Warmer weather is finally on the way over southern Manitoba this week, but it looks like it will be getting progressively wetter later in the week as well. Significant rainfall is possible in some areas (possibly 25-50 mm) especially over SW Manitoba and the Interlake regions where cooler temperatures will prevail as well. The details:
After a clear and cold night tonight, Tuesday will see increasing clouds and increasing southerly winds as well. Temperatures will begin climbing closer to normal values with afternoon highs near +6C in Winnipeg, but cloud cover and brisk southerly winds will make it feel cooler. Wednesday is looking like the nicest day of the week as we get into more sunshine and lighter winds, and temperatures into the low teens for the first time this month. On Thursday, a warm front pushing up from North Dakota will start spreading clouds and some scattered showers across southern MB, with increasing humidity and temperatures in the teens.
 |
Friday will see a battle zone setting up over southern MB with
warm humid air to the south and cool air to the north. Areas of
heavy rain are expected along and north of the frontal zone |
Things get even more interesting by Friday. On Friday, the warm front over North Dakota will push into southern Manitoba and stall somewhere from Pilot Mound through Winnipeg into the Pinawa area. This front will mark a battle zone across southern MB, delineating warm springlike conditions over the southern RRV and SE MB (where 20C temperatures are possible), from much wetter and cooler conditions north of the front (significant rain over SW MB into the interlake along with temperatures in the single digits). For Winnipeg and areas near the frontal boundary, the location of this front will have a major impact on temperatures and precipitation chances. If the front is north of Winnipeg, we'll see warmer temperatures and less rain. If the front is south of us, look for cooler temperatures and more rain. Models have been flip flopping on whether or not this front makes it north of Winnipeg but we're only talking about a few miles that can make a big difference. We'll keep you posted on how models trend with the position of this front as the week goes on. Suffice to say, Friday will see some significant rain across portions of southern MB (possibly even some embedded thunderstorms) while other areas (especially south and east of Winnipeg) see warmer temperatures possibly near 20C. The unsettled weather will push across southern Manitoba Saturday with more showers, followed by drier and cooler conditions Sunday.
Models continue to waver on where that warm front will end up Friday as far as Winnipeg is concerned. Today's NAM has pushed the front north of Winnipeg, putting us in the warm sector and allowing temps to warm up to 18C in the afternoon with little rain. The GFS on the other hand shows the front staying south of Winnipeg, with northeast winds keeping temps only in the single digits along with with periods of rain. Canadian GDPS shows us in the warm sector through midday, then the front pulls south of us in the afternoon with northerly winds drawing in cooler air in the afternoon. Still waiting on the new Euro run, but last night's run had Winnipeg in the warm sector much of the day and afternoon temps near 17C.
ReplyDeleteAs you can see.. there's a big bust potential Friday for temperature and precip forecasts depending on where this sharp warm front eventually ends up. Most however do indicate the greatest rainfall amounts from SW Manitoba into the southern Interlake regions, and the warmest temps over the southern RRV and SE MB.
12Z Euro is out, and they've shifted the warm front just south of Winnipeg this run, keeping warm air south and east of the city. Showing a high of only +8C now, down from yesterday's forecast high of 19C. Yeah, a little different.
DeleteAre thunderstorms still possible on Thursday and Friday in the Red River Valley? Thoughts? Thanks let me know
ReplyDeleteYes, especially along and north of the warm front in the overnight hours. I think that's what is leading to some of those heavier model precip forecasts over southern MB.
DeleteThursday's actually looking pretty nice for Winnipeg/RRV.. will likely see some morning showers (maybe even a clap of thunder?) but then we break into sunshine by afternoon with temps rising into the upper teens. Springlike day..
ReplyDeleteModels still at odds as to where that warm front will end up Friday with respect to Winnipeg.. GFS continues to say it will stay south of us, but most others are showing the front will lift north of us, at least temporarily, Friday morning. But I don't think we'll benefit much from a true warm sector day in terms of sun and warmth.. we'll likely stay cloudy with showers developing by afternoon with periods of rain, heavy at times, Friday night into Saturday. At this point, rainfall amounts are still all over the place, but looks like a general 30-40 mm for Winnipeg/RRV Friday through Saturday, with more to our north and west (50 mm possible), and less over SE MB (less than 20 mm).
ReplyDeleteWhatever the case Friday and Saturday, enjoy today and tomorrow! A beauty day ahead today with sunshine and afternoon temps near 15C. 18C tomorrow afternoon after some morning showers!
Delete12Z NAM has backed off on that warm front for Winnipeg Friday.. now has it just staying to our south with heavy downpours moving in by afternoon (20-30 mm). First run that the NAM has shown the front staying south of Winnipeg..
DeleteHey rob, does the chance of thunderstorms still exist? I guess me and many weather enthusiasts are anxious for storms.
ReplyDeleteMike.. there's a risk of a thunderstorm overnight into early Thursday morning in the Winnipeg forecast, but I think the chances are slim, and anything that goes will likely be over North Dakota that may slip into southern RRV early Thursday. Setup is better for a few more thunderstorms to fire up overnight Friday into Friday morning along an 850 mb warm front that will be pushing up from the MB/ND border. Possibility of a line of tstorms moving up from the MB/ND border early Friday pushing north through the morning with heavy downpours.
DeleteThank's Rob. I am working on a blog post so that information is really helpful. Can I add it to my blog?
ReplyDeleteSure. Just remember to say where you get your information from if you're quoting from other sources.
DeleteRob, I've been hearing that May could be warmer than normal. What are your thoughts on this?
ReplyDeleteHaven't heard anything myself so far.. Certainly hope so, but too early to say right now.
DeleteMost models agreeing now that warm front will stay south and east of Winnipeg Friday, although Canadian RDPS model insists we get into southerly winds for awhile Friday as front shifts north a bit. Won't matter much as we get rain anyways. Warmer air over SE MB, but even here, clouds and showers moving in by afternoon so not benefitting totally in the warm sector.
ReplyDeleteAs for rainfall, looks like area of moderate to heavy rain spreading into the RRV Friday morning (possibly with some embedded thunderstorms) reaching Winnipeg by late morning, then continuing through the afternoon into Friday evening, and continuing much of Saturday. Looks like about 15-25 mm Friday with another 10-20 mm Saturday. Totals of 25-45 mm over the next couple of days as a general average, but convection will be playing a major role, so some places will be seeing more over that time, some less.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHey rob you mentioned there would be thunderstorms in the Winnipeg area. Though EC doesnt have it in there forecast. I think they are wrong. Thoughts?
ReplyDeleteMike.. I mentioned the possibility of thunderstorms in Winnipeg, but not a certainty. Latest model guidance is now showing heaviest precip will come in 2 waves.. one tonight into Friday across SW Manitoba into the Interlake (with embedded thunderstorms possible), and then another wave over SE MB Friday night into Saturday (again some embedded thunderstorms possible) Best chance for Winnipeg to see a thunderstorm will be tomorrow around midday or so, but threat will be diminishing by then so I can see why EC doesn't have a risk mentioned for the city. In fact, latest guidance now shows there will be 2 main axes of heavy precip, one from SW MB into the interlake associated with first wave of convection (25-50 mm), then another axis of heavier precip over SE MB (25-40 mm). They actually show a bit of a precip minima over Winnipeg and much of the RRV Friday into Saturday..(perhaps 10 mm or less) This hints that most of the heavier convection (including thunderstorms) may miss us. It's a complicated system.. so you always have to be monitoring trends and not get fixed on one solution.
DeleteJust a note I want to add to Robs details, the RAP seems to have latched onto the idea of temperatures in the low to mid 20s in the Red River Valley for Friday. Also with a area of 1,000 Jkg of CAPE present in and around the Winnipeg area around 2 to four pm. Question is will thunderstorms occur within that timeframe? Possibly within the area of rain, as Rob mentioned there may be a thunderstorm mid afternoon here. Maybe added to the forecasts by tomorrow morning. See the soundings and data on my Twitter.... twitter.com/southmbweather
ReplyDeleteHopefully, you don't mind me posting on here Rob.
Sorry if it was a bad idea and I posted.
First wave of precip pushing through southern MB overnight into this morning.. Amounts not terribly impressive with about 5-10 mm over SW MB, and 15-20 mm in the Birtle-Russell area as of 9 am. Local amounts of 20-30 mm being reported by some Weatherfarm gauges over SE Saskatchewan (Stoughton/Corning to Moosomin areas) Area of heavies rain west of Lake Manitoba this morning pushing east into the interlake this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteFurther east, next batch of showers moving into western RRV this morning should push into Winnipeg by midday/early afternoon with about 5-10 mm possible, although some places could see more under heavier cells. That tapers off to scattered showers this evening before next wave of rain moves in overnight through Saturday. Saturday looking like a complete washout for Winnipeg/RRV and SE MB with steady rain through the day, north winds, and temperatures around +4C. Not a nice day at all. Rainfall amounts of 20-30 mm likely Saturday with even higher amounts possible towards Ontario border.
First wave of rain passing through RRV this afternoon, with a good soaking of 10-20 mm over northern and western sections, including Winnipeg. Much less south and east of the city with less than 1 mm from Emerson through Steinbach to Pinawa and areas southeast. This first wave of precip will be pulling out by this evening.. then we get a break in the precip tonight before the next round moves up from North Dakota overnight into early Saturday morning and persists all day through Saturday night into early Sunday. Models have been wavering as to where this next band would set up, but it's looking more and more like much of RRV/SE MB will get the bulk of it, with a good 20-40 mm on top of what's fallen today. Nasty north winds and temps in the single digits will make for a very unpleasant day Saturday.. good day to stay indoors!
ReplyDeleteRob, I've heard that warmer temps return Monday and will last through the week.
ReplyDeleteIs that still in the works for next week?
Yes, it does look like we rebound nicely Monday through Wednesday with sunshine and temps around 14C Monday warming to 20C by Wed. There does appear to be a late week cool down for 2 or 3 days then signs of warming up again for last week of April.. hopefully more prolonged.
DeleteWell, 18 mm at my site from round 1. Generally 15-20 mm across the city today. Let's see what round 2 brings tomorrow.. looking like we'll get at least as much as today, and most likely even more.
ReplyDeleteLooks like models have backed off on the extent of the warmth Tuesday and Wednesday. More like mid teens now as opposed to low twenties.
ReplyDeleteWell after a nice 2 day break I see we are back to our regularly scheduled awful April. Looks like our 7 consecutive months of above normal temps streak is in serious jeopardy as April is most surely gonna end up below normal unless we get some kind of a major warmup between now and month's end and that does not appear likely. Any warmups we do see do not appear sustained at this point.
ReplyDeleteYeah, this April has been terrible. 17 days into the month and we've had 3 nice days so far. For the first 11 days of the month we were stuck on the cold side of the baroclinic zone with the upper ridge to our west. Then we had 3 nice days as the ridge shifted to our east, only to get trapped for 3 days on the cold wet side of the baroclinic zone ahead of a big mid continent upper trough. Not one nice weekend yet this month. Right on schedule, our weather improves for the first part of this week, before it cools off again, you guessed it, by next weekend. Can't catch a break this month.
DeleteWhat's really frustrating is that we lost our winter snowcover a month ago.. things could have been so much better. Meanwhile, BC and Alberta continue to bask as the upper ridge once again rebuilds out there. Highs of 30C+ in the Fraser valley next few days.
So enjoy the next 3 days.. Lord knows nice weather is a rarity here this spring! Sure hope our nice/lousy weather ratio changes soon!