Thursday, March 31, 2016
Cold start to April with occasional bouts of snow
The mild conditions that finished March will unfortunately not be continuing into the start of April as a spell of colder than normal weather pushes into southern Manitoba. A cold front tracking through southern Manitoba today is bringing a northerly flow of colder into the province, along with a coating of snow over western Manitoba (up to 10 cm northwest of Brandon early this morning). On Friday, a clipper system is forecast to dive across southern Manitoba by the afternoon, bringing occasional snow to the RRV in the afternoon and evening, with a coating to 3 cm possible. This will be followed by a cold Saturday with highs remaining below freezing (normal highs for early April are +5C) On Saturday night, another fast moving clipper will spread an area of light snow across southern Manitoba, with again, a coating to 3 cm possible Saturday night into Sunday morning. Monday looks quiet and cold before a stronger clipper system threatens rain and wet snow Tuesday into Tuesday night. Below normal temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday behind the system before a more general warmup by the end of the week into next weekend.
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Rob, I've heard that we may see a decent warmup with temps into the mid to possible upper teens sometime around the 10th or so.
ReplyDeleteWhat are thoughts on this?
Long range models are indeed showing warmer air moving into southern Manitoba over that Apr 9-10 weekend, but they're at odds as to how warm it will be. GFS and GDPS are more bullish, while the Euro is more conservative. So I think we will see a warmup by then, but how warm is still in question. Note that by April 10th, our "normal" highs are up to +8C, and +10C by April 15th.
DeleteLatest guidance now backing off on that warmup for next weekend.. Looks like a brief warmup Saturday then cooling off again Sunday into Monday. No sustained warmth over the next 7-10 days unfortunately.
DeleteMarch 2016 ended up almost 4C above normal in Winnipeg with a mean monthly temperature of -2.0C (normal -5.8C) It was our 7th straight month that has averaged above normal going back to Sept 2015. Much of the warmth came from the mid month warm spell that helped to eliminate our winter snowpack by the 15th. If you can get rid of the winter snowpack by the middle of March, chances are pretty good that the month will end up above normal since warmer air can more easily surface. On average, winter snowpack in Winnipeg isn't gone until early April.
ReplyDeleteLight snow starting to spread into the Red River valley from the north and west late this afternoon and will continue into early this evening. Looking at upstream webcams and observations, snow doesn't look all that intense with just a light dusting noted so far in Swan River and Dauphin. Note that low levels are still pretty dry in the RRV (dewpoints of -10C or lower, RH < 50%) so that may be working against heavier rates of snow from reaching ground. Nonetheless, expect a period of light snow through this evening, possibly heavier at times, with a dusting to 1 or 2 cm possible. Winds will be picking up from the northwest by mid to late evening as clipper scoots by, and cold front pushes through (yes, another cold front) I don't think there'll be much blowing snow or poor visibilities given the lack of snow and the timing of the snow vs wind, but winds and subfreezing temps may give some slick spots on area roadways this evening and tonight..
ReplyDeleteWell the heavier snow did finally surface in Winnipeg.. big fat flakes falling thick and heavy through the supper hour.. about 2 cm so far but should be lightening up over the next hour.
Delete4 cm total here at my site as of 8 pm. Snow has ended now. Winds will be picking up but snow is pretty sticky.. doubt there'll be much blowing around. However, it will be getting pretty slick overnight as temps drop well below freezing with those gusty winds. Careful on highways, bridges and sidestreets.. will be very slippery tonight into the morning.
ReplyDeleteSheesh.. below normal pattern into the second week of April. Some signs of a pattern shift to warmer weather for us by mid month, hopefully sustained. Until then, looks like we've taken a step backwards to start off this month.
ReplyDeleteWow, what an awful April this is turning into. Remember April 2013? Well it's pretty much deja vu all over again. The only difference you say, well the winter snowpack is gone in which it was not in 2013. Big deal, however. it's make no difference at this point. It's every bit as cold if not colder than April 2013. They say it's better without snowcover then with it, well not necessarily. Just because we don't have our winter snowcover does not mean it will be warmer sooner.
ReplyDeleteAnd now, with a ton of snow coming over the next couple of days, we will have ourselves a nice blanket of white which i'm afraid won't disappear anytime soon.
Another big blast of arctic air is likely to end the week and starting to look like the so-called warmup we keep hearing about is pushed back to later in April as models keep trending back on the warmup that was supposed to happen sometime around this coming weekend. But forget about it folks, it ain't happening.
What was the forecast for this coming Spring, oh yeah that's right, A WARMER THAN NORMAL SPRING. Unless there's something wrong with me, seems to me, we are nowhere near that. I guess mother nature has decided it's time for payback.
Crappy pattern continues with yet another clipper coming in today from the northwest.. We should see some wet snow mixed with rain starting up in Winnipeg/RRV this afternoon changing to all snow by this evening. Could see another 2 or 3 cm of slushy accumulation here through the evening before it tapers off overnight, although some places in the RRV will be more rain than snow with less accumulations. Nonetheless, not a pleasant start to the month with another cold shot coming in for Friday. Next clipper advances through MB interlake over the weekend with gusty south winds ahead of it for Saturday, then a shot of rainshowers/snow Saturday night with colder air behind it for Sunday into Monday. Finally starting to see some light at the end of the tunnel with a more sustained warming trend middle to end of next week with temperatures climbing into the double digits. Hang in there folks!
ReplyDeleteThankfully precipitation has come in as light rain this evening over Winnipeg/RRV and appears to be staying that way based on webcams to the west. Precip should gradually change to snow as the evening progresses, but given the current obs, amounts should be minimal.. perhaps a coating on grassy surfaces.
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