Saturday, July 23, 2011
Rain bypasses Winnipeg to the south.. dry spell continues..
The rain that was supposed to have spread over the Red River valley this morning has tracked further south.. bypassing much of southern MB and denying us some much need rain. Strong thunderstorms with high winds and heavy rain pushed across North Dakota last night, but very little precipitation made its way across the border with minimal amounts of 2-5 mm recorded along the US border including the southern RRV. There is still a chance of some showers and isolated thunderstorms later today as a trough of low pressure pushes across southern Manitoba later this afternoon, but the band of showers will be narrow and short lived with minor amounts. The lack of rain today will be a disappointment to those who were looking forward to some replenishing of the rapidly depleting soil moisture levels in the region. Only 7 mm of rain has fallen in Winnipeg so far this July, a month which normally sees about 70 mm.
Posted by rob at 10:33 AM
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The west side, Riding Mountain to Swan River, has been getting light showers all morning. However the 5 am and even the 11 am public forecast only says 'a few showers starting in the afternoon'. I wonder if the forecasters even look at the radar (no, it's not just virga).ReplyDelete
Remember all those times everybody complained about the rain? Remember the summer of 2011 and stop complaining :)ReplyDelete
Band of showers over western RRV pushing eastward this afternoon.. should be into Winnipeg between 4-4:30 pm. Not expecting much.. maybe 1 or 2 mm unless we can get some thunderstorms popping up with some locally heavier rain. Thunderstorm risk looks minimal at the moment in that leading band with no strikes being reported right now.. a few strikes south of the border in ND as well as over far SW MB.ReplyDelete
I recently have seen some lightning appear west of winnipeg on the gorilla page, at least 8 strikes just outside the cities perimeter highway.
Today's miss shouldn't come as a big surprise when one examines the synoptic pattern. At 500 hPa a large omega block sits yet again over Western Hudson Bay with surface high pressure feeding dry air. Large upper low over Alberta and best baroclinic zone and LLJ was south of the border. As always, it pays to take what deterministic model runs are saying with a grain of salt. Hopefully we'll at least something as the trough swings thru..ReplyDelete
It seems every time I post that we could get a storm, it never happens. Were not in kansas anymore I guess.ReplyDelete
That's exactly what I was thinking behind-the-scenes on my blog post yesterday. I was pretty skeptical of the MCS making it as far north as Winnipeg for that exact reason: no significant feeds of moisture up this way with a weak drying pattern aloft.
Beware the SE/E LLJ in deterministic models! :)
My grass really does need some water, though, so something would be nice. Anyone have thoughts about tomorrow evening or Tuesday?
Hi, I think we could get a thunderstorm here on tuesday or wednesday as a frontal system nudges its way up to the southern prairies, the spc already has a slight severe risk mentioned for northeastern montana on monday.Some could hit the south as moisture advects north ahead the system, meaning we could finally get some storms depending on when the front slides through. Not as much of a chance here tomorrow as the storms could be widely isolated across the south 30% chance only. Holding my luck towards tuesday or wednesday.
What is needed for Thunderstorm complexes to form? I'd love to see one bearing its way right towards winnipeg after sunset, that'd be the perfect storm/lightning show. PS. did we have one occur a few years ago?ReplyDelete
Today's activity still not over.. second batch of showers over SW MB pushing east along with some embedded thunderstorms. Should push into Winnipeg by 7 pm. Could see a little more rain out of this next batch with some locally heavy downpours giving 5-10 mm or so ..not enough to ease our rainfall deficit, but better than nothing.ReplyDelete
Yeah, Tuesday looking potentially interesting.. possible setup for severe storms over SE SK pushing into SW MB late Tuesday.
Nocturnal storms can be a real dazzling display of Mother Nature's power. Nothing like a powerful thunderstorm in the middle of the night to show who's really in charge on this planet!
You may be referring to some severe thunderstorms Winnipeg had the night of June 23-24th 2007 (the same day of the Pipestone tornado, and one day after Elie) Winnipeg had wind gusts over 100 kmh in storms that night along with some large hail in the north end in the overnight hours. We also had a wild night back on July 16-17, 2005 with two waves of storms.. one dumped over 100 mm of rain over the south end, then another wave brought wind gusts over 100 km/h that damaged many trees in the north end.
Thunderstorms are luck of the draw. Although they happen every year, it's actually not that common to get a real severe storm right over your location. When I moved to Winnipeg, I thought I'd be seeing a lot more storms than in southern Ontario. The potential is certainly higher here, but I've been in Winnipeg for 13 years now, and I can count on one hand the number of memorable thunderstorms I've experienced here.
Basic ingredients for thunderstorms.. heat, moisture, lift and wind shear. Generally, the more you have of any of these, the greater the chance for strong thunderstorms. Now, when everything comes together, you can get severe storms. But it's not that often that everything falls into place.. sometimes you have some of the ingredients in place, but lack the others. Other times, all the ingredients come together, but not over your location. Bottom line.. patience. Don't expect severe storms as a given.. but rather as a rare event. Because really that's what they are..
Lightning strikes dying to our west.. band is weakening. Maybe 2-5 mm on the way for us now..ReplyDelete
In terms of good storms, such as a MCS or something they just don't seem like they happen anymore around here. Our thunderstorm weather is so hit and miss. Looking forward to when we get SOMETHING soonReplyDelete
Chicago got a really good soaker today with 6.8 inches of rain! A new record for them!!ReplyDelete
Wow.. and it fell in only 3 hours last night, including 5.5" (140 mm) within 2 hours! Some photos of cars stranded in floodwaters on a lakefront highway.. which looks like the same stretch that cars were stranded on during that record blizzard there a few months ago!ReplyDelete
As for me, I picked up just over 2 mm today.. woo hoo!
That has surprise me, too, Rob. I thought moving here would be S. On.++, but over the past 3 years, it's been quite a disappointment inside the perimeter highway.ReplyDelete
500 meters south of the U.S. border, though...
It's been Alberta's year...thunderstorms almost every day...with many being severe at some point. The cloud seeders have been going crazy!ReplyDelete
4 tornadoes on July 7th, tornado in Calgary on July 13th...been tor'ific so far!
I've been in Winnipeg since the 17th...and nothing so far. I plan on chasing on Tuesday in SW MB into ND if the models are right.
Officially 2 mm at Winnipeg airport yesterday.. up to 9 mm for the month. Still 1.5 mm from driest July ever (10.5 mm in 2006), but we'll likely lose the title if models are correct with precip over us late Tuesday into Tuesday night..ReplyDelete
When all is said and done, this will be one of the most extreme summers when it comes to temperatures in the deep south!!ReplyDelete
It is already in the top 3 in many areas in Oklahoma and Kansas!!
I'm sure we will get another heat wave before this summer is done!!
Yeah, that southern heat has been relentless. In particular Wichita Falls, TX has been baked to a crisp. 33 days in a row of 100F or higher.. with a good shot at breaking their all time record of 42 days in a row. Only 2 days since June 1st below 100F (and those were 97F and 98F) One day of measurable rain since June 1st, a measly .02" on June 14th. The Red River which separates Texas and OK has totally dried up in the area with only a few puddles left beneath some bridges. I love hot weather.. but that's too much.ReplyDelete
Haha that 500 meters south of the border comment is all too true and annoying :)ReplyDelete
But I'm surprised that you would think you would see more storms here than in Southern Ontario. They've always had more storms then we've had. Southern Ontario seems to be in the path of those frequent US midwest storms that constantly track through which makes sense being farther south than we are, more humid, more access to gulf moisture, etc. Isn't Windsor Ontario or some place in S.Ont the thunderstorm capital of Canada too?
What is the average number of thunderstorm days for Winnipeg in a year?ReplyDelete
I'm guessing maybe 23 at most, it really isn't a lot of days considering all our misses this year. Rob help me on this one.ReplyDelete
Also can anyone notify me on the severe weather threat risk for tomorrow across southern manitoba, has anything changed since?ReplyDelete
what maps or models can I look at for information on the threat for tomorrow?ReplyDelete
Looking at the GFS and NAM models on a site such as twisterdata.com will give you plenty of information to assess severe weather threats for tomorrow afternoon. There are also plenty of links on the U of M Weather Central page to pertinent information.
The SPC Day 1/2/3 Outlooks are often useful as well, since they cover the Northern Plains.
The FOCN45 discussion also can have the EC meteorologist's thoughts on tomorrow's weather.
That being said, I think the best threat for severe weather will be in extreme southern SK overnight tonight, and then through the Regina/Estevan/Carlyle areas tomorrow, with the threat area maybe poking into Melitia; it will all depend on how much debris cloud clears from the nocturnal convection tonight.
Mike, you can also follow me on Twitter @WeatherInThePeg; I often tweet about upcoming weather for Winnipeg and area (mainly the Red River Valley).ReplyDelete
Thanks bro, I will for sure use twisterdata, and I'll follow you on twitter. keep up the the great work!ReplyDelete
EC Changed the forecast tomorrow to something we'd all like for once. Take a guess! Drum role mistro, ta da and it is risk of thunderstorms 70% chance. Sorry if I'm crazy, but who knows it could end up being another miss for us. We'll have to find out.ReplyDelete
Pretty good guess Mike. On average.. Winnipeg gets about 25-30 days a year where thunder is recorded at the airport. That doesn't mean 30 days with thunderstorms hitting us.. just 25-30 days when thunderstorms are close enough to hear thunder. Number of days with actual thunderstorms that hit the city would be less than that.. perhaps 15 or so. That number though can vary widely year to year.. some years may see far fewer.. others more. But overall, you can expect about 15 thunderstorms a year actually hitting the city, with a peak in June and July.ReplyDelete
I agree, that peak of storms for june and in july never came this year i guess, maybe we will see it peak in August who knows. I'm hoping for some rain soon, the soil needs it, it's like going back and forth with the soil moisture from wet to dry, wet to dry. Pretty soon we are going to be in a big drought, nothing is perfect around here, hey rob. We'll have to stick to the old farming methods of watering the grass ourselves.ReplyDelete
Further to B7's comments, any threat of thunderstorms over Winnipeg/RRV will be late Tuesday/Tuesday night when the complex of thunderstorms over SW Manitoba pushes east. There will be a couple of concerns though that may diminish the probability of storms for us. First of all, there will likely be some elevated storms overnight into Tuesday morning over the Western Dakotas into SE SK. These storms will move east and weaken Tuesday but may give parts of the RRV showers by afternoon along with a lot of cloud that will delay or diminish daytime heating for us. Then the severe threat develops with storms over North Dakota into SE SK late Tuesday with storms moving into southwest MB Tuesday evening.. but again, there's a chance that the heaviest activity will graze or remain south of the border where there's better dynamics and instability, with another batch of showers/thunderstorms through the Interlake. Winnipeg may yet again be between the two main pcpn areas.. but we'll just have to wait and see.ReplyDelete
Chicago got a really good soaker today with 6.8 inches of rain! A new record for them!!ReplyDelete