this year might be an exception with bone dry conditions.ReplyDelete
Where is the Cold front right now? It will help determine the area of convective initiationReplyDelete
I would imagine the cold front is still west of Winnipeg as were still seeing hot humid conditions as well as a southerly windReplyDelete
Mike you can tell the cold front by looking at the direction of the wind. If the wind is blowing from the N/W the cold front has passed. If it's lowing from the S/E it hasn't passed yet. Right now it seems to be between Portage and Carberry.ReplyDelete
A lone storm is trying to form southwest of Portage...front is getting closer!!!ReplyDelete
Please read the article :
"HOTTEST PLACE ON EARTH"
Is is found on NWS GRAND FORKS home page!
You'll find in a very good read!
Convection firing west of portage! This is our only chance!ReplyDelete
That article was very interesting.. a very informative look at how local vegetation and ground moisture can affect the local microclimate of an area, resulting in somewhat skewed temperature and humidity readings at times. (I think that was the case with Carman's 30C dewpoint in 2007) Thanks for pointing it out..
And the mini-drought continues.ReplyDelete
It's like Winnipeg is in some sort of rain shadow! My brown, dormant lawn cannot take this anymore!ReplyDelete
Same here, im fed up with watering my trees and seeing every storm pass to our sides or have a cap bust. Brutal 2011 for storms here in the Peg.ReplyDelete
Wow that was disappointing. So what causes a cold front to move through but no storms to develop despite all the heat and moisture? CAP? Not enough shear? This has happened before. Why do some areas (particularly the same areas lately) get storms constantly tracking over them while some areas not far away get nothing at all?ReplyDelete
CAP was the case today. Towering cumulus was going up all day without any luck. I guess the reason why areas constantly get hit by storms is just lucky from what I can tell.ReplyDelete
Sorry, guys Carman's record is going down tommorow.ReplyDelete
Dewpoint of 25C in Windsor right now with the temperature close to 40C tommorrow.
Humidex of 40C at 6AM in Harrow...ReplyDelete
Serious record watch...ReplyDelete
Humidex of 43C at 9AM in downtown Toronto.
Carman better watch out.
I think it's unlikely that the humidex would get over 53 down there today.ReplyDelete
Borden, Ontario: Humidex of 44C
Toronto Pearson: Humidex of 44C
Downtown Toronto: Humidex of 46C
Borden, Ontario: 45C Humidex
Hamilton, Ontario: 46C Humidex
Toronto Downtown: 48C Humidex
Windsor, Ontario: 45C Humidex
Gonna be really close...ReplyDelete
Humidexes at 1PM:
St-Anicet, Quebec: 45C
Borden, Ontario: 45C
Brockville, Ontario: 45C
Delhi, Ontario: 46C
Guelph, Ontario: 45C
Hamilton, Ontario: 47C
Harrow, Ontario: 47C
Lagoon City, Ontario: 45C---Dewpoint of 28C there.
St. Catharines, Ontario: 47C
Markham, Ontario: 47C
Toronto Downtown: 51C
Toronto Pearson: 48C
Trenton, Ontario: 45C
Vineland, Ontario: 46C
Waterloo, Ontario: 45C
St-Anicet, Quebec: 47C
Hamilton, Ontario: 48C
Harrow, Ontario: 49C
Oshawa, Ontario: 47C
Markham, Ontario: 47C
Toronto Downtown: 51C
Toronto Pearson: 48C
It looks like the Carman record will stay, but it was close.
Well the drought some were hoping for has materialized..ReplyDelete
almost dust bowl conditions out there today. Brown lawns, trees turning yellow..
Dust Bowl is right.. I was at McMann and Yates lumber yard this afternoon, and the wind was blowing dust like we were in the Sahara. Bone dry out there! (Personally I like it, but I realize we need the rain..)ReplyDelete
Wife also flew in from Montreal late this afternoon.. she said the landing was the most turbulent she's ever experienced. Pilot had to abort the first attempt and he almost lost it on the second. Very turbulent out there..
Is the rain forecasted on Saturday supposed to be a full day of rain or just occasonal showers? Are they expecting a lot or a little?ReplyDelete
Lots of small tree branches down all over the yards today!!!ReplyDelete
Max 78 km/h wind gust west of Winnipeg!!
Models are showing an area of showers and thunderstorms developing over North Dakota and SW MB Friday night spreading into the RRV during Saturday. The rain looks fairly steady as the convection merges into one large area of precipitation. RGEM, which has a wet bias with convection, is showing amounts with 50-75 mm over parts of southern MB.. while NAM is more conservative at 30-40 mm. Either way, looks like we could be seeing our first significant rainfall around here in a month.. we can use it.
Sure, lots of rain when I have a day with outdoor plans. Figures. As much as we need the rain, I hope the models are wrong.ReplyDelete
Quite the spread on the ensembles as to how much rain Winnipeg will see Saturday.. ranging anywhere from 5-40 mm. Ensemble mean is about 20 mm. A good indication that the precipitation will be heavily influenced by convection which models have a tough time with..ReplyDelete