Saturday, September 29, 2007

Windy warm day in store..

We've had a pretty good run of nice weekends here in Southern MB in September, with some of the warmest days this month falling on the weekends. And it looks like we'll have another nice day today with gusty southerly winds sending temperatures into the mid twenties.. some 10 degrees above normal for the end of September. Those southerly winds will increase by early afternoon with gusts to 60 km/h likely especially through the Red River valley which tends to funnel southerly winds. That should strip off a few more leaves today! A cold front will move through tonight bringing possible showers with clearing and cooler, but still pleasant conditions for Sunday. Nice weather should continue into the first few days of October. Get out and enjoy these last nice days of autumn! (hopefully we get a few more in October.. and even November!)


  1. Hi,

    Just wondered, do you have any predictions when we might see our first snowfall this season?

  2. Very difficult to predict at this point.. so far, it doesn't look like any snow in the foreseeable future (a week or two) Generally, southern MB will see it's first snowfall by the end of October. Current long range outlooks are indicating above normal temperatures for the Prairies for much of October, but that doesn't mean we can't get a snowfall or two sometime during the month.

    However, given that the Arctic ice cover was at a record low this year, and given temperature patterns of the past few years.. odds are we will have a late start to winter again this year. But, as usual, Mother Nature holds the cards..

  3. The models are actually hinting at wet snow flakes mixing in with steady rain in Saskatchewan. It would be on the northwest fringe of big system tracking up into the dakotas...

    A sharp southwest upper flow will develop allowing the system to tap deep moisture from the gulf. A huge temperature contrast will set up along a warm front with low thirties possible in Fargo and cold enough for snow in Saskatchewan.

    Looks like the warm front will lift to just south of Winnipeg by Saturday morning. With a low level jet overrunning the boundary and plenty of moisture...we could get hit with some nocturnal tstorms and heavy rain.

    However with such a volatile situation, the models are all over the place even from run to run...who knows...anything is possible!

  4. Exactly right Daniel... the models have been having a difficult time trying to resolve what will happen with this system. That explains the major flip flops in the forecast for this upcoming long weekend.. more details in my next post.