Tuesday, July 07, 2009

Severe thunderstorms, heavy rain possible Wednesday night

A storm system developing over Montana will track into the Dakotas on Wednesday, bringing an outbreak of severe thunderstorms over western and central North Dakota by late Wednesday. These storms will have the potential to bring large hail and damaging winds, with a few tornadoes possible. The strongest storms are expected in North Dakota, however a few severe thunderstorms are possible across far southern and southwest MB Wednesday evening with large hail and damaging winds as the main threat. Thunderstorms will continue to spread over all of southern MB Wednesday evening, bringing mainly heavy rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning with local amounts of 25 to 50 mm possible. Stay tuned on this developing severe weather situation with updates from NWS Grand Forks, SPC, EC and of course, Rob's Obs!


  1. Looks like the potential for a local chase day tomorrow!

  2. At the very least I hope we get a good Nighttime thunderstorm!

    Other than a rumble of thunder we have NOT had a thunderstorm overnight all year here in Winnipeg!

  3. Rob I have a question!

    I see today's record high is 41.1 C

    Is that Winnipeg's hottest temperature ever recorded????

  4. No.. it's the second hottest. That 41.1C reading was eclipsed 4 days later with a high of 42.2C during the granddaddy of all heat waves in this area.. July 1936. See my blog entry last July about Winnipeg's hottest day.

  5. Dramatic breakdown of current blocking pattern depicted by models. We have been stuck between weather systems with a potent polar vortex over N Ontario (highs in Geralton were in the low teens earlier this week) and another upper low over BC.

    Very well defined warm front at midlevels draped from Central Alberta to Southern Minnesota. Focused isentropic ascent and frontogenesis across the front, interacting with moisture and instability producing wide swath of rain across those areas. Locally we are affected by high pressure sending dry easterly flow and keeping us sunny.

    BC Upper low is progged to bulldoze across upper ridge and stall over N Manitoba, reforming Hudson Bay Vortex. At the same time it will interact with a lee cyclone coming up in the SW flow. NAM shows the system become vertically stacked (capturing surface low) and deepen... very similar to previous system as Rob noted. GFS however is more progressive with the system, bowing out the surface trough and quickly cutting off instability to the SE. It therefore also shows less QPF.

    Things to watch:

    1)Where exactly will heavy convective rains associated with strong LLJ and moisture transport set up. At this point I suspect it will be in N Dakota as already suggested.

    2)Where will deformation zone set up (steady precip). The extent to which the surface low becomes captured by upper level energy will have big impact on this.

    3)Will there be a no man's land between the convective complex and deformation zone that get very little rain... will it be YWG and western Winnipeg again??

    4)How much cold air will the vortex draw down from the Hudson Bay region... weekend definitely looks chilly at this point.

  6. Looks like severe storms will devleop over western/central ND and evolve into a large MCS that will bring heavy rain to ND and southern MB Wednesday night. Local amounts of 25-50 mm likely throuhg Thursday morning, but how much rain Winnipeg will get is still uncertain. Ensembles suggest a 50% chance of at least 15 mm, with a 25% chance of 30 mm on the high side, and only 5 mm on the low side. The good sign is that the latest GLB is more progressive on the upper low, with drier but breezy weather Friday.

    Very favourable setup for supercell tornadic storms as they first blow up over western ND late Wednesday.. my target area is between Bismarck and Minot. Any other opinions?

  7. I am going to go a bit further west than Rob for convective initiation. I am going to guess where the inverted trough intersects edge of cap and ... perhaps somewhere between Williston and Dickinson ND. Areas NE of there may have more cloud limiting instability. Tornadoes are possible given good SE low level winds and stronger SW flow at midlevels and up.

    Things should consolidate into larger convective complex as dynamics and LLJ get better organized. I wouldn't be surprised if precip then pivots into S Manitoba (degrading into an area of stratiform rain) lifting out to the NE by late Thursday morning. Main deformation band should setup Northern Manitoba as dry slot punches into the south.

    Linear MCS may try to bow out, splitting off from precip heading towards Manitoba. This line, should it form, may try to curve SE towards the better moisture/ instability thru WC Minnesota ..maybe even in the twin cities?

  8. The PASPC discussion this morning doesn't even mentioned southern Manitoba. Not sure why that is...

  9. I guess they were just focused on today's potential for severe.. while the severe threat appears to be mainly south of the border for later today into tonight.

    I see SPC has gone to a moderate risk of severe now over much of southern ND and northern SD, with early threat of supercell tornadoes over western areas this evening turning into a MCS severe wind event tonight across the rest of the Dakotas.

  10. Can anyone tell me what a "LEWPS" is???

    That is the first time I ever heard of that term in a forecast discussion!!!

  11. Line Echo Wave Pattern...simply stated it's a bow-echo on a larger scale

  12. Convection from NW N Dakota about to enter SW Manitoba.. not sure if it is surface based.

  13. Weakly rotating supercells forming in extreme SE Montana near the N/S Dakota border.

    It looks more likely to me that our local area will miss the highest precip amounts. My *hunch* is that two main areas of precip will split off..

    1) area of convection over eastern Saskatchewan coalescing into region of stratiform rain. This will from deformation band associated with dynamics of large upper low moving across the prairies.

    2) an MCS forming out of the severe, discrete supercells that will affect areas along the N/S Dakota border. I think it will ride the edge of theta e ridge along with smaller disturbance and affect S Minnesota by morning.

    That leaves us with only broad forcing as LLJ moves over us. At this point I do not expect much more than a general area of showers probably between 3 and 5 am. Any thoughts from Rob or others?

  14. Tornado reported near North Portal, SK. Monster supercell!

  15. Rare supercell tornado watch issued for Melita region.

  16. The rain we're about to see in the north and in the south - is it all part of the same system?

  17. Just got in from the Whiteshell.. storms firing up pretty much as expected over western Dakotas. Early tornadic supercells now evolving into a large scale MCS across central Dakotas. Too bad Minot radar is down!

    Agree with Daniel's assessment on the precip area with one maxima moving over western MB, and another mainly along and south of intl border associated with strongest storms. However, strong low/mid level flow and frontal trof should advect a few hours of moderate to possibly heavy rain across RRV overnight into early Thursday, with some embedded thunder. I think Winnipeg can still see 10-20 mm out of this, with 20-40 mm locally especially southern RRV.

  18. Wow! 67 mm rain reported at MB ag site at Pierson, MB in the extreme southwest corner of the province. 44 mm within the past hour alone!

  19. Looks like more storms for eastern MB this afternoon. Front will still be in a position to trigger storms.

    Could be a fairly widespread outbreak if we get CAPE values to where they are expected to be.

  20. Winnipeg missed out on the heaviest rain overnight with about 4-8 mm throughth city.. but general amounts of 20-30 mm across southern and western Red River valley through southwest MB, with up to 74 mm in the extreme southwest at Pierson.

    Thunderstorms with heavy rain occurring early this morning just to the west of Winnipeg with Elm Creek picking up 17 mm past hour. That band of thunderstorms will get very close to the city this morning with some heavy downpours, especially west end.

    Severe weather this afternoon is over RRV and SE MB, but is contigent on this morning cloud clearing out, which may be slow to do in that moist southerly flow ahead of the trough. If we get enough breaks, supercell storms are possible this afternoon especially east of Winnipeg.

  21. Very heavy thunderstorm going through the west side of the city right now!!!

  22. The sky to the west is very dark and lots of cloud to ground lighting!!!

    Winnipeg will get the heavy storms after all!

  23. Line approaching west end of Winnipeg now.. with very heavy rain. Line is training mainly northwest of the city.. look for very heavy rain through NW Winnipeg, Rosser, Grosse Isle, Stonewall areas this morning.

    Elm Creek has picked up almost 40 mm this morning!

  24. Torrnetial rain west Wiinnipeg.. weather station reporting a rainfall rate of 215 mm/hr!

  25. WOW

    It was like a WALL OF WATER here by the Grace Hospital!

  26. 0.8 Km visibility at the airport in RAIN~~~

  27. 15 mm rain past 15 minutes at my site in Charleswood.. starting to ease off now.

  28. Lighting detector on Weather Central is going of the charts with 800 strikes!!!

    Now that was quite the storm!!

  29. WOW! Another wave going through west Winnipeg.. flooding rains, pea size hail.. 405 mm/hr rain rate!!

  30. Up to 55 mm rain now.. 48 mm since 9 am. Peak rainfall rate was 457 mm/hr at 9:41 am. Sump pump can't keep up.. lots of flooded basements through the city I'm sure..

  31. WOW! This is intense! Within minutes the street in front of my house went from nearly dry (only a bit wet from the overnight rain) to completely flooded!

    Flash flooding most definitely!

    And am I correct or incorrect to believe there is the potential for more severe weather later today in the Winnipeg area, granted we get sunshine?

  32. The webcam for North Kildonan is white!!!! ( zero visibility)

    It is a wall of water with this line of storms!!!

  33. Looks like a webcam shot from a mid winter snowstorm!

  34. Chris Windsor Park (formerly St.Vital)10:03 AM, July 09, 2009

    Very decent storm. Steady thunder, torrential rain, my planters are full of water. I sure would have liked to see this one at night. I'll check my neighbor's rain gauge when this is over.

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