Saturday, July 25, 2009

Cool week to end cool month..

After near seasonal temperatures this weekend, another spell of below normal temperatures will be ushered into southern MB Monday, which will continue through the end of the month. High temperatures for the upcoming week are forecast to remain around 20C each day.. a good 5-6 degrees below normal for late July. This will ensure that July will end up cooler than normal in Winnipeg and southern MB.. making it the 8th consecutive month with mean temperatures below normal. Such a streak has happened only twice before in Winnipeg since 1971.. from Nov 1978 to June 1979, and from Oct 1995 to May 1996. Meanwhile, a huge upper ridge building over BC will maintain hot dry conditions over the province with temperatures of 35-40C through the upcoming week.


  1. As far as I'm concerned, I'll take the +20c and enjoy and BC can have the +30c and beyond hellish temps. I wonder how those multi-million dollars houses in the O'gan are fairing with the smell of burned out forest all around? You would think this community of millionaires would have a better fire suppression sytem to protect their investment.

  2. Yeah.. a lot of people are enjoying this summer's weather.. very comfortable for outdoor activities and good sleeping weather. It's like being at the lake without leaving the city.

    But if you like the hot sticky days for hanging out at the pool or beach (or for firing up the BIG storms), this hasn't been the greatest summer for you.

  3. I am lost as to why EC has no warnings on the cells in SE SK atm.

    They look impressive on RADAR, and a friend of mine in the Canora are reports seeing a lowering from the storm off to the NE.

    Also, a severe thunderstorm watch has just been issued for areas of SW Manitoba.

  4. Large hail falling on the Kamsack, SK webcam!

    It's just like that one in Steinbach where you can move it yourself haha, I'm at the helm of the controls.

    ...and warnings in place...only watches...sigh...

  5. See for yourself:

  6. Rob!
    If we did not hit 30.0 C back in June, then we could have made another run for the latest 30.0 recording!!

    What was last year's ???
    Mid August???
    On average how many 30 C + days is Winnipeg supposed to get???????

  7. EC just updated their forecast... with a twist! A rare double-chance in the mix.

  8. Actually, YWG airport officially hit 30.0C on June 18th of this year, our only 30C reading of the summer so far. Last year, YWG airport didn't reach the 30c mark until August 16th (although the Forks hit it 3 times between June 30th and July 5th) On average, YWG airport records eleven 30-degree days between June and August, plus 1 in May and 1 in September. So as you can see, we're way below normal in the heat department. Note that only 3 years ago (2006), YWG had 24 30C days, with 16 in July alone!

  9. Chris - Windsor Park7:34 AM, July 27, 2009

    Looks like yet another week of way below normal temps. Other than today and maybe Wednesday, we won't even crack 20C. I am anxious to see how we rank as far as coldest July's go.
    A little ray of sunshine in this bleak forecast: Mid to late next week, models are showing a warm-up to high 20's - low 30's. How long this lasts or even if it will materialize is a crapshoot. I'll believe it when I see it.
    What do you guys see?

  10. This weather pattern we are in, is very hard to break!
    This constant NW flow is caused MAJOR blocking pattern ( so I'm told)

    This whole summer the models have always tried to show some heat that will make it here but instead we get grazed with one day of "warm" weather before the next upper level low arrives!

    Every source I hear is telling the public that they see a major warm up in August..... but those are the same people that told me July was supposed to be hot!!!

  11. I recall several times hearing David Phillips of EC say that July and August were going to be above seasonal temperatures. He was even put on the spot a couple weeks ago on CBC radio, and his prediction remains that August will have above seasonal temperatures.

    I think flipping a coin is probably the best model for prediction of temperatures these days.

  12. I don't deal with long-range weather forecasts.

    I have a perfectly sound long-range forecasting theory...the weather will be the exact opposite of the forecast. This year we were supposed to be above-normal, and things were below-normal. Same thing happened last summer. With my method, you'll be right every time.

  13. David Phillips shud stick to his Weather Trivia Calendar and quite being EC's blue skies, sunshine & smiles poster boy. He's had the media training and he does some part time acting and so he sounds & looks reasonable there in front of the camera. So I can see why EC pushes him into their spotlight to take the full glare of scrutiny. I can see him at TWN as their in house guru once he retires from E.C. E.C has no real credibility with the public. Canada's government isn't really serious about weather forecasting as evident by the continual cut in resources. TWN is becoming the de-facto source for Canadian weather information/forecasts.

  14. TWN obtains their forecasts from Environment Canada...without Environment Canada...TWN would be there!

  15. David Phillips was on CJOB this morning discussing the lousy weather!

    The exact words out of his mouth "forecasting the temperatures for August is a bit of a CRAPSHOOT!

    Oh by the way... The Weather Network is showing us hitting 35 C in Mid August!!!

  16. It will not hit 35 degrees. That stupid LOW to the east will hold strong until the end of the month. Temperature anomalies for our area are insane showing constant ridging in the west and troughing in the east. It'll take a big push of something to permanently alter our pattern enough to allow us to heat up that much.

    Sorry I'm being a Debbie Downer, but 8 months in a row below normal...Come on! It's statistically likely that we'll be shooting for the 9th month with below normal temperatures.

    David Phillips' forecast is garbage. I can do what he does by simply wetting my finger and sticking it into the wind.

    Pathetic! Anyone seen the WeatherMan with Nicolas Cage?...someone should throw a big gulp at him!

  17. Wow...that's all I can say.

    I kind of agree with the recent post...but it's not really David's fault.

    He is just a spokesperson...he's not the one who actually creates the forecast.

    It's unfortunate that people have a face to blame.

    That's why I could never do TV...people will always criticize you.

    It's just unfortunate that David Phillips was wrong with his July forecast. Yes it has sucked here in terms of warm temperatures, but if you live in would be saying wow...David Phillips was dead-on!

    This whole criticism is area specific...I bet all of these negative responses are coming from areas around Winnipeg & Toronto where the weather has not been that pleasant!

    Anyways, the 12z GFS does show a warmup...and it looks possible that low 30's temperatures may indeed occur starting around Wednesday of next week.

    My fingers are crossed!

  18. Agree with Justin H - Philips' forecast is definitely "on" for BC! June was above normal and July is going out with a BANG. 35C here in Abbotsford (humidex 43 which is unheard of out here), many places hotter, Port Alberni at 39C. Not supposed to "cool off" until next week when it's back down to 29C or so.

  19. 30 C in Vancouver today is very impressive considering that the airport is right next to the water and is subject to cool ocean breeze!

  20. Numerous 40C readings in BC today. Most surprising is the 40C reading in Port Alberni on Vancouver Island.

    Vancouver reached at least 31C. That is impressive, considering the all time record is only 33C.

  21. That 39.7C at Port Alberni is their all time record high.. they may even surpass it tomorrow.

    Port Alberni is in the interior of Vancouver Island.. away from the ocean which is why it can get so hot. Kind of odd having a "Port" in the middle of an island :)

  22. YWG has a July mean of 16.7C as of the 27th. Assuming we stay near that value at month's end, this July would rank as the 5th coolest on record since 1872. (behind 4th place July 1971 at 16.4C, ahead of 5th place July 1883 at 16.8C)

  23. Rob!
    Take a look at the radar this morning!!
    Is that lake effect that I see through the Elie area coming of Lake Manitoba?????

  24. Looks like it.. it's around +5C at 850 mb with a lake temperature around 18C, so it's unstable enough to support lake effect in that NW flow. According to the CWB mesonet, that band has dropped 11 mm of rain near St Eustache, 9 mm near Elie, and 3 mm in Starbuck.

  25. Wow.. the ag-wx site at Woodlands has reported 49 mm of rain under that lake-enhanced rainband, with 20 mm between 9 and 10 am. Seems awfully high, but radar returns did show some strong echoes training over them. Amazing..

  26. Did I read we're reach'n 35C next week and New York hasn't hit 90F. Now thats a record

  27. WOW!
    These little showers are quite fierce with very heavy rain and gusty winds for all about 5 minutes!!

  28. Is anyone getting some small hail this afternoon????

  29. Lots of record highs across southern BC today including a sizzling 35C at Victoria and an even 40.0C at Port Alberni, hottest temperature ever there.. and probably the first 40.0C reading ever officially recorded on Vancouver Island. Even Seattle hit 39C today.. hottest ever there.

    I noticed many of today's records out in BC were previously from 1971.. when Winnipeg was recording its 4th coolest July ever. Gee, can you guess what the upper pattern was that year??!!

  30. I think Vancouver beat its all-time high temperatures record. It is +33.7C as of 6pm local time...WOW! A couple of 40C readings again today in other parts of BC.

    Just to make everyone feel a bit worse, it was +34C in the Yukon today and +30C in Inuvik, 200km north of the arctic circle.

  31. Scott!
    With a "high" of only 16 C forecast on Friday that would probably make that our coolest day in July.
    Might as well end the last day of July with a chilly rain!

  32. Shutting down the weather station for awhile as I take some holidays.. My site will use Gorilla weather from Whyte Ridge for the time being.

  33. VANCOUVER SET AN ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE ON WEDNESDAY TOPPING OUT AT A SIZZLING 33.8, BEATING THE OLD ALL TIME HIGH OF 33.3 SET ON AUGUST 9, 1960. Canadian hot spot on Wednesday, Bella Coola, BC at 41.2, also setting an all time high temperature.

  34. Have fun on your holidays Rob!
    Can you bring back some hot weather with you????


  35. looks like another record breaker in Vancouver today!

    possibly another all-time record?

  36. Chris - Windsor Park8:26 AM, July 31, 2009

    Is anybody else seeing the models backing off significantly from an extended warm-up? I think Scott has it right. Go with the opposite of what is forecast and thats what you'll get.
    Early in the week, models showed a huge warm-up for the latter half of next week (upper 20's, low 30's). TWN was even showing 35-36C for the 2nd week of August. Now, it seems we won't break 30. Thats okay, I can live with 25-30C. Who wants to place bets that by next week, our anticipated heat wave will be all but extinguished and models will show another long stretch of well below normal values. Any takers?
    Sorry for the pessimistic view, but I don't think I'll be able to handle this winter at all if I don't see some decent weather for the rest of the summer. There just seems to be no end in sight.

  37. The advertised highs of the upper 20's/low 30's over the next 10 days may indeed be overdone. The GFS model is doing a poor job this summer while the NAM is dominating. Unfortunately the NAM does not go beyond 84hrs.

    It looks like the hot air will stay Dammed up over BC for the next several days. The Dam does look like it will break and spill some heat into the prairies...but it definitely won't be the high heat temps that were earlier advertised for us. That seemed excessive anyways.

    It's just sad that our upcoming warmer weather may not actually be that warm. If I was doing temps for the next 10 days...I'd say we'd warm to a max of 25 degrees as numerous shortwaves traverse over our area over the next several days. Every storm system acts to push the jet southward thus lowering our projected high temperatures.

    It's actually amazing...I'm done being depressed about our summer. I am actually excited to see how much worse it can get. At this rate I will be not surprised if we had snow in August sometime...especially in the overnight hours. As depressing as that sounds...would you be that surprised?

    This year will likely go down as one of the worst years of all time in terms of below-normal temperatures. On the bright side...we'll have a new year to compare things to.

    If it's cold next year...we'll be like 'well at least it's not as cold as 2009'

    The likelihood of having a year as bad as 2009 or worse is very low...I'd say!

    Here's to hoping for a warmer period. But following past trends...and bad model data...don't hold your breath for a so-called 'heat wave'

    Over and out!

  38. The summer has been wasted anyway. We should have been seeing relatively warm stretches of weather here and there since May! The hottest temperature in May was only 22 or 23. The warmest temperature in June was 30, but that was between two periods of miserable weather. July has seen 28C once maybe. We should have at least 8 or 9 30C days so far, but we only have one, maybe two.

    I am calling this Manitoba's 14 day summer. That coming from the two weeks of really nice weather back in June.

    The models have completely backed off of their heat wave scenario. Now they show us getting into the mid twenties once or twice in the next 10 days. That takes us into mid-August, which could be close to sealing this summer's fate for good. By late August we could be getting close to a permanent switch to fall weather. Snow in imagination required!

    On a slightly more positive note, I am predicting a mild fall and milder than recent winter. I don't know if this winter will be above-normal in terms of temperatures, but I do think it will be warmer than the past two years. Of course those are just my feelings, not based on anything other than my own thoughts. Then again, as we have seen, long-range models don't mean anything anyway.

  39. The El NINO effect couldn't come at a better time after this non summer. See

  40. Thanks Scott for that good news. Looks like the warmest beneficiaries of EL NINO (avg+ 2to+3C) with normal pcpn will be ND and the RRV.

  41. I waiting for the July stats to come in!!!

    I'm sure it is not going to be pretty!!

  42. What a way to end the last day of July!

    A complete WASHOUT!!!!

  43. Chris - Windsor Park4:14 PM, July 31, 2009

    I think i got the 10-20mm of rain forecasted just in the past 5 minutes!

  44. FYI:

    It is 31C in Fort Liard, NWT. With the humidity it feels like 39C.

  45. Hi from Grand Forks...

    Down down here in the states...Grand Forks has been a bit warmer but my early calcuation would have GFK airport avg temp being 65.4 F (or about 18.5C) which would place it about 4th for GFK for coldest July's. 1992 was still the coldest. I did see that International Falls average for July was 58.7 (or 14.8C) which is colder than 1992 for them and this will be their coldest July on record.

    It has been pretty dry down here...just about 1.20 inches of rain this month.

    I am from Kentucky born and raised and down there in places such as Louisville they never hit 90F this month which has never happened in their history of weather records which date back to 1873. WOW

    I know it has been much worse in Winnipeg this month then down here. Hope you get some warmth.

    Personally I moved up from the south to live in the north. I dreamed of living in Sask. but got close. I dislike hot weather terribly and anything about about 25C is too warm for me. I yearn for the winter! But I know I am in the minority.


  46. Dan...

    You probably struck it right this year. If you would have moved to the Yukon or North-West Territories, you would have been cooking in 30C+ heat!

  47. The stats are in and Winnipeg airport recorded there 3rd coldest July on record!


  48. From reading this and other weather blogs there appears to be a subjective model rating process.

    Is there one for commercially provided weather forecasts ?

    To quantify an accuracy rating system based on each Day 1 thru day 14 Hi/Lo Temp/overcast%/wind speed and direction/pcpn. would help many who make costly planning mistakes. Like POP for Pcpn.

    If the accuracy doesn't exceeds 30% the results could be printed in a PINK (the lady doth change her mind )colored font. Brink Pink for 29% to Lavender pink for <10%..

    Or.. can we ask commercial forecasters to place POAW ratings (Probability of Actual Weather) on each day of the forecast?

    Something to think about.

  49. I've often thought about attaching a confidence rating to my forecasts. This would basically be a measurement of how confident I am of my forecast being correct. The ratings could be high, equal chances, and low...or something like that.

    Since commercial forecasts are based almost entirely on models, you can't expect anything consistent beyond day 2 or 3.

  50. Water temp in lake Wpg South basin is 18C today. Aug 1 has been 23C 4 of the last 5 years.

    Does this make for cool days any time we have N or NW winds this month?

  51. I keep watching TWN's 14-day forecast for Winnipeg for when the first above-normal day is supposed to be. First it was the 4th, then the 6th, 7th, and now the 9th...

  52. Chris - Windsor Park10:00 AM, August 02, 2009

    Don't look now anon, no above normal temps until the 11th.