Saturday, November 28, 2009

Above normal temps to end November.. colder weather to begin December

The above normal temperatures that have characterized most of November will continue through the end of the month before a change to colder weather just as the calendar flips to December. In the short term, generally quiet weather is expected over the next few days with cloudy to partly sunny skies, and afternoon temperatures near or slightly above the freezing mark, some 6 degrees above normal for this time of year. November 2009 will end up as the 3rd or 4th warmest November on record in Winnipeg since 1872, and barring any measurable precipitation over the next 3 days, will likely end up as the driest November since records began with only 0.5 mm total precipitation for the month.

By Tuesday, an Alberta clipper system will track through the Manitoba lakes and bring a threat of snow, especially through the Interlake areas. Gusty northerly winds on the backside of the system will draw in colder temperatures over southern MB by Tuesday evening, with temperatures finally dropping to normal or even below normal values for the beginning of December (normal highs -7C, normal lows -15C)


  1. Is there a good possibility of snow for winnipeg on tuesday?

  2. Break out the snow shovel!!!!

    Just enough snow to coat the grass white here in Winnipeg!!!!

    I wonder if that will be enough for the airport to register some precip.???

  3. The weather forecasters have been all over the map for the Tuesday forecasts. Some have called for heavy snow then backed off to light snow. Others have called for sunny skys and then flurries to then periods of snow to now a slight chance of flurries. No matter what I think they have pretty well covered all the possiblities. No wait they left out chance of rain I'll have to go back and check I'm thinking now that maybe I saw that somewhere to. Ha

  4. Models are coming more in line with Tuesday's clipper.. with the consensus track through the southern MB lakes. This would bring the swath of heaviest snow across the Interlake regions.. mainly north of Gimli with 5-15 cm possible. South of that track including Winnipeg, we will likely see some snow out of it, especially on the backside Tuesday afternoon/evening with 2-5 cm possible.

    NAM is a little further south on the track, bringing it through Winnipeg. If the track is further south, then the swath of heavier snow will be further south as well.. but at this point, most models are suggesting the bulk of the snow will fall north of Winnipeg.

  5. Winnipeg airport picked up 0.5 mm of melted snow in that dusting last evening.. the first measurable precip at the airport since Nov 1st (26 straight days without measurable pcpn). That puts us at 1.0 mm for the month now, and we lose our driest November honours (0.8 mm in 1976)

  6. Latest high resolution models like the NAM and the GEM are showing a little further south track on Tuesday's clipper.. taking a path along the TransCanada instead of further north like the lower resolution GLB and GFS. If correct, this would bring the threat of heavier snow to Winnipeg and southern Interlake.. perhaps 5-10 cm or more.

    We'll see if the higher res models are handling this system more accurately. Note that the model resolution on storm tracks can easily be off by 60 km or more at 48 hours which could mean the difference between a dusting and 15 cm of snow in this case. How much snow do you think Winnipeg will get? Register your answer in the latest blog poll!

  7. That dusting of snow last evening shows up well on morning satellite images. Ground is white over northern RRV into the Whiteshell/SE MB with bare ground south of Winnipeg. Surface reports indicate snowfall amounts ranging from about 1/2 cm in Winnipeg to 3 cm in Pinawa last night. Today's sun should melt off much of it today, at least where the sun can get at it.

  8. Rob!

    It looks like we COULD have broken some major records this month (driest, warmest) but are watching
    them vanish at the very end of the month!!!

  9. Storm emerges out of the Elbow region tonight and threatens Edmonton tomorrow with 5-10cm of snow. Storm quickly moves through SK and into Manitoba where it looks like it picks up some juice. 12z NAM shows Winnipeg and points North receiving a nice shot of snow! (5-10cm) Finally.

    Currently looking at the N. Sask River in downtown should see the ice flow. Iceberg Straight Ahead! I'm pretty sure the source for all of the ice comes from Jasper. Must be pretty cold out that way!

    Anyways...nice warm day on tap for CYXD. 9 Degrees today...this will be different from tomorrow. Let the flakes fly!

  10. The GFS has gone completely crazy with the cold air in about 10 days from now!!!!

    I know it's the GFS and that will most certainly change but could you imagine that cold of an airmass that early in December!!!

    850mb temperatures of -26 C


  11. Models have all fallen in line as of the 18Z run. GFS and NAM are almost identical, which is a nice change. They both show about 10cm for Winnipeg, with a band of 10 to 15cm amounts through the southern Interlake. Areas like Steinbach, Carman, and Brandon are in the 5 to 10cm range.

    The GEM/GLB shows the heaviest amounts going right through Winnipeg, with about 15cm. This model is slightly farther south with the track, but very similar with amounts.

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