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Storm snowfall forecast through
Wednesday night.
Highest amounts expected
south of US border |
The winter storm that has been pounding Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan will be heading east over the next day or two, but is now expected to impact areas mainly south of the international border. As a result, southern MB will be seeing less snowfall Tuesday through Wednesday as the storm tracks through the Dakotas. It now looks like areas along and south of the Transcanada highway will be seeing about 5 to 10 cm of snow through Wednesday with the highest amounts near the International border. Heavier snowfall is expected across North Dakota and Minnesota where
winter storm watches and warnings are in effect, in anticipation of 15 to 25 cm of snow along with increasing winds and poor visibilities in snow and blowing snow. In the wake of the storm system, colder weather will be flooding into southern Manitoba with temperatures in the minus 20s for the end of the week through the weekend.
Has the ECMWF gone completely off it's rocker??? It is showing 850 mb temperatures of -30 over Southern Manitoba on Monday and Tuesday of next week. Surely it won't be that cold...
ReplyDeleteLooks like models are coming in to agreement that Winnipeg will get at least some snow from this system. 5 cm seems like a reasonable amount. By the way, for anyone wishing for a nice and warm December....the long range is like your worst nightmare come true.
ReplyDeleteOvernight guidance has come in with a little more snow for Winnipeg as wrap around snow from storm system lingers longer through Wednesday into early Thursday. Although the bulk of snow is still expected south of the US border, most models now showing a good 5-10 cm for Winnipeg into Thursday morning, with the potential for 15 cm storm totals. We'll have to see if today's model runs continue this trend but it's possible we may still get a fairly decent snowfall here mainly Wednesday through Wednesday night. FWIW.. snow poll is picking 5-10 cm, with 2-5 cm close behind.
ReplyDeleteIn addition, winds will be picking up Wednesday with gusts to 50 or 60 km/h by afternoon, so that will cause blowing and drifting snow issues into the evening commute. Not a good travel day shaping up Wednesday across Winnipeg and the RRV.
Well it certainly looks better than yesterday for getting some snow! All models actually (and for once) all show around 10cm or so for the city. If it makes anybody feel any better (and I know it does for me) for losing out to North Dakota/Minnesota for the 20th billion time when it comes to storms, its not like they're getting a major dump compared to us. In fact models this morning show them only getting maybe 5-10cm more than us in adjacent areas which isn't too significant IMO. So yes they are still stealing some, but not a lot this time compared to past events! Definitely more optimistic than yesterdays bleak outlook! Still waiting for a big one though and we are due! Hopefully it doesn't happen at a time thats inconvenient to most.
ReplyDeleteWell, E.C's forecast sure does not reflect that. It only only for light snow with amounts of 2 CM tomorrow.
ReplyDelete12Z RGEM has come in with at least 10 cm of snow for Winnipeg now as of midnight Thursday.. continuing trend from last night's model runs showing higher snowfalls Wednesday into Wednesday night on the backside of storm system tracking through Dakotas and northern MN. Colder temperatures Wednesday will be boosting snow:water ratios to 15-20:1 so snowfall amounts of 15 cm or more are possible here by Thursday morning. Increasing winds Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night will cause significant blowing and drifting snow in open areas given the light fluffy nature of the snow. Again, worst of storm still expected stateside, but we'll still see some impact here as well. Expect deteriorating driving conditions Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
ReplyDeleteSnowing at a pretty good clip on the east side of the city now!!
ReplyDeleteRob, do you think it's possible that we could even receive 20 CM here in Winnipeg?
ReplyDeleteModels have been struggling with this system for several days now in terms of impact over southern MB. General idea has been to take heaviest swath of snow mainly south of the border into NW Ontario, but models have struggled with predicting northern extent of snow.. which impacts forecast for Winnipeg/RRV. By this time, models should have a better handle on upstream features, so consistency and confidence should be growing in upcoming model runs.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, latest consensus for Winnipeg is for snow to gradually spread in tonight with a couple cm possible by morning rush hour. Snow continues Wednesday becoming moderate at times, with another 5-8 cm possible by evening rush hour. Snow continues Wednesday night with another 5 cm or so by Thursday morning commute before snow tapers off midday Thursday. All told.. models are now looking at a good 10-15 cm for Winnipeg by Thursday morning with up to 20 cm possible especially south and east of the city. In addition, northerly winds will be increasing Wed afternoon into Wed night with drifting and blowing snow issues. So although we won't get the worst of this storm, it appears we won't totally miss it either.
By the way, snow poll has closed.. 5-10 cm was the top pick at almost 30%. Average poll guess among 91 respondents was 8 cm total snowfall through Wednesday.
Hey Rob, what are the chances of near to blizzard like conditions for Winnipeg/RRV tomorrow night?
ReplyDeleteTrying to forecast this upcoming storm system will give any forecaster grey hairs ;)
ReplyDeleteUpdated EC forecasts for Winnipeg calling for 2-4 cm tonight, followed by another 10 cm Wednesday through Wednesday night.
ReplyDeleteThat is very close to snowfall warning criteria is it not?? Maybe some blowing snow warning tomorrow...
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