After a miserably wet and cool weekend that saw 30 to 50 mm of rain dumped on the Red River valley, drier weather has returned to southern Manitoba this week with sunshine and temperatures above seasonal values. And it looks like we'll see one more warm day Wednesday before yet another change to cooler weather by Thursday which is expected to persist through the weekend into early next week. Wednesday should see sunshine mixing with clouds and temperatures near 20C in the afternoon with a southwest breeze. A cold front however will slide through southern Manitoba from the north Wednesday evening/night bringing a drop in temperatures for Thursday. Highs Thursday will struggle to reach 10C, some 10 degrees cooler than Wednesday's highs.
On Friday, a weak system will track across southern Manitoba from the west bringing an area of light rain, possibly mixed with, uggh, wet snow Friday morning over western Manitoba. (Current forecasts of "sunny" weather Friday for the Red River valley are way too optimistic based on current model guidance. Don't be surprised to see that forecast change over the next day or two)
The weekend looks generally dry but cool as high pressure over northern Manitoba maintains a northeast flow of dry cool air across southern Manitoba. A developing storm system over the central US plains states threatens to bring some rain across southern Manitoba early next week but most guidance is suggesting this area of precipitation will stay mainly south of the international border. If so, that would mean generally dry weather next week along with near normal temperatures. Sustained warmth however still appears to be delayed in arriving here as the upper flow keeps bringing spells of below normal temperatures over central and eastern Canada.
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Fire risk across Canada shows extreme
fire danger across western Canada (CBC image) |
Meanwhile, it's a different story over western Canada which has been experiencing an exceptionally warm and dry spring after a warm dry winter. Yesterday saw over two dozen record highs set in Alberta including 26C in Edmonton, and a sizzling 29.4C in Grand Prairie which tied its all time April maximum set back in 1977. Conditions have been extremely dry out west thanks to a persistent upper ridge over western North America. Calgary for example has seen only 0.6 mm precipitation this month, just 4% of normal and only 7.4 mm since Feb 1st (17% of normal). The dry conditions have led to an extreme fire risk across much of the province as well as parts of Saskatchewan. Hopefully, they get some much needed rain over the next few weeks otherwise forest and grass fires will become an increasing threat over the west.
Our sunny warm Wednesday has been interrupted by an extensive area of low cloud that had spread up from North Dakota overnight. That will rob us of our nice day, at least through the the morning. Hopefully we see some sunny breaks this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteCanadian GDPS is significantly further north with northern plains system for Sunday-Monday.. resulting in a wetter forecast for southern MB compared to other guidance. GFS and Euro both show bulk of precip staying south of US border, with generally dry and cool conditions in southern MB through the weekend into early next week. We'll see how the models trend on this system over the next few days, but right now, it looks like that 60% chance of showers for Sunday may be overdone.
ReplyDeleteWell so much for a nice warm day today. No way we get to 20 C if we don't clear up by this afternoon. Either way, however warm it becomes today, enjoy it because it's back to our regularly scheduled below normal pattern for the remainder of this month. So April is most surely gonna finish below normal and i'd say well below normal which will put an end to our remarkable 7 consecutive month streak of above normal temps.
ReplyDeleteAs we head into May, there are still no signs of a pattern flip to more sustained warmth here so unfortunately it looks like our below normal streak has only begun.
"No way we get to 20C". Ye of little faith. 19C at the airport and 20C on Rob's Obs at 5 PM. Such negativity. Trust the forecast once in a while. One month of slightly below normal temperatures does not constitute a streak.
DeleteAnonymous(5:44 PM)
DeleteWell if you would have read the complete line first then you would understand what I was saying. Fortunately we did clear up in the time to get to 20C. First 20C reading at YWG Airport this year and likely the last for quite awhile as it's back to below normal for much of the remainder of this month. We are more than just slightly below normal for April. Remember the 1st 11 days of this month were terribly below normal. 2 or days of temps a bit above normal won't change that much. We would need a sustained warmup for that to happen and that is not likely to happen until possibly month's end.
Have a look at my latest blog post.... southmbweather.blogspot.ca I talk about thunderstorm potential for this evening and a sign of a sustained warmup come the 28th of April through into May. Brett Anderson from Accuweather supports the idea. In fact my forecast for May in my Spring Outlook this year shows us getting much above normal. My April forecast has been quite accurate so far as I forecasted above normal precipitation and near normal temperatures. That has been the case so far this month. In 2013 we still had our winter snowpack on the ground didn't lose it until the start of May and it was cold into June. I remember that year I was 17 that year. So trust me we are doing so much better this year. So don't ever lose hope! "A man shouts out to the lord as he is afraid of the winds and says lord save me, the lord responds ye of little faith why did you doubt" I dont know the verse name but I do know that you have to have faith in these tough times. So trust in the lord, Rob hopefully you don't mind I posted a bible verse. Hopefully you can agree with me as well.
ReplyDeleteWeak system coming through southern MB Friday will spread clouds and some light showers across northern RRV and southern Interlake by afternoon/evening.. but amounts look minor if anything. The good news is once this system clears out, it looks like the rest of the month will be generally dry as main storm systems track south of the international border. We stay cool on the north side of the storm track, but at least we won't see much in the way of additional rainfall next week which is good news. There's still quite a bit of standing water left over by last weekend's washout.. so it would be good to have a spell of rainfree weather here for awhile to dry things up. Sunny and warm weather would be even better, but we'll have to settle for dry with seasonable temperatures for the next week or so.
ReplyDeleteRob, I've been hearing that we may finally turn a corner towards more prolonged seasonal or above seasonal temps early in May.
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts on this?
I'm not convinced yet of any big changes to sustained warmth here in May. There are some signs that we'll be warming up by the end of April into the beginning of May, but I'm not confident this will be long lasting or sustained. Long range guidance seems to point to the upper ridge being dominant over the West Coast through the beginning of May, which would put us into a variable to below normal pattern until that ridge breaks down. This is also consistent with April and May being generally below nromal in the Prairies after a strong El Nino event (as we've had this past winter).
DeleteHopefully, we see a more sustained pattern flip by the middle of May, which would bring more sustained heat into southern MB for the second half of May into June and the rest of the summer.