A pattern change to warmer weather is set to begin this weekend, with an extended period of above freezing temperatures likely much of next week across southern Manitoba. The warmer temperatures will start eroding the lingering winter snowpack still intact over much of southern Manitoba, including the Red River valley where current snowdepths range from 25 to 40 cm. However, some places in southern Manitoba have already lost much of their snowpack especially over SW Manitoba along the SK border, and parts of the Pembina river valley around Morden. These places will see the warmest temperatures this weekend, with values likely climbing into the double digits Sunday. Here in snowcovered Winnipeg and Red River valley, temperatures will not be quite as warm.. with highs Sunday in the 3 to 5C range. Note also that today will be see extensive cloud cover in the RRV as low level moisture gets trapped under a strong inversion (with warm air aloft overriding cold air at the surface) along with brisk southerly winds. Not the most pleasant day even though temperatures will be climbing to near zero today.
Mild temperatures will continue Monday, but a low pressure area tracking though the Dakotas will bring some springtime rain, yes rain, to southern MB Monday afternoon and evening. Slightly cooler weather is on tap Tuesday and Wednesday before temperatures climb above freezing again for the balance of next week.
Phenomenally warm day on tap Sunday across North Dakota, southern SK and snowfree/downslope areas of southern MB. Highs of 21C forecast for Bismarck, 19C for Minot, 15-18C for much of southern SK, and 10-13C possible for places like Melita and Morden. That'll make our 3-5C in Winnipeg seem like a rip-off, but we need to start eating away at that snowpack before we start seeing those really mild temps. At least it's a step in the right direction!ReplyDelete
Not a very mild day period here in the peg. It's always the same thing every year, we are the last place in the south to lose the snowcover and enjoy the real warmth. It's been Spring in Alberta and Saskatchewan since pretty much the start of February while we here in Southern Manitoba are still locked in full winter especially here in the Winnipeg area. Last year the snow was gone here by mid March, not gonna happen like that this year. More snow on the ground this year than at this same very period last year. I suspect that the +10 for Friday is grossly overdone here, more like +3 to +5.ReplyDelete
Today was our "flush out" day in Winnipeg and the RRV, with those nasty south winds blowing up the snow covered valley along with some trapped low level cloud keeping us much cooler than further west. The good news is Sunday should be a much nicer day for us as we lose the strong south valley wind, we'll see more sun, and we even get a bit of a westerly wind here by the afternoon which should boost us up to +5C or so. That should get some nice snowmelt starting here..Delete
Highway 75 was a mess with those strong southerlies on Saturday. Snow and ice-covered with heavy drifting. Traffic only moving 70-90 km/h. I passed by a car flipped on its side in the ditch just north of Morris. Many people stopped before police arrived. Also saw another car in the ditch on highway 14.Delete
Got up to 13C today in snowfree Melita today, and tomorrow should be just as warm or even a couple degrees warmer.. 15C quite possible. Regina was a record shattering 17.3C today.ReplyDelete
Tomorrow the warmth spreads east into southern MB and ND.. look for 20C+ temps across much of western and central ND, with +10C possible as close to us as Morden.
Rob, do you think that +9 or 10 C forecast for Friday is overdone?ReplyDelete
For Winnipeg, +10C is a bit optimistic, but snowfree/downslope areas of southern MB will likely see +10C or more. Friday looks like another day similar to today with brisk southerly winds up the Red River valley and some low level cloud possible again. I don't think it'll be as cold as today was, but perhaps +5C or so for Winnipeg Friday.Delete
Hey rob, EC is saying now that we will get above zero for daytime highs after the rain system on Tuesday. Is that possible? Or do you still think we will get below zero for highs.Delete
Most guidance shows Winnipeg staying below freezing Wednesday. Looks like just a one day thing.Delete
As expected, temps were below freezing today (Wednesday) in Winnipeg with temps struggling to -4C. That earlier forecast high of +2C was an outlier and obviously way overdone compared to other guidance for today. Euro was the closest at -3C today.Delete
Now we get back to another spell of above freezing temps.. and this looks like an extended spell beginning tomorrow (Thursday) and continuing into next Wednesday before we cool off again. We'll lose a lot of snowcover by that time!
And the forecast highs for the next few days is likely still way overdone. Still too much of a snowpack for double digit temps especially at YWG Airport.Delete
Although with overnights expected to stay above freezing as well over the next few days, if that pans out that is, that will help tremendously in reducing the snowpack as well.
In the end, it could be all for not as we may get all of that back with a good chance of snow as t some point over the next couple of weeks with a cooler regime in place for the 2nd of March.
It will feel alot like Spring over the next week or so but Winter certainly hasn't had it's last say yet.
Also, will we get rid of our snow pack before the end of March? I am kind of worried that we will cooldown again before the snow melts, accuweather is forecasting highs below freezing again after March 20th. Though the GEPS says possible highs above 10C around March the 15th. Thoughts?? I am anxious for spring weather and 17C to arrive.ReplyDelete
Looking good today! We've lost the low cloud and wind, so it's going to feel a lot more pleasant out there... Strong March sun will help us get up to +5C or so even with snowcover, while snowfree areas in southern MB hit double digits today (like Morden and Melita) Truly a springlike day to enjoy!ReplyDelete
I see the airport is doing it's cold bias thing as usual. Only 3 there while everywhere else in and around the city is at 7 or so. Pretty impressive day considering the high snowpack that still exists here.ReplyDelete
Another beauty day out there with plenty of sunshine and springlike temps of +5C.. even with a NE wind. Models still calling for some rain in Winnipeg and RRV tonight as storm system south of the border gets organized.. Not a lot of rain for Winnipeg expected with perhaps 2-5 mm, but models are hinting at the possibility of embedded convection over ND that may spill into southern RRV and SE MB overnight giving locally heavier rainfall, perhaps 10-15 mm. Any rainfall, along with temperatures remaining above zero tonight will really help with the snowmelt. We cool off Tuesday into Wednesday, with temps near the freezing mark Tuesday, and slightly below Wednesday. Then we warm up again Thursday through the weekend with temperatures staying above freezing. Given the forecast, it's possible much of the RRV will be almost snowfree by this time next week.ReplyDelete
Any chance of storms here?? in Winnipeg?ReplyDelete
Had a couple strikes north the city last evening near Selkirk. A few more thunderstorms popping up this morning near Grand Forks across nrn Minnesota to Lake of the Woods, but those should stay to our southeast, mainly clipping SE MB.Delete
Hey Rob, I had one more question. What are the odds of us getting above ten celcius at the end of the week? If we do how long do you think it will take for our snow to melt? I hope soon...ReplyDelete
I think parts of Winnipeg (like downtown) will get close to 10C by Friday, and perhaps 10C or a little more on the weekend into early next week. The airport will likely be about 3C or so cooler because of the snowpack initially. That snowpack will be going down considerably over the weekend, and I suspect we'll be seeing a lot of bare ground by early next week around the city and much of the RRV.Delete
Is there a system moving in next week?
WN and a few other sites sowing rain/snow for next week.
Jeff.. Yes, long range models are showing the potential for a Colorado low storm system affecting southern MB next Wed-Thu. There's still a lot of uncertainty on timing, track and speed of system and models have been flip flopping quite a lot on how this system will impact southern MB (anywhere from copious precip to a glancing blow). At this point, it looks like rain, possibly significant (15-25 mm) spreading into the RRV Wednesday changing to snow by Thursday, with the potential for accumulations depending on how quickly the transition to snow is. Still too early to be more specific at this point, but definitely a system to keep an eye on. Could be interesting.Delete
Models continue to struggle with that Colorado low system next week. Today's runs have backed off on a hit for southern MB with a weaker system tracking well to our southeast. But who knows what the next runs will bring? The flip flopping between successive model runs has been staggering. For example, the usually reliable Euro model had a 980 mb low tracking through Lake of the Woods and blasting southern MB with heavy snow and strong winds Thursday. Now they show a weaker low tracking through Iowa, completely missing southern MB. GFS has the system just grazing SE MB, while the GDPS has it tracking though Minnesota then looping over eastern ND before weakening to our southeast with some rain and snow over southern MB. So at this point, long range models continue to be all over the place on the track of this storm, and its impact over southern MB. That will lead to big discrepancies in the long range outlook for next Wed-Thu depending on what model and model run the various forecast agencies are using. Bottom line.. something to watch, but at this point, very little confidence on if or how it will impact southern MB.Delete
March model madness continues.. 18Z run of the GFS pastes Brandon with 52 cm of a wind driven snow next Wednesday as they bring a 976 mb monster low towards Emerson. Last run was a miss for us. Crazy. Let's see what tonight's run brings.Delete
Rob now the latest 00Z GFS pastes eastern areas of the province with about 50 to 60cm of snow, insane!http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gfs&run=00&type=PR&hi=000&hf=240&mode=latest&lang=en&map=na Even the GDPS differs from the GFS. About 20 to 25cm of snow here and across the south. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&type=PR&hi=000&hf=240&mode=latest&lang=en&map=naDelete
Mike.. As I mentioned, the models are having a really tough time figuring out how to handle that system. Last night's Euro now shows a weaker low tracking up through Yorkton SK, with a weak band of showers over southern MB Wednesday. Last night's model runs had the main low center anywhere from Yorkton SK to Iowa Tuesday evening. Crazy spread in solutions. Will need to wait a couple more days before we see a little better concensus on what to expect with this system next Tue-Thu. Until then, it's just wild speculation at this point.Delete
Just noticed EC is advertising a high of 19C! on Friday from Melita and Brandon through Morden and Emerson to Morris and Steinbach. Well, I can guarantee that snowcovered Morris and Steinbach won't be hitting 19C Friday, but places like Morden may come close with the benefit of sunshine, no snowcover and some warming downslope winds off the Pembina escarpment. With enough sun, snowfree areas of SW Manitoba have a good shot at 15-17C Friday as 925 mb temps rise to 10-11C while snowcovered Winnipeg and the RRV should get close to 10C as our winds veer into the southwest in the afternoon tapping some of that double digit warmth to our southwest. Should be an incredible spring day!ReplyDelete
Very warm air moving in over southern MB Friday will give potential for widespread 15-18C temps over snowfree ground and downslope areas. Snowcovered terrain over RRV will be a few dgrees cooler, but even in Winnipeg, we should get close to 10C by late afternoon as winds shift into the southwest which is a more favourable wind direction to get warm air into the city, even with snow cover. Note that Winnipeg/RRV could still be locked in low cloud Friday morning as we get low level moisture from a melting snowpack trapped under a steep inversion as warm air aloft moves in (925 mb temps of +10-15C by morning!) However, that should burn off by midday/early afternoon as our winds shift into the southwest and tap drier/subsidence air. I suspect southern RRV will see warmer temps as they have lost most of their snowcover around Gretna and Emerson.ReplyDelete
My maximum temperature forecasts for Friday:
Portage LP: 13C
Winnipeg Forks: 11C
Winnipeg Arpt: 8C
Looks like Winnipeg and the RRV will be locked in low cloud the rest of today through tonight into Friday morning with a southerly valley wind, and low level moisture trapped under a strengthening inversion as very warm air aloft moves in over snow covered ground. Better chance of clearing low cloud out of here by midday Friday as winds veer into the southwest.ReplyDelete
By the way, could see some very strong downslope winds in the Morden/Miami areas overnight into early Friday as southwest low level jet of 40-50 kt (70-90 km/h) pushes into southern RRV. This could give gusts of 70-80 km/h east of the Pembina escarpment, along with some very mild temps overnight/early Friday likely surging into the low double digits already as strong winds tap abnormally warm air aloft.
Ok.. I think I see why models are having such a difficult time resolving what will happen to that system for next Tue-Wed. It looks like this system will be composed of two low centers, not one.. and that is causing problems for the models to figure out. It looks like there will be a northern low tracking through southern MB Tuesday bringing some rain, while a secondary low develops over the Iowa area. The low over southern MB is forecast to track north and weaken, while the Iowa low takes over and intensifies as it tracks across Wisconsin towards Lake Superior. It then appears to stall and gradually weaken. Needless to say, there's a lot for models to resolve here, which is why they have been jumping all over the place from run to run, and model to model. I suspect we will see a little more consistency in the days ahead as models start catching onto the overall scenario expected.ReplyDelete
If the current trends hold, it would appear that we would miss a big snow dump here on Wednesday, and perhaps escape with some rain Tuesday followed by some flurries Wednesday into Thursday as we get colder behind the Wisconsin low. But again.. lots of uncertainty still and can't rule anything out yet.
Well so much for snowmelt around here. Another big bust for temps today in Winnipeg and I wouldn't be too optimistic about that forecast of 8 or 9 tomorrow either. Too much snow that still remains too realize those types of temps. Not that it matters anyway, way too windy tomorrow which will ruin otherwise what could be a very nice day and I say could be as it could very well be a repeat of today although the chance of that is low but as they say in weather nothing's a guarantee.ReplyDelete
Enjoy the warmer weather of sorts while it lasts because whether or not we get affected by that major system next week it's gonna become colder and that is likely to take us through the remainder of the month so I wouldn't say Spring has officially sprung just yet at least not in these parts.
Anonymous.. Don't worry. Tomorrow will be a much better day than today in Winnipeg and the RRV. Southwest winds will scour out that low cloud, and will also help boost our temps here up to 8C even with snowcover, possibly 10C in the city. Lots of melting tomorrow! And then the melt will continue through mid week next week which could mean we'll lose virtually all our snowpack by then.Delete
Your actually kind of wrong on the cold weather staying the rest of the month Anon, this CFS model shows the warmth arriving the 25th of March if we get colder behind that system. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showmastercfs.php As well if we miss this system and it could be a bonus we may stay above zero degrees and not get colder than that. I just hope and pray that we don't get cold or snow.ReplyDelete
Rob, does that cooldown for the 2nd half of next week look prolonged or do we warmup again shortly after that?ReplyDelete
Right now, it looks like the cooldown will last through the weekend of the 19-20th into early the following week. After that, long range guidance is hinting at above normal temps to close out March, but I don't have a lot of confidence at this point. Certainly the odds are better if we lose our snowcover next week and we don't get more.Delete
Rob, just what kind of a cool down are we looking? Are we looking at - 20 C cold and are daytime Temps likely to stay below freezing?ReplyDelete
No I don't think we'll get as cold as -20. But highs of -5C and lows in the -10 to -15C range look possible.Delete
Any new model forecasts for next week?
I know it is days away. It is just interesting to see if any of the forecasts were actually right.
Jeff.. Latest guidance is trending towards that strong storm system generally staying off to our southeast and moving towards Lake Superior instead. We get a weaker system bringing some showers here Tuesday, and perhaps a few cm of snow Thursday as we get colder behind the Lake Superior storm system, but at this point.. it's not looking like a big blast for us thankfully. We'll keep you posted if the models change their story.Delete
Pretty much a non event for us with that mid week storm system. Models continue to take intensifying low over Iowa tracking into southern Minnesota Tuesday, with a weaker band of rain extending northwest into southern Manitoba. Even the cooldown later next week doesn't look as pronounced as earlier indicated (although we will be cooling down). So looks like a band of rain moving through here Tuesday then gradually cooler Wed into the weekend with occasional flurries.. but nothing significant expected in terms of accumulations at this point.Delete
Rob, if we see any snowfall accumulations will they melt on contact? I don't like seeing any more snow building up on grass, or roadways. We just have gotten rid of our snow.Delete
A fairly cloudy and breezy start to the day, but satellite imagery shows a lot of sun on the way for this afternoon! Should be a beauty! Big dent in the snowcover over the next few days!ReplyDelete
Max of 11.6C at YWG airport today.. first double digit temp of the year and first 10C+ since Nov 16th. Last year, we hit our first 10C+ on Mar 14th (13.2C.) Snow pack went down at least 5 cm today at my place (22 cm to 17).Delete
Also Rob, models are now indicating a second storm system with snow amounts of 10+cm coming in around the 19th or the 20th and pushing in -20 to -30C temperatures behind it. Its mainly the GEM showing the one system and the GFS model showing 3 in a row all followed by February like temperatures. Thoughts? Heres a link to double check... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016031218&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=697ReplyDelete
GFS backed off on that system on latest runs. Other models not really showing much either for that time frame.Delete
Looks like models are coming in line with a fairly decent amount of rain coming into southern MB Tuesday, perhaps 15-25 mm in some areas with some embedded convection possible (springtime tstorms?).. before temps start falling Tuesday night into Wednesday with a changeover to snow. How much snow will depend on how quickly that cold air works in and how much the precip shield weakens, which is still in question by various models. Best guess is rain changing to wet snow in Winnipeg overnight Tuesday into Wednesday with some accumulations possible.. perhaps 5 cm or so, but again, highly dependent on when the changeover occurs and how quickly the precip shield moves out. Will continue to monitor.ReplyDelete
Models now showing that system Tuesday will be more intense over us after all.. Looks like a decent band of showers devloping Monday night over SW MB with possible embedded thunderstorms pushing into RRV by Tuesday morning. Rain then overspreads RRV Tuesday with some heavy amounts possible.. latest mesoscale models showing local amounts of 40-60 mm possible in some areas. That may be overdone due to convection, but it points to the liklihood of locally heavy downpours Tuesday with some training cells bringing a narrow axis of heavier rainfall somewhere over the RRV. As the low stalls over North Dakota, colder air will feed into the system and start changing rain over to snow Tuesday night into Wednesday with accumulations likely, especially over higher elevations of western MB where amounts of 10-15 cm are possible. Models have been bouncing all over the place with this system, so it remains to be seen how it all plays out.. but at this point, it seems this system will be bringing some significant precip to southern MB after all in the Tue-Wed timeframe.Delete
Thanks for the update Rob.Delete
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Thanks for the update and all the work you put into this blog! I have always enjoyed reading your well researched info.Delete
Appreciate the comments! Glad to provide any help or info when I can..Delete
Hey Rob, what happened to the thunderstorm chance here in Winnipeg? It's all around the city but not in the city. In my case I think that we have a chance tonight. What's your thoughts?ReplyDelete
They may have thought the risk was too low to mention in the city forecast, but included it in higher risk area to our southwest.Delete
Cpc outlook is now showing warmer than normal for 8-14 day. Did mother nature have a change of heart?ReplyDelete
Rob, do you think we have chance for thunderstorms tonight here in Winnipeg despite the forecast saying otherwise?ReplyDelete
And also has YWG Airport reached the record for this day or not?
High was 13.1C at YWG airport, just shy of the record 13.2C set just last year.Delete
Winnipeg missed out on the thunderstorms last night, but they came close to the city early this morning. A few strikes observed just east and southeast of the city early this morning as the rainbands moved in.
Hey Rob, What are the chances of snow staying on the ground here in Winnipeg after the snowfall? Any chance that it will melt later this week? I don't like snow staying, :p.ReplyDelete
Hate to say it, but it looks like we'll be waking up to snow covered ground again Thursday morning. A storm system intensifying over Wisconsin will spread an band of snow over NW Ontario back into southern Manitoba Wednesday into Wednesday night. Could start off as light rain or wet snow Wed afternoon, but by evening, I expect it to change to all snow, with accumulations likely Wednesday night. At this point, a general 5 cm looks possible by Thursday morning, but some areas could get close to 10 cm, especially east of the city to the Ontario border. Hate to see snow again, but it's still March after all! Temperatures look like they stay near or below freezing for the rest of the week into the weekend, so snow cover will likely stick around into next week unless amounts are minimal, or if we can get some good sun to melt it.Delete
I see though that Environment Canada has highs above zero for a while before minuses on the weekend whereas TheWeatherNetWork has daytime high's in the low plus single digits into the weekend and next week. I think TheWeatherNetWork will be right given there great accuracy here.Delete
Does EC forecast the Airport Temp and TWN the Forks? Given our strong Sun that would appear to account for the differenceDelete