Sunday, March 04, 2007

Sharp cold front on its way..

It's a nice mild start today with temperatures of -3 as of 8 am this morning.. however a sharp cold front is forecast to drop through Southern MB from the north today, which will bring in gusty northerly winds and much colder temperatures. Those northerly winds will drop temperatures in Winnipeg to the minus 12 level by late afternoon.. with a forecast low of minus 26 tonight, our coldest night since mid February. Sunny skies and highs of -14 are forecast for Monday, but winds will be light which will make it feel more comfortable. The good news is this cold snap will be short lived. Milder temperatures are forecast to move in by Tuesday as a mild Pacific flow begins to bring warmer air across the Prairies from the west. However, the currrent forecast high of +8C for Thursday for Winnipeg is way too optimistic. With an extensive snowpack across the Prairies, and 50 cm of snow on the ground across southern Manitoba.. any warm sector crossing Southern MB will be cooled more than forecast models indicate. Looking at Thursday, the setup for a warm day is unimpressive. We have a weak low that is forecast to move across the Interlake, with an occluding warm sector moving across southern MB. If we can get a westerly flow on Thursday, Winnipeg may be able to hit +2 or +3C as we tap milder air from the west.. otherwise temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark.


  1. Cold front has just passed through Winnipeg as of noon.. winds have picked up to 50 km/h sustained and temperatures are starting to fall. We'll be down to -9 within a couple of hours and -13 by evening. Note it's down to -9 in Gimli right now and -13 in Fisher Branch.

  2. I see the high on Thursday has been dropped to a more reasonable +4C.. don't be surprised to see that forecast high continue a downward trend over the next few days.

    By the way, today's forecast high of -19 for Winnipeg will probably work out for the airport site.. but look for temperatures to be a good 4 to 5 degrees higher in the city itself today due to that strengthening March sunshine and light winds maximizing the urban heat island effect.