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CPC 6-10 day outlook does
not look promising for those
looking for mild weather |
The storm system that dropped 15 to 25 cm of snow across the Red River valley and southeastern MB Tuesday into Wednesday has long since moved out of the region, but in its wake, frigid Arctic air is flooding into southern MB as a massive Arctic ridge pushes in from the west. The core of the coldest air is found over Alberta and western Saskatchewan today where temperatures have struggled to get much above the -30C mark this afternoon. This ridge will build into North Dakota over the weekend, maintaining its icy grip over the Prairies. Temperatures in Winnipeg are expected to stay at or below the -20C mark through much of next week, with overnight lows approaching the -30C mark. West to southwest winds of 20 km/h will produce windchills in the minus -30s during the day, and close to -40 at night. Temperatures are expected to moderate a bit for the end of next week as a weak system crosses southern MB, however below normal temperatures are likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Bundle up and hunker down! Mid winter cold has come to town!
- 27 C temperature for grand forks already. They are forecasting a low around -32 C. Impressive.
ReplyDeleteIt's so cold that even lawyers are putting their hands down their own pockets.
ReplyDeleteOh so close to hitting -30 this morning in Winnipeg .Got another shot at it tonight!!
ReplyDeleteBrutal cold out west this morning... -42C at Brooks AB and Val Marie SK. Those are actual temperatures, not windchills. Tonight will be another cold one as ridge settles in across North Dakota. Coldest mins tonight will across northern ND into southern MB where lows will be near or below -30C. There were some pockets of -30C temps over southern MB this morning over southern RRV and along US border, with a repeat tonight.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure that by the end of the upcoming work week, a lot of people will ( including me ) be sick of winter....What's that?? Winter has not even started yet... Oh!
ReplyDeleteQuite interesting how the NAM refuses to put us much below -20C after day 1, day after day. Even last week it didn't like going below -20C for this weekend, showing 10C warmer than the GEM.
ReplyDeleteStrange... look at this wording in Val Marie's (SK) forecast from EC this morning:
ReplyDelete''High minus 22 except minus 17 near the Trans-Canada Highway. ''
Val Marie isn't even close to the Trans Canada...
Anonymous.. yeah, that may look a little odd, but it's because of the public forecast regions that are used by EC. The Val Marie forecast is for a large region that extends over the Cypress Hills through to Maple Creek including the TCH to the Alberta border. It's a very diverse region weatherwise so often there are exceptions noted in the forecast that may not apply to all localities within that region.
ReplyDeleteThat south wind today is just brutally cold. Outdoors for a few minutes, back indoors for the rest of the day!
ReplyDeleteIf the AO goes negative, does this mean the weather will get even colder than this? Is that possible? I'm having a hard time understanding this AO stuff. Is there a Greenland Block present right now?
ReplyDeleteRob, as you said so yourself many times, it's so hard to get an arctic airmass out of Southern Manitoba once they settle in. The models were hinting earlier at push of milder pacific air from the west this upcoming weekend, and that keeps on getting pushed back every model run. Arhhhh......
ReplyDeleteAndy.. What's odd is that the current AO phase is slightly positive, and is forecast to trend more positive over the next week or so. A positive AO usually locks up the Arctic air to the north of us, but this shows how you simply can't tie our weather to one variable. There's a lot more going on that controls our long wave patterns, which makes long range forecasting so complex and generally futile. That's why I don't bother trying..
ReplyDelete>> Rob, as you said so yourself many times, it's so hard to get an arctic airmass out of Southern Manitoba once they settle in. The models were hinting earlier at push of milder pacific air from the west this upcoming weekend, and that keeps on getting pushed back every model run. Arhhhh......
ReplyDeleteYeah, the models keep teasing us with some moderating temperatures in the 7-10 day period, but alas.. like a desert mirage, they vanish as we get closer. :( We have some milder temps out west (Alberta has warmed up nicely after their frigid weekend) but that milder air will have tough time getting to southern MB as clipper systems track to our west.
Eventually our upper pattern relaxes a bit over the weekend into next week, so things should moderate here. The ECWMF is actually giving Winnipeg highs of 0C by next Wednesday which would really be nice. But again.. that's the model world.. we'll see if it actually pans out.
Well, Euro has completely backed off on that wishful 0C for next Wednesday, now going back to -20C temps again. All models show a brief moderation to normal temps Monday, before we go back below normal again next week. Bottom line.. don't believe any big warmups in the long range models unless they're consistent and sustained.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, saw a news item that said a new record low in Antarctica was measured at -94.7C (-135F) back in August 2010, which would surpass the current coldest world temp of -89C at Vostok Antarctica in 1983. However, it was recorded using remote sensing from satellites, not an actual official surface weather station, so I can't see it being accepted as a legitimate world record.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cbc.ca/manitoba/webcam/summerland.jpg
ReplyDeleteCBC has revived another web cam. I don't know what they are doing... I can't find any links on their web site. Fortunately, I had the link saved from before. You can't even find it by searching the CBC site. Of course, their web site was always a mess.
I find it amusing how Winnipeg airport has so far kept dodging -30 C with cloud cover and the right wind direction with this cold snap. Maybe tonight will be the night...
ReplyDeleteHey Rob I see EC is calling for snow on Saturday. Is this a major system or just flurry activity
ReplyDeleteBox134.. Thanks for the update. That's one of my favourite Winnipeg area webcams. Just wish they were reliable staying online.
ReplyDeleteDaryl.. Saturday's snow is from a clipper system tracking through the Dakota with a trough into southern MB. As a first guess, we're probably looking at 2-4 cm at this point.. although I've been burned too many times with these weak systems this year, so possibly 4-8 cm if it tracks close enough? We'll have to keep an eye on it through the week to see if and how the track shifts..
ReplyDeleteRob what are we at for the year for cumulative precip? Is that Winnipeg precipitation graph vs normal accurate on your stats page? It says 403mm
ReplyDeleteHow reliable has the cpc 30 day prediction been?
ReplyDeleteAnonymous.. That precip graph from NCEP has not updated since early October (when we lost the YWG EC site) So you'd have to add precip for Oct, Nov, and Dec to that 403 mm.. which takes it to about 420 mm at the airport. The Winnipeg A CS site (XWG) however seems to undercatch precip especially in the cold months or with light precip events, often half or more of what The Forks station reports. In addition, there's the issue of XWG ignoring hourly amounts of 0.2 mm which adds up over a month. Quite frankly, Winnipeg airport precip stats are becoming less and less reliable these days.
ReplyDeleteThanks Rob. Yeah XWG is reporting about 100mm less than that which seems too low
ReplyDeleteRe. the supposed new record low temperature in Antarctica: apparently the Guinness World Records book won't be accepting it as "coldest place on Earth".
ReplyDeleteDidn't realize it.. but Winnipeg hit their first -30C of the year yesterday morning with a low of -30.5C at YWG airport.
ReplyDeleteWho needs coffee this morning when you could just go for a walk outside...that will wake you up!!
ReplyDeleteDaryl.. Models are backing off a bit on that snow for Saturday for us. Looks like clipper will be a little weaker and tracking a bit further southwest as we get brushed by it.. maybe a dusting to 2 cm, although the NAM still gives us 2-4 cm. Looks like another clipper coming closer to us Sunday into Monday may bring another chance of snow.. perhaps 2-5 cm as a first guess.
ReplyDeleteA low of -36C at Wasagaming this morning and -35C at Roblin. MB cold spots.
ReplyDeleteI just learned that effective as of yesterday with a change in data reporting, EC autostations (like XWG) will no longer strip out hourly 0.2 mm precip readings. That should give more representative precip readings especially with light precip events and snowfall.
ReplyDeleteThe latest GFS is showing a "warm up" to near normal on Monday/ Tuesday. Then the arctic flood gates open again. Sigh....
ReplyDeleteRob thanks for the update
ReplyDeleteRob, I noticed a few times overnight that you were a few degrees colder than the airport. That does not happen to often.
ReplyDeleteWill be interesting to see if Winnipeg airport can nudge above the -20C mark today for the first time in 6 days. If not, we likely will stay below the -20C mark through the weekend. Finally looks like a break on Monday as we get a brief push of milder air from the west.. with high temperatures in the minus single digits. We may get a day or two of these modified temperatures early next week, but then long range outlooks show another blast of Arctic air for mid to late week into next weekend, likely as cold or even colder than the cold snap we're seeing now. GEM-GLB, which has a bit of a cold bias, has an outrageous forecast low of -48C in Winnipeg by next Saturday. That would match Winnipeg's all time record low set way back on Christmas Eve in 1879.. but that seems a tad extreme. Nonetheless, it does hint at the severity of cold expected by late next week. Hopefully, models are overdoing things and things are not as cold as currently suggested.
ReplyDelete-19C as of noon at YWG airport.. first time above -20C since last Friday (Dec 6) Break out the bubbly!
ReplyDelete5 days in a row below -20C.. still nowhere near the 17 straight days in 1996 when Winnipeg was below -20C from Jan 18th though Feb 3rd. That's a record I don't want to break.
Rob, I know long range is not your area of expertise but if you had to take a guess, would you say the period from Christmas day to New Year's will be a cold one?
ReplyDeleteSome of the models are showing a system toward the middle of next week that could give someone in the Northern Plains, to the southern Prairies with some measureable snow. That system would drag down some bitter cold air after!!
ReplyDeletea question for rob or anyone else. why do they not open the skating trails on the red river until January? with two weeks of -22 temperatures surely the river are frozen solid. I was in Winnipeg the first week of march this year and it was still well below 0 and the river looked frozen deep but the trails had already closed. any reason why the season for ice skating on the rivers is only two months. it would seem that the river could handle skaters and such for at least 3 or 4 months a year. what am I missing as a novice to Winnipeg and cold weather.
ReplyDeleteHard to believe but the Red River still is not totally ice covered in the downtown area. From the mouth of the Assiniboine north past the Esplanade Riel up to the CN bridge there is a narrow strip of open water. It has been gradually narrowing over the last few days, so maybe soon the river will be safe for skating.
ReplyDeleteMagnolia_2000: I can comment on the River Trail, at least from the perspective of the Assiniboine River. Flow rates can vary widely from one year to another. This year, the flow rate on the Assiniboine at freeze-up was about 2000 cubic feet per second, which is about 3 times historical norms. Even last week, there were some stretches on the Assiniboine where there was a narrow ribbon of open water flowing in the centre (though it seems to have mostly frozen over with this latest cold snap!). So, we have to wait until the vehicles can safely drive on the ice and flood the surface of the trail with water.
ReplyDeleteLate last February and early last March the Assiniboine rose with the release of water from dams in western Manitoba (in an attempt to mitigate potential spring flooding). This caused water to rise through the ice, making the Assiniboine un-skateable up to and including the Forks. Since the most people (and the machines that keep the trail clear) access the trail from the Assiniboine at the Forks), they had to shut down the trail for the year, even though as you mentioned, the Red was still frozen solid.
Hope that's helpful.
Thanks anonymous for the info on the river skating trails. Goes to show there are other factors in play, not just the temperature.
ReplyDeleteI see that they are opening part of the river trail on the Assiniboine in front of the Forks. Pretty early this year, but not surprising given how cold it's been.
Hey Rob, what are your thoughts on snow for this weekend? On Sunday, EC says a mix of sun and cloud and WN says few flurries 2-4 cm. I'm in the snow business and I hate when there are conflicting forecasts so I thought I would see what you have to say.
ReplyDeleteThanks for your reply. Much appreciated.
Rob, with the upcoming holidays, and a lot of people traveling, do you see any chances of snowstorms in the next week or so?? I'm traveling out of Winnipeg next Friday, and hope things are not stormy that day.
ReplyDeletePembina and bishop grandin webcam is back on robs webcam section on the main page. Then when you click on the webcam section, that one in particular is nowhere to be found...what ???
ReplyDeleteApologies for the lack of posts or replies. Feeling a bit under the weather today.
ReplyDeleteRe: webcam .. I put up the Bishop-Grandin webcam because the CTV webcam has been MIA these past couple of days. However I'm still linking to the CTV webcam on my webcam page so I can monitor when it comes back online.
Jeff.. The lack of mention of snow in ECs forecast for Sunday is because the snow is expected mainly Sunday night into early Monday as a warm front pushes across southern Manitoba. It looks like we could see a couple of centimeters of snow with this feature as it pushes across srn MB, although the main area of snow is expected through the Interlake and central MB. Note also that we'll have increasing south winds Sunday night into Monday, which may give areas of blowing and drifting snow, even without much new snow falling.
Thanks for the reply Rob.
ReplyDeleteOne other note on my main webpage. Due to the new EC warning map which also displays special weather statements now, the special weather statements map is no longer valid. In its place, I've added a link to my weather map page via a 24 hr NAM model image (It's still labelled special weather statements though because I can't find the graphic file to change the title.. :)
ReplyDeleteWeather Journal for December 14th
ReplyDelete"That band of snow I’ve been talking about all week will happen after midnight and be east of the Red River Valley by Saturday morning." - Guess who.
Sorry, couldn't resist. LOL
You were right How much snow expected sunday night into Monday?
ReplyDeleteDaryl.. Model snow estimates for Winnipeg Sunday afternoon into early Monday range from nothing to 6 cm. Given that the best support for snow with this system will be to our north, I suspect the higher amounts will be through the interlake into the Whiteshell area. We'll still see a band of snow moving across Winnipeg beginning in the afternoon and tapering off after midnight. Possibly 2-4 cm for us. I see EC has now added 2 cm of snow in the Sunday forecast for us.
ReplyDeleteThanks Rob for all those updates on the OBS page. Hope you are not under the weather for too long.
ReplyDeleteDon
Do we have an official EC weather station or forecast for the North Pole now that we have a Famous white bearded Citizen and many workers on Canada's newly claimed Territory?
ReplyDeleteYikes! Coldest night of the season so far coming up tonight with forecast lows of -34C in Winnipeg by morning, with models showing surface temperatures of -35 to -40C possible over parts of the RRV. Already down to -27C at YWG airport as of 5 pm. Make sure that block heater works tonight!
ReplyDeleteThen an amazing warmup on Monday as we finally get a westerly push of Pacific air over us, with temperature rising to -4C by afternoon. Too bad it'll be brief. Back to below normal temps by mid week with an even more frigid shot by Saturday.
Temperature is tanking at Winnipeg airport. Windchills have also been colder than - 40 the past few hours. May need a warning if these harsh conditions keep up.
ReplyDeleteWOW. 7C and winds gusting to 102km/h in Lethbridge right now. So that's where all the warmth is!!
ReplyDeleteThis very cold morning is only a few degrees off a record low. Even Rob's backyard has hit -32C so far.
ReplyDelete-35 at the airport this morning has to be a record low value right?
ReplyDeleteTWN is calling for 5-10 on Wed. What is mid week going to look like?
ReplyDeleteLow temp bottoms out at -37.3C at YWG airport this morning, new record low for the day (prev -37.2C in 1879) and coldest December temperature here in 40 years! (-37.8C Dec 31 1973). Wow. And to think just two winters ago, we didn't drop below -30C all winter!
ReplyDeleteThose records from the late 1800's are so hard to beat. Very impressive.
ReplyDeleteIdeal set-up for radiational cooling last night. Low closed off over L Superior, with surface high bottled up over RRV and Interlake regions. Mid level clouds streaming in from the northwest were held at bay all night.
ReplyDeleteHowever, as is typical of these cases, the morning low at the airport is a bit unrepresentative.. with several Mb-Ag Wx stations around Winnipeg and southern RRV around -34/-35 C. -37 to -40 C temperatures were found in the interlake.
To clarify, was the -37.3 C low was recorded at XWG or YWG (since hourly data is still being collected at YWG correct)? XWG (climate station) is even more susceptible to the cold air drainage effect then YWG.
Sometime in the 90s, it is my understanding that the recording station (YWG) was moved to the current, seemingly colder location.. and now with the transfer to XWG, data for the Winnipeg airport is coming from a progressively colder and colder environment.
This would potentially negate warming trends in the long term data, and would affect the occurrence of record minimums. Something to think about when a 100 year record is broken..
Winnipeg weather..
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, the YWG NC-AWOS does not report max/min values, just hourly temperatures, so it's difficult to get a true sense of how much of a cold bias XWG may have compared to YWG. But judging by hourly comparisons, I think you're correct in saying that XWG has a bit of a cold bias particularly in clear cold drainage setups when temps can be 0.5 to 1.0C colder. The coldest hourly temp at YWG was -35.4C, while it was -36.0C at XWG at the same time. During the day, and with a bit of wind, their readings are usually within 0.1 or 0.2C of each other.