Monday, November 02, 2009

Nice warmup by week's end

Models are indicating a nice warmup over southern MB by the end of the week, as a low pressure system moves across the northern Prairies spreading a mild Pacific airmass across much of the south. In southern MB,  sunny skies and temperatures of 10 to 13C are likely by Friday into Saturday, well above the normal highs of +3C for early November.  Temperatures will cool slightly for next week however long range guidance is suggesting that temperatures will remain near to above normal into mid November.   


  1. That late week warm up entices one to stretch an extra long weekend out of Nov 11th. That is especially for those who are taking off to Grand Forks.and Fargo. In addition to Black Friday, this is one of those annual shopping pilgrimages that many Winnipeggers go south with one eye on the forecast.

    Except for Justin I think most of us prefer nothing as exciting as last summers twister on this trip. Travelling from Albertville to Mall of America is exciting enough w/o throwing in a Mpls twister

    Likewise a blizzard is not the kind of boredom relief one looks for while driving from here to West Fargo or Columbia Mall

    Also thanks GF Dan . Sooner rather than later I hope for that FGF update to Google displayed pcpn.

  2. Warm up!

    I was looking forward to a foot of snow and -20 C windchill!

    Oh well!
    Looks like I will have to wait a while longer!

    I'm always amazed and how wild Southern Manitoba weather can be!
    I mean look at the record high and then take a look at the record low!

    That's almost a 40 C difference!

  3. Speaking of records.. Winnipeg set a record high a year ago today (Nov 3rd)..18.8C! We started November with 4 days in the teens before the golf season ended on the 6-7th with snow that stuck around til April. Looks like we'll get a later start to the snowcover this year.

  4. Rob!

    I was looking at some of the temperatures up north and they are BONE chilling cold!

    So it's not a matter of if there will be cold weather it a matter of when the arctic flood gates will be opened!!!

  5. Golf ?? What is that...vaguely recall some of that September Sport

  6. With luck I'll get some golf in on Monday in GFKs Hopefully it will be a few degrees K warmer than the forecast..

    And Dan'l P I can use a little less nasty wishcasting especially for Cold n Snow (at least until Next Thursday)

  7. Last year's situation was a bit strange... areas just SE of Winnipeg saw all precip as rain and remained snow free for a good part of November. I was surprised we could not even get just one good snow melt day (5 C and windy). Yeah, so far this is looking nicer...

    Cold air building in high lattitdues is not necessarily a good indicator of what is to come. We need the upper flow to turn sharply NNW for a sustained period to dump all that cold dense air over us. In fact, if the cold were allowed to drain south in such an outbreak, the return flow would likely warm those same northely lattitudes. Given the forcing from the weak/moderate El Nino this year, we will have to see if it is strong enough to maintian a nice split flow and keep that arctic stuff bottled up where it belongs.

    The lack of snow cover also will allow for a faster moderation of any cold air intrusions and make it easier for warm air aloft to surface.

  8. That is a bright sunny morning out there. Several more this week and weekend make it exceptional for November on average the least sun hours month of the year.

    Is this is the El Nino effect so soon?

  9. Dan P
    That question are we crazy to live here doesn't seem so facetious.

    I looked at the Nov Record High Temp and Humidex and Record Low and Wind Chill on RobsOBS Links-- STATS ..CLIMATE DATA...NORMALS.
    These were equally shocking differences ..
    58C and 72C.

    The all year record differences were
    82C actual and
    103C (feels like) less than 5 months apart in 1996.

    That is greater than the temperature difference between ice water and water in a boiling kettle!!

  10. Robsobs Last update is 945 am..and your Charleswood IMBWINNI3 has one update at 11:21am.

  11. Plus 7C already in Riverview and Waverly Hts. Can you say GOLF this weekend.

  12. Looks like we'll be seeing some 20C temps over parts of southern AB and SW Saskatchewan today with noon temps of 16-19C already. That airmass will be over southern MB on Friday with 850 temps of 15C moving in! For this time of year that will translate into afternoon temperatures of 12-15C, coolest in the RRV and warmest over SW MB. Great weather to rake up those leaves, get the Xmas lights up.. or just enjoy doing nothing! :)

  13. I have the snowblower all ready to go and I'm itching for a BIG snow with lots of COLD!!!

    I'm like Dan from NWS Grand forks!

    The colder the better!

    Am I alone on this one??????

  14. Can anyone tell me how 925 mb temperatures could affect surface temperatures?????

    In Grand Forks weather discussion they state that an influx of warm 925 mb temperatures could have a negative impact on really warm temperature at the surface for Friday!!!

  15. Daniel..

    The discussion was stating that partial cloud cover and limited mixing would work against warm air at 925 mb from getting to the surface. So it's the cloud and lighter wind that is working against the full warming at the surface, not the warm 925 mb temperatures.

  16. Oh is see...thanks for the explanation!

  17. Daniel

    I will be itching for snow soon but not yet. Machines are still working in the mud and haven't switched anything over for snow yet but will start getting ready in the next 7 days. As far as the cold below zero yes. 25 below and colder no thanks.

  18. Anybody have the records for the latest snowfalls that resulted in a snow cover until spring? If that makes sense.

  19. I rembember sometime around 1989 we had our first snow fall just before Christmas I think the day before. We had a few snow flurries before that but we were hunting in the Whiteshell walking in grass in December. Not sure if it was 88-89. But sometime around then.

  20. Will someone check between 1961..and 64 Visited Winnipeg at Christmas on one occasion and the snow wasn't here yet in late Dec.

  21. Just checked --in 62-63 no measurable snow that stayed until Dec21 and even that was down to a trace by Jan 8th til the 13th. Until then there had never been more than 8cm (in those days 3inches) on the ground.

    That would Make the latest snow Jan13th 1963

  22. There might be a remote chance that Winnipeg airport could break there record high today!

    It is 16.7 C!

    Maybe we just might...

  23. Interesting that in 1963 (following the winter of abysmal snowfall as Jim pointed out), Winnipeg recorded a very warm summer (especially overnight lows) and a warm fall. Is there a link between the two?

  24. Official snow on the ground measurements in Winnipeg began in 1955 but ended in 2003 when all snowfall measurements were terminated at the airport. During that time, there was never a Christmas with no snow on the ground, although some years came close, like 1997 (Trace on the ground during a strong El Nino winter)

    Prior to 1955, I know of at least 3 Christmases that were snowfree in Winnipeg, namely 1939 (when some residents spent Christmas Day golfing and lawn bowling), 1913, and the record warm December of 1877 which ushered in Winnipeg's warmest winter on record.

  25. WOW! Warming up nicely today with temperatures of 15C already over the western RRV according to MB ag-wx mesonet, 17C in Dauphin, 17-19C through Boissevain-Killarney in the downsloping off Turtle Mtn, and an amazing 21C (70F) in Minot ND as of noon! Looks like we're realizing the full potential of that warm air aloft today!

  26. Wow...23C in Minot.

    Only 14C in Steinbach...but I expect we'll get up to 15C before the day is done.

  27. Interesting downslope effect off of Turtle Mtn today. Most everyone in SW Manitoba is in the 16-19C range this afternoon, but a couple of spots northeast of Turtle Mtn are a few degrees warmer at 20-23C. Both MB ag-wx and Weatherbug mesonets show 23C this afternoon in Killarney, benefitting from a mini-chinook wind off Turtle Mtn. Winnipeg and RRV at 12-13C due to a southerly valley wind keeping us cooler than areas to our southwest.

  28. Warmest spots in southern MB today were downwind of higher terrain.. with downsloping southwest winds coming off Riding Mtns and Turtle Mtn. Some highs today included..


    This goes to show that warm air aloft can still be mixed down at this time of year, especially with the help of downslope winds.

  29. Further to the post about the effect of 925 mb temperatures on surface temperatures. I neglected to mention that very warm air above a cool surface will set up a stable inversion layer in the low levels, which acts to inhibit winds aloft from mixing down that warm air aloft. In this way, very warm air at 925 mb CAN have a negative effect on warming at the surface. This was not the case yesterday since we saw fairly brisk winds that enabled that warm air at 925 mb to mix down (especially to our southwest) This inversion effect however will become more evident when you have snowcover that prevents warm air aloft from surfacing.