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Forecast snowfall amounts from
GEM model through Saturday
showing swath of 10+ cm across
southern Manitoba |
The week will be ending on a mild note across southern MB as temperatures climb towards the freezing mark Friday thanks to a westerly flow of mild Pacific air spreading in from Alberta. The mild temperatures however will be nothing more than a brief tease from Mother Nature, as another blast of Arctic air moves in over the weekend into next week. The deep freeze will be ushered in by a clipper system from Alberta which will track east and spread snow across southern Manitoba Friday night into Saturday morning, with 5-10 cm possible across Winnipeg and the Red River valley and 10-15 cm across the western parklands. The snow will be accompanied by brisk northerly winds gusting to 50 km/h which will send temperatures tumbling into the minus twenties Saturday, along with blowing and drifting snow and wind chills approaching minus 40.. a shocking change from the pleasant conditions Friday. Bitterly cold temperatures will prevail Sunday through New Year's Day with highs only in the minus 20s and lows in the minus 30s, capping off what will be the coldest December in Winnipeg since at least 2000. So enjoy the next couple of days.. another Arctic blast is on the way!
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December 2013 is running some
7C below normal across
southern Manitoba and
northern Plain states |
How cold has it been this December in Winnipeg? Through Christmas, the average temperature this month has been
-20.2C, or about
7C below the normal December average (-13.5C,
1981-2010 average). Since December 4th, only 2 days have been above normal this month, with another frigid spell forecast to end the month. This will likely end up being the coldest December in Winnipeg since at least
2000, when Winnipeg recorded a December mean of -22.0C, its 4th coldest December on record (since 1872) The coldest December on record in Winnipeg was way back in
1879 with a bone chilling mean of -26.0C for the month. That month also featured the coldest temperature ever recorded in Winnipeg with a -47.8C reading on December 24th.
I hope this winter does not drag into April, like last season.
ReplyDeleteCity of Winnipeg
ReplyDelete4:34 PM CST Thursday 26 December 2013
Special weather statement for
City of Winnipeg issued
Significant change in the weather coming Friday night into Saturday.
A low pressure system is forecast to track through Southern Saskatchewan and into North Dakota by Saturday morning. Current guidance is indicating 5-10 cm of snow will fall across Southern Manitoba in a northwest to southeast line from Dauphin to Pinawa. Strong northerly winds of 40 gusting to 60 km/h accompanying this system will create reduced visibilities in blowing snow. The exact track of the low will affect the snowfall amount and strength of the winds and therefore, the potential for localized blizzard conditions.
After the warm up Friday, with highs in the -2 to -5 range, a ridge of high pressure will bring an Arctic air mass of bitterly cold temperatures. Lows Saturday night are expected to fall to near -30 with wind chills near -40.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.
Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.
How is Sunday looking after that clipper? Heading to regina..
ReplyDeleteThe forecast now calls for a low of - 36C on Sunday night into Monday morning for Winnipeg. Brutal.
ReplyDeleteModels still on track for 5-10 cm for Winnipeg beginning Friday night around midnight or overnight then continuing through Saturday morning before tapering off Saturday afternoon. Northerly winds pick up Saturday with falling temperatures through the minus teens into the minus 20s, so blowing and drifting snow will be a concern for Saturday travel. After that.. what can you say.. just cold, as in "why do we live here?" cold. Temps no better than -27C to end off December with lows at or below -35C. Brutal.
ReplyDeleteRob, are there any sings of a more sustained warmup in the long range over the next couple of weeks?
ReplyDelete>> Anonymous said...The forecast now calls for a low of - 36C on Sunday night into Monday morning for Winnipeg. Brutal.
ReplyDeleteActually, that's the low for Sunday morning, which will be similar each night through New Years Day. May even sneak a -40C in there one of those nights.
>> Anonymous said...Rob, are there any sings of a more sustained warmup in the long range over the next couple of weeks?
ReplyDeleteThere are some hopeful signs that the cold snap will ease after New Years day for a few days.. but I don't see anything at this point to suggest a sustained pattern change to milder weather. It could happen, but too tough to say at this point. Note that after the very cold December of 2000 (even colder than this year), January 2001 turned around and was almost a full 10C warmer than December. So it can happen.. let's hope for a similar turnaround this year.
>> Anonymous said...How is Sunday looking after that clipper? Heading to regina..
ReplyDeleteClear but COLD. Temps in the minus 30s to start the day, and only in the mid minus 20s in the afternoon.
Rob what are your thoughts on total snowfall that Brandon and area might receive?is there going to be a lot if wind with this clipper?
ReplyDeleteWow, this is shaping up to be one of our most brutally cold winters in a very long time. What's makes this scary though is the fact the AO is actually positive. I wonder how many people saw this coming, probably nobody. I for sure am one of those who didn't see this coming. But it's only fitting that 2013 goes out the way started...Let's face it 2013 will not go down as year to remember as far as nice weather is concerned. Here's hoping we get rewarded in 2014.
ReplyDelete>> Anonymous said...Rob what are your thoughts on total snowfall that Brandon and area might receive?is there going to be a lot if wind with this clipper?
ReplyDeleteLooks like much of southern MB, including Brandon, will be seeing about 5-10 cm between midnight Friday and noon Saturday. Locally higher amounts possible especially over Riding Mountain Park area with 10+ cm possible. Winds will be picking up out of the north Saturday morning, so there will be be a few hours of dicey conditions with snow and blowing snow across southern MB, especially across the Red River valley where northerly winds will funnel through.
I have lived in Winnipeg all my life. The coldest daytime high that I have ever experienced is -32C. Looking at EC's forecast, a few days next week could get awfully close. Sigh....
ReplyDeleteI was looking at some of the stats for next week, and we could be approaching record cold daytime high on Monday. The record low maximum that day is -28.3C in the year 1898.
ReplyDeleteThen you forget 1996. :-)
ReplyDeleteFeb 1 coldest day. high -41. Wind chill -57. Below -20 for over 17 days I think it was. Awful.
That was awful.
Hey Rob what do you think travel will be like driving into northwestern Ontario (Red Lake) tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteActually the high on Feb 1st 1996 was -35.3C, with a low of -41.8C. But yes, that was the last time we saw highs that cold. The temperature at Winnipeg airport stayed below -30C for 3 straight days that year from Jan 31- Feb 2. By Feb 6th however , it was a balmy +3C and stayed mild for much of the rest of February. Sure hope we can get a nice turnaround after next week as well. I enjoy extreme weather, but extreme cold I could do without.
ReplyDelete>> Anonymous said... Hey Rob what do you think travel will be like driving into northwestern Ontario (Red Lake) tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteNot looking too good, at least through midday Saturday. There'll be a good band of snow across Winnipeg into the Whiteshell and NW Ontario Saturday morning, likely putting down 5-10 cm along with some gusty north winds giving poor visibility until you get into the trees. Red Lake will probably not see as much snow with this system (maybe 2-5 cm), but there'll be some heavier snow to put up with between Winnipeg and Red Lake stretching along the TCH into Dryden, especially through the morning hours. Things will likely be improving in the afternoon as the snow band pushes south but road conditions will likely still be poor due to the snow. Take some extra time if you plan to travel, and be prepared for slippery or snow covered road conditions.
I've plugged in the numbers for Winnipeg's December based on our temperatures so far, and our projected highs and lows for the rest of the month. As of today, we're at a monthly mean of around -19.6C (today's high of -1.8C bumped our average up a bit) Given our forecast temps, it looks like December will end up with a monthly average of around -21C.. good for around 5th or 6th place on the top coldest December list. (since 1872) It will be our coldest December since December 2000 at -22.0C. So believe it or not, it's been worse. :)
ReplyDeleteHey rob, has the amount of snow were expecting tonight still 5-15 cm or has that changed?
ReplyDeleteRadar shows snow moving in fast. Some moderate snow rates in a few hours for Winnipeg.
ReplyDeletesrm... no, we're still expecting 5-15 cm across southern MB including Winnipeg... Lowest amounts near the US border.
ReplyDeleteVisibilities are quite low this morning in the city. I could only imagine how bad the highways are.
ReplyDeleteRob,
ReplyDeleteHow much snow has fallen?
Thanks
Very tough to get an accurate snowfall reading this morning due to extensive blowing and drifting snow out there. I took a few readings around my place and averaged as best I could where snow was undisturbed (open area, no drifting) I got an average of around 8 cm as of 8 am, but ranges from 5 to 10 cm, with much deeper drifts (30 cm or more) Still snowing with heavy drifting and blowing snow. Nasty out there!
ReplyDeleteBy the way, I noticed that the Winnipeg observer was reporting just blowing snow at the airport, no falling snow. That's incorrect. Both radar and outside observations confirm snow is still falling in Winnipeg. He's also calling 1 km visibility but I suspect it's worse than that. (more like 1/2 km or less from what I'm seeing)
ReplyDeleteRob,
ReplyDeleteWhat time today do you think things will lighten up?
Thanks
Radar shows back edge of main snow shield through the southern Interlake area moving south. Snow should be tapering off in Winnipeg around noon or early afternoon, but we'll still have to put up with brisk winds and drifting snow along with plunging temperatures this afternoon.
ReplyDelete0.4km visibility at the Winnipeg airport at 10:00.
ReplyDeleteTough measuring the new snow out there but It looks like about 10 cm accumulation in Southeast Winnipeg.
ReplyDeleteWinds combined with heavy snow band moving through Winnipeg giving blizzard conditions out there with visibility down to 400 metres or less. Heaviest band should be pushing south over the next hour or so, but lighter snow and blowing snow will continue through early afternoon.
ReplyDeleteEC has winter storm warnings for gimli but not here! We've been having blizzard conditions in the hour and all their getting in gimli is some light snow.
ReplyDeleteWinter storm warnings were issued for areas that were expecting the most snow.. a band of 10-15 cm from Dauphin through the southern interlake (including Gimli and Selkirk) into the Whiteshell area. These areas did indeed receive about 15 cm of snow this morning which has since tapered off there. In Winnipeg, slightly less snow was forecast (5-10 cm) but poor visibilities prompted a blowing snow warning. In hindsight, a winter storm warning was probably justified for Winnipeg since it looks like we did get over 10 cm of snow (you need at least 10 cm of snow within 12 hours to issue a winter storm warning) But at this point, it becomes semantics.. blowing snow warning, winter storm warning, snowfall warning, blizzard warning, special weather statement.. all pointing to nasty winter weather for anyone in southern MB today.
ReplyDeleteThanks Rob.
ReplyDeleteRob, I know that you have been asked this before, but could you please tell me again, when there is a special in between the hour observation is that a manned or just an automated weather reading??
ReplyDeleteRob, I know that you have been asked this before, but could you please tell me again, when there is a special in between the hour observation is that a manned or just an automated weather reading??
ReplyDeleteIt is manned, at Winnipeg FSS there is a position that takes care of weather observations, and it is his/her job to keep an eye on the weather. There are several parameters that triger a special, such as a change in visibility, start/stop or changes in intensity of precipitation, certain changes in the ceiling especially when they are near of below 1000 feet.
Hope this helps
>> Anonymous said... Rob, I know that you have been asked this before, but could you please tell me again, when there is a special in between the hour observation is that a manned or just an automated weather reading??
ReplyDeleteFurther to the response above, all observations from YWG airport are manned, both hourly and specials. But much of the raw data comes from the automated weather station (temp, dewpoint, wind, pressure, etc) The human observer merely augments the automated data with visiblity and precip type information. Note also that until recently, EC was in charge of airport weather observers who followed strict guidelines for taking and reporting weather observations. That all changed over the past couple of years with NavCanada taking over airport weather observing duties, and since then, I've noticed a decrease in overall observation quality compared to EC observers.
Virtually impossible to measure snowfall accurately today, but I'm estimating another 5 cm of snow this morning for a storm total of 13 cm here at my place. Fits well with 9 mm of melted precip at the Forks since last evening (only 3 mm melted precip at YWG airport though). Heavy drifting and blowing snow through early afternoon with drifts of 30-40 cm across my driveway. Definitely a good day for the snowblower! Now just clearing and COLD!
ReplyDeleteDo you expect our next above -20 reading to occur before next year?
ReplyDelete>> Anonymous said... Do you expect our next above -20 reading to occur before next year?
ReplyDeleteWe likely won't get above -25C until Jan 2nd or 3rd!
With a high of only - 28 tomorrow I wonder why the forecast low Sunday night under clear skies is at - 31. Probably going to be colder than that.
ReplyDeleteOnly 30 day into this winter - and another 90 days to go ..... She's gonna be a long one this time!
ReplyDeleteRob, what is your current snow depth right now?? The reason I ask is that it seems like my snow piles are as high as they were last year, and we are not even that far into the winter.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, if you hate the cold, I suggest you NOT look at the long range. Not good!
Anonymous.. snow depth at my place is around 26 cm as of this morning, which is exactly the same depth as I recorded last year on this date. But snowdepth varies quite a bit with the heavy drifting from yesterday.. easily double that depth in some drifts. A COCORAHS station in west Winnipeg is recording a snowdepth of 39 cm this morning, after a snowfall of 14.5 cm yesterday. (about 13 cm for me) so you can see that snowdepth varies quite a bit depending on location and exposure. The Winnipeg airport for example has 3 snow depth sensors, which vary from 6 to 14 cm as of this morning.
ReplyDeleteA low of -34.8C at YWG airport this morning. Wasagaming was the provincial cold spot at -39.7C. Roblin close behind at -38.8C.
ReplyDeleteHi Rob,
ReplyDeletedo you think -40 is possible at the airport in this cold spell?
Also I'm curious how cold it got at your place this morning.
Thanks and a happy new year,
Jeff
Jeff.. My low this morning was -34.5C (you can see readings from my station at my main Rob's Obs website)
ReplyDeleteAs for hitting -40C.. there's an outside chance the airport may hit it Tuesday morning, but right now it looks like lows will be around -35C to -38C or so..
Happy New Year to you too.. stay warm!
Hi Rob just a little info in case we weren't sure that it is cold out there. Stay Warm. http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/environment-canada-to-alter-how-it-reports-wind-chill-extreme-cold-1.2478408
ReplyDeleteI really, really hope the 18z GFS temperatures are wrong for next weekend. The 850mb temps are almost off the scale.
ReplyDeleteRob,
ReplyDeleteWeather network is calling for another storm on Friday. What are your thoughts?
Models are showing another clipper passing through southern MB by Friday, although current guidance suggests it won't be as intense as this past Saturday's storm. Early indications are 2-5 cm for Winnipeg, with a brief warmup to seasonal temps Friday ahead of the system before plunging back below normal again for the weekend into next week. We'll keep an eye on this system to see if they trend up with amounts.
ReplyDeleteWow. Already down to -36C in Gimli as of 11 pm. I'm down to -32.4C,with a light southerly wind off the snowpacked fields to my south. That's why southern suburbs are colder than the airport this evening, which is a slightly milder -29.5C thanks to a light southerly flow off the city.
ReplyDeleteLets see if the bottom drops out tonight at YWG. Temps near -40 under the massive ridge of high pressure this morning. Fresh deep snowpack, a light NW flow. Maybe -38C ??
ReplyDeleteStay safe out there everyone. Tonight's updated forecast for Winnipeg is calling for a low of -38C with a windchill of -50. A high of -31C tomorrow. Dangerous Cold!
ReplyDeleteYes, updated forecasts have dropped temps for tonight and tomorrow based on an even colder core dropping down from northern MB tonight. Low of -38C forecast for Winnipeg, but with light NW flow, YWG airport may drop to the -40C mark. RAP actually has YWG dropping to -41C overnight, which looks quite possible. With Arctic ridge right over us tomorrow, not much temperature recovery with highs at or below -30C. What a way to end 2013!
ReplyDeleteBy the way, if Winnipeg does hit -40C tomorrow morning, it would be the first -40C reading here since Feb 5 2007 (-41.7C) It would also be the first -40C recorded in December since 1933! (-41.1C on Dec 28 1933)
ReplyDelete