Friday, April 29, 2016
Beautiful weekend ahead.. dry weather to continue for the next week
Finally! A beautiful weekend to enjoy in southern Manitoba. Weekends in April have not been kind to Monday-Friday workers, with below normal temperatures and a washout weekend in mid April. But this weekend looks terrific to enjoy the outdoors and get that BBQ going.. plenty of sun and temperatures in the mid to upper teens, slightly above normal for the end of April (normal highs 15C). And the good news is the dry weather should continue much of next week, with no major systems expected to impact southern Manitoba through next Friday. In addition, temperatures will be climbing into the mid 20s by the end of week, although there may be a brief cooldown mid week. The next threat of any meaningful rainfall over southern Manitoba looks to be over the weekend of May 7-8th as a storm system tracks across the Dakotas with showers and possible thunderstorms. It's still a week ahead though, and there's still considerable uncertainty on the track of this system and what impacts it will have on southern Manitoba. In the meantime.. enjoy the lovely dry weather!
Posted by rob at 5:49 PM
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Interesting feature over SW Winnipeg this afternoon. Smoke plume from wildfire or crop burning visible. Plume hitting inversion level with mid level flow advecting it eastwards. Directly above the inversion a pyrocumulus was present.ReplyDelete
Hey Rob, a question for you. The latest GEMGLB is saying that there will be humidex readings of 35, dewpoints of 17C on Friday with a good amount of shear and a lifted index between minus eight and minus ten. CAPES of 3,000 J/Kg and enough lift along a cold front for storms. What are your thoughts on this? Could there be a severe weather event setting up? At the moment I am thinking that it is probable. What are your thoughts on this??? Can you check this site for details?? http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&mod=gemglbReplyDelete
17C dewpoints seems a bit extreme.. which is leading to these higher CAPE values. Seems overdone in my opinion. Note also that latest guidance has the front coming through around midday Friday, which isn't the most favourable time for tstorms to develop. Ideally you want late afternoon timing to tap into greatest heating potential.Delete
There is 1 thing you can say about 2016 weather-wise. Consistency. The further west you go outside of MB is where you'll find the warmer Temps. It's been that way throughout 2016 and now we are in May it continues. While AB and SSK bask in summerlike weather yet again, we get the windy and cooler weather. Still waiting for sustained warmth here. Though we do get a taste of that summerlike weather Thursday, it will be short-lived as we cool right down for Friday and Saturday while the west yet again will be the focus for the warmer Temps. Sure hope that doesn't continue into the summer because it won't be much of a summer around here if that's the case.ReplyDelete
Hey Rob, when will our next chance of thunderstorms occur? Thoughts? Thanks.ReplyDelete
Record high for Thursday in Winnipeg is 31.7C in 1926. We have a good shot of breaking that record with lots of sun, dry soil, low dewpoint, and westerly surface flow... ideal conditions for maximum heating. 925 mb temps of 27C would support a maximum of 33C tomorrow afternoon.ReplyDelete
I see cloud cover has kinda ruined this day as per usual around here. It seems Winnipeg is the coolest spot in South MB as of 5 PM. Big shocker.ReplyDelete
As for the 30C weather tomorrow, well there could be a wildcard or two that could play the spoiler on that. 1 being smoke from the Alberta fires and other would be cloud cover just like today. Wouldn't be too surprised if either or ruins the chance for the 1st 30C this season because that's often the case around here.
Whatever the case tomorrow, enjoy it because it cools right back down on Friday. Just can't get any sustained warmth it this province this year.
IF we can manage to get dewpoints over 10C tomorrow in Winnipeg by 2 degrees and a temperature of 23C it is likely we may see thunderstorms develop in the afternoon. GDPS latches onto this idea. Whereas the other models keep temperatures above 30C while that smoke from AB may hinder that 30C. A note we are dealing with a low pressure system at the moment for tomorrow but it looks weak. Unless that humidity goes up. Thats why I added the chance of storms in my forecast for Winnipeg tomorrow on my Twitter. Mike @SouthMBWeather.ReplyDelete
You got it bang on Mike. It looks like some of that smoke or haze from the AB fires has already moved in. No 30C tomorrow if that's the case.ReplyDelete
Wow so much for all of you negative Nelly's convinced there was no way we would hit 30C. Well I guess you were right, we hit 35C. Have some faith once in a while. And yes we did have plenty of haze from the AB forest fires as evident from the red sunset, so obviously it has little effect unless you are right under the thick plume. Relax people it is the first week of May. It's only spring. Everyone wanting a sustained stretch of hot weather??!! That's what summer is for, not the first week of May.Delete
Wow, just unreal how Winnipeg is about 6 to 10 degress cooler than everywhere else in the south. Wow. No shock there however.ReplyDelete
Flow aloft tomorrow should take any smoke from AB fires mainly over northern Manitoba. We should be generally sunny over much of southern MB Thursday. As I mentioned.. ideal heating conditions for Winnipeg with westerly flow and low humidity. Most guidance calling for highs of 30-33C for Winnipeg Thursday, which is what happened over southern SK today.ReplyDelete
34.2 as of 3:30pm. Toasty out there.ReplyDelete
Rob, is this the earliest date it has reached 35 C at YWG Airport?ReplyDelete
Yes it is.. by a long shot. The earliest the airport ever hit 35C was May 19 1948, so we beat it today by a full 2 weeks. The only earlier date of 35C in Winnipeg was May 8 1874 as registered by St John's college weather station downtown (considered part of the official Winnipeg climate record).Delete
What was today's high? Was it exactly 35C?ReplyDelete
35.2C Winnipeg was the Canafian hot spot, and almost hotter than anywhere in the US! (36C in Phoenix)Delete
Ideal conditions for maximum heating in Winnipeg yesterday.. full sun, very low humidity (desert like 12%!), dry soil, and a westerly wind that can add a degree or two with a bit of downsloping off the Pembina escarpment. 33-34C looked like our top yesterday but we overachieved with the ideal conditions for maximum heating.
Wow. That's impressive!Delete
It's been getting rarer recently that Winnipeg will crack 35C at any point in the summer much less in May. Talk about a smashed record!
Sprinkles that moved through deposited more dirt than anything else. Likely lots of soil erosion occurring, and two large forest fires burning near the Manitoba/ Ontario border. Oh how quickly things can change.. needing rain. Hopefully this pattern breaks this week.ReplyDelete