Saturday, November 17, 2007

Some wet snow Sunday?

A warm front is forecast to push across Southern MB on Sunday which will spread an area of wet snow and rain ahead of it. For Winnipeg, it looks like the precipitation will start off in the morning as a period of wet snow that will change to rain before ending in the afternoon. Current forecasts call for up to 5 cm of snow in Winnipeg, but this seems a little on the high side for this situation. I've been noticing that the GEM model, which drives the local forecast, has been overdoing snow amounts with warm fronts over southern MB so far this season, at least here in Winnipeg. Typically, we don't get a lot of snow with warm fronts, as the band of precipitation is usually fairly narrow and moves through quickly which limits snowfall accumulation. In addition, we have southerly winds tomorrow which will bring above freezing temperatures in the lowest layers fairly quickly. As a result, I expect perhaps 1 or 2 cm of wet snow at most Sunday morning that will melt off in the afternoon as temperatures rise above freezing.

Whatever the case, this won't be a major snowstorm and snowlovers are getting anxious for a good snow to develop here in southern MB. The ground is still bare, and in many areas the grass is still green indicating ground temperatures are still above freezing. And long range models are not indicating any major snowbearing systems through next week over southern MB. Things can change of course, but at this point, it appears that November 2007 is following the trend of most of our winters over the past decade.. a slow start with below normal snowfall to start off the season. Could this be our new normal?

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