More rain on the way...

A large area of rain over North Dakota (see image) is spreading north into southern MB tonight and will bring steady rain to the Red River valley tonight into Sunday morning. The rain may be heavy at times, possibly with some embedded thunderstorms, with amounts of 15-25 mm possible by morning especially over southern and western sections of the Red River valley.

Rainfall update

Rain is moving through Winnipeg this afternoon, with about 7 mm reported by most sites across the city as of 3 pm. Note that I'm currently having problems with rainfall readings from my Rob's Obs site.. I just checked the rain gauge and some bird has decided to use it as its own personal bird seed collector! So the gauge is jammed with bird seed and not reporting rainfall accurately. I'll try to clean it out over the next day or so, but until then, Rob's Obs rainfall will be inaccurate. Look at the PJ school site for more accurate Charleswood rainfall.

As for this rain.. it should gradually taper off tonight then we get a few showers Saturday before another batch of rain moves in Saturday night into Sunday from the Dakotas. Models are showing a real soaker out of this Saturday night event, especially over southwest MB with 30-50 mm possible, likely with embedded thunderstorms. Not the best timing on a weekend, but it's sure welcome for farmers..

Rain on the way..

After 4 weeks with little or no rain over southern Manitoba, it appears that we'll be seeing our first significant rain event over the next few days. A first wave of rain is expected to move in from the southwest on Friday, spreading into the Red River Valley by afternoon, and Winnipeg by mid to late day. This first band of rain may bring 10-20 mm of rain to Southern MB Friday into Friday night. On Saturday, a second wave of showers and thunderstorms, locally heavy over North Dakota, and forecast to spread northward into southern MB by Saturday afternoon. This second wave of rain is forecast to bring heavier rain amounts, possibly 15-30 mm over portions of Southern MB Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. The rain is expected to move out of Southern MB on Sunday as the main low pressure system moves off to the northeast.

Summing up.. rain moving in from the southwest on Friday into Friday night with 10-20 mm possible.. a second wave of rain, sometimes heavy, developing Saturday into Saturday night, with 15-30 mm possible.. heaviest amounts south and west of Winnipeg. Total rainfall amounts over the weekend ranging from 15-25 mm Red River valley with 25-40 mm possible over southwest MB. At least, that's what current models are predicting.. we'll see if it works out. Note that we'll be experiencing a sustained southeast flow Friday and Saturday, which will be advecting some of those higher 10-13C dewpoints over the central plains northward into southern MB, especially southwest MB. This should help fire up some of that convection over the next couple of days.

Rain fails to ease fire threat..

RAIN over much of the province did little to dampen the forest fire threat in southern Manitoba, a government official said Monday. Tom Mirus, Manitoba Conservation supervisor of field services, said scattered showers and cooler temperatures only delayed the spread of the largest fire burning in the southeast corner of the province -- it did nothing to put it out.

"They had a sprinkle of rain and that was it," he said at a media briefing. "It's keeping us pretty busy." What cloudy skies did give firefighters was a chance to get the upper hand on the blaze -- it's burned 3,800 hectares so far -- before sun and wind return to the forecast for the rest of the week.

On the plus side, there were no new fire starts reported Monday. Mirus said the province's biggest forest fire started as three separate ones in the Vassar area over the weekend, but quickly spread to burn as one. The fire is spreading north from an area near the town of Vassar toward the tiny hamlet of Badger, although about six kilometres still separate the community from the flames.

"We don't feel (Badger) is threatened at this time," Mirus said, adding firefighters are doing their best to protect the few homes and cottages in the area. As of Monday only people bothered by smoke had left the area. The cause of the fires remains under investigation. Four investigators are on the scene trying to trace who was responsible. A conviction for deliberately setting a fire carries a maximum fine of $10,000.

Mirus also said conditions are still tinder dry and ripe for more fires as there has been little precipitation since the snow melt. Spring-time foliage has yet to bud, meaning there is little shade or greenery to slow the spread of fire through grass, deadfall and garbage. Open fires are prohibited until Nov. 15 unless a burning permit is obtained and only approved fire pits are used, such as campfire grates in provincial campsites.

Mirus also said that of 35 fire grass and forest fires reported so far this year, all were caused by people. The biggest culprits are ATVs running through the forest and hot mufflers igniting dry grass. "Often they don't know they're started a fire," Mirus said of ATV riders. "It's major headache for us." Mirus said the fight against the Vassar fire has so far cost $250,000. Eleven water bombers, four helicopters, nine bulldozers and scores of firefighters are trying to put it out.

On Saturday, community members and fire crews fought a smaller blaze with water bombers and water tank trucks, in a desperate effort to stop the fire from spreading to backyards and towards their homes. Some residents of the town lost sheds and fences to the blaze, about 135 kilometres southeast of Winnipeg in the Rural Municipality of Piney. The blaze moved north, away from town, but then merged with two other small fires to produce the province's worst forest fire of 2007.

To put it into perspective, last year 35 fires had also been reported by this time, but only 174 hectares had been burned. To date, all fires in Manitoba this spring have burned 4,300 hectares.

From the Winnipeg Free Press

Minimal rainfall today

Well it looks like the anticipated rainfall for today is going to be a lot less widespread and weaker than originally thought. Some organized showers are moving through north of the Riding Mtns into the Interlake today with 5 to 10 mm possible while a few showers and some scattered thunderstorms are moving across ND to our south. In between these two areas.. only scattered light showers are expected with perhaps a couple of mm of rain passing through much of southern MB today.. hardly enough to make a difference to soil moisture levels. After that, it looks warm and dry through the upcoming week again. Long range models are hinting at the possibility of some heavier rainfall next weekend over southern MB, but this is still a long ways off to have any confidence at this point. So relief from the current dry spell is still a ways away yet.