Monday, May 09, 2016

Warm start to week with a cold finish.. and some rain in between..

It's been a summery and dry start to May in southern Manitoba with plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures. As of Sunday May 8, the monthly mean temperature for the month has been 14C in Winnipeg, about 3-4C above normal for the first week of May.  And the warm weather is expected to continue Monday with another sunny but hazy, breezy and dry day, and highs of 25C.  But that will be the end of the warm weather for awhile as the upper weather pattern shifts this week to bring cooler and more unsettled weather into southern Manitoba.  Tuesday will see a band of showers sweep across southern Manitoba ahead of a deepening storm system over Montana and Dakotas.  Scattered showers are expected Wednesday as the storm system slowly tracks across southern Manitoba, before cooler weather arrives Thursday behind the system with northwest winds and occasional rain keeping temperatures only near 10C.  The rain should pull off Friday, but temperatures will be quite chilly with highs only in the single digits of +5-8C, quite a contrast to the how the week started in the mid 20s.

But we can use the rain. Today marked the 3rd straight week with little or no rainfall in Winnipeg and much of southern MB. Preliminary guidance is indicating that 10-20 mm of rain is possible between Tuesday and Thursday across Winnipeg and the RRV. And at this point, not too many people will be complaining considering how dry things have been. In fact the dry weather has led to a couple of large wildfires near the Ontario/Manitoba border over the past few days, and Monday will see high risk fire weather conditions with gusty southeast winds, warm temperatures and low humidity.  

7 comments:

  1. Hi Rob. As much as I agree with you about the need for rain tomorrow Tuesday we have A 10 am Tee time at Granite Hills junction of Lee River and Winnipeg River north east of Lac DuBonnet. Will we be able to finish before the rains come. And yes retirement does have some advantages like low spring golf rates. Good thing as retirement doesnt bring lots of $.



    and the on again off again forcasts has me wondering what to expect.. I hope for some sun and temps in the low twenties. What is your. Thoughts on this

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    1. Jim.. rainwise you should be fine. Any showers that do make it to Lac Du Bonnet tomorrow aren't expected until mid to late afternoon. Even then, looks like just a weak band going through.. not much.

      Bigger issue will be the smoke from the Caddy Lake fire. Southeast winds are bringing the smoke into Lac Du Bonnet area although I don't know how bad the smoke is at ground level. Winds should stay out of the southeast through tonight and much of Tuesday, so smoke will continue to be a concern out that way.

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    2. Thaks Rob You were bang on with your forecast and the smoke was heavy just out near the end of the road and on the golf course.when we started but the wind picked up and blew most away by noon. Rain or mist started on our way back near beausejour and was heavier near Birdshill Park

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    3. Thanks Jim.. glad you got your round in. Won't be the best golfing weather for the next few days around here.. more showers on tap later today into tonight, then we get cold Thursday into Saturday with highs only in the single digits.. and even a chance of flurries Thursday night into Friday morning!

      Warmer and drier next week.

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  2. Well, we started the week with warm sunshine and 26C on Monday. Then we had springlike showers Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by a blustery fall-like Thursday. We completed the seasonal cycle with snowflurries this morning.. all 4 seasons within a week! Ahhh, spring in Manitoba!

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  3. Rob, there appears to be some indication of potentially our 1st organized thunderstorm threat somewhere around the end of the long weekend.

    What are your thoughts on this

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    1. It's quite a ways away yet, but long range guidance is trending towards a warm and increasingly humid long weekend, with showers and thunderstorms likely by Monday as a cold frontal trof moves through. However, way too early to give more specifics as tstorm risk and severe potential will be based on timing of trof and how moist airmass will be ahead of it.

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