After a wintery-like start to the month, things will be improving nicely over southern MB over the next few days with mainly sunny skies and warming temperatures through the weekend into the beginning of next week. Temperatures will climb to the 10C mark Friday, still about 7C below normal, but feeling a lot nicer with sunny skies and light winds. The weekend looks beautiful with sunny skies, light winds and temperatures climbing to seasonal values of 17C by Sunday. Even warmer weather is expected early next week with temperatures climbing into the low 20s for the first time this spring.. a much anticipated warming trend for winter-weary Manitobans.
April 2013 coldest since 1907.. 3rd coldest on record in Winnipeg
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Temperature graph
Winnipeg - April 2013
showing persistent
cold during the month |
April 2013 was the coldest April in over a century in southern Manitoba. The average monthly temperature at Winnipeg airport was a March-like -2.1C, over 6C below normal, and tying
April 1907 as the 3rd coldest April in Winnipeg since records began in 1872. Every day but three were below normal, with a staggering 46 day streak
of below normal temperatures from March 10th to April 25th. The month
featured the latest date ever for Winnipeg to hit the +5C mark (April
24th), and the second latest date to hit +10C (April 26th) Snow cover in Winnipeg, which began back on Nov 10th, did not completely melt until April 26th.. one of the latest snow melts in city history. Luckily, precipitation was fairly normal for the month, and together with a long gradual melt allowed for a reduced flood threat over the Red River valley,
Top 5 coldest Aprils in Winnipeg (since 1872)
1.
1893 ........ -2.9C
2.
1874 ........ -2.7C
3.
2013 ........ -2.1C
1907 ........ -2.1C (tied)
5.
1950 ........ -1.6C
1996 ........ -1.6C (tied)
Getting hammered with some historic May snowfalls to our southeast from Iowa thru SE Minnesota into NW Wisconsin. Some places reporting over a foot of new snow yesterday into today.. setting all time May snowfall records. So we're not the only ones suffering from a cold and snowy start to May.
ReplyDeleteAnd I'm driving to Minneapolis in a few hours. Just can't escape Winter.
ReplyDelete27.8C recorded in Maniwaki, Quebec yesterday! Warmest temperature recorded in Canada this year.
ReplyDeleteDriving east-southeast (and not south) is the way to go if you want to escape winter.
Or west.. southern Alberta and southern BC looking mighty nice over the next week or so. 30C temps forecast for parts of the interior Sunday into early next week.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, they had snow as far south as northwest Arkansas this morning. That's the first time they've ever recorded snow in May anywhere in that state!
how is it going Rob? sorry about my short post on moving to india i was in a huge rush. i have been trying to get on to your blog for a week or 2 but in Mombia india. it was like a oven when i first got here (35 degrees)! its only 32 now still extremely hot compared to winterpeg. is there still snow in winterpeg? if so how much? also i am not going to call myself the weather guy anymore my real name is wilfred bob stevens.
ReplyDeleteWilfred..
ReplyDeleteI'm happy to report our snow is all gone now.. and we have some warmer weather finally returning (although it will still be awhile before we hit Mumbai values!) Enjoy your time in India!
Cold sleety day in Minneapolis today. *sigh*
ReplyDeleteRob, is there any way of telling how the severe weather season will turn out this year? I'm thinking that this year may turn out like 2005 based on the similar late season melt, temperature trends, late season melt, and jet stream position. I did a little bit of an analysis. Let me know what you think....
ReplyDeleteMike.. As I've mentioned before, it's just not possible to predict what kind of severe weather season we may have based on winter and spring trends. Correlations with past years just aren't strong enough to make skillful predictions of the upcoming severe summer season. If you look at our severe summer statistics over the past 20-25 years, they vary wildly year to year and don't really follow any predictable trends. A delayed growing season as we're having this year may tend to shift the severe summer season a couple weeks later than usual, but how active that season will be is impossible to predict this far out.
ReplyDeleteThe main driving forces behind severe summer weather are sufficient moisture (surface moisture and low level humidity), heat and wind shear to develop and sustain strong storms. And those things are difficult if not impossible to predict weeks in advance. Remember, it's the interplay of all those driving forces that will determine how active a season you will have.
Now, if we were confident that we would have a cool summer, or very dry summer, then perhaps we could say the season *may* be less active. But even then, it only takes a couple weeks of hot and humid weather with a favourable jet stream during our peak severe weather season (mid June through mid August) to generate enough severe weather events that would be considered an "active" year.
Bottom line: it may be an active year.. or it may not. Just don't know at this point..
Rob,
ReplyDeleteNAM says that we'll peak at 23.8 on tuesday, GFS has a peak of 22 on tuesday while EURO has a high of only 15 on tuesday with the warmer day monday with 22. witch do you think is more possible? personally i would with GFS.
Box134..
ReplyDeleteTuesday looks just as warm as Monday.. that 15C from the Euro was too cool. I see they are saying 21C now which seems more reasonable. Cold front comes through early Wednesday with a northerly flow of cooler air.
Sizzler in the Fraser Valley of southern BC today.. 30c+ temps with a maximum of 33c in Lilloett. First 30c readings of the year in Canada.
ReplyDelete32.8C in Lillooet, BC today, warmest temperature recorded in Canada this year.
ReplyDeleteI do not understand why the airport observation has been saying mostly cloudy for the past few hours... There's barely a cloud in sight!
ReplyDeleteI've really been wondering about the airport's obs lately.. I've noticed that 'sunny' isn't an obs anymore. Mainly sunny is as sunny as it can get now according to the airport obs..
That observation of "mainly cloudy" is derived from the airport observer reporting 5/8 of the sky covered in cirrus, or a "broken" cloud layer in aviation terms. Weatheroffice decodes any broken cloud layer as "mainly cloudy" no matter what height.
ReplyDeleteTwo issues..
1) That observation of 5/8 of the sky covered by cirrus today is overdone. At the most, the report should be saying 1 or 2/8 cirrus, which would be "mainly sunny".
2) Decoding 5/8 cirrus as "mainly cloudy" is a bit overdone. Cirrus is usually thin, and you can get a lot of sun coming through even with a broken cirrus layer. I would prefer "partly cloudy" (or "partly sunny") for broken cirrus conditions.
Either way, you're right. No way it's mainly cloudy out there! It's a gorgeous sunny warm day!
Rob, do you think we'll reach 25C or 26C today given the current temp of 24C?
ReplyDeleteIt must be a training issue with the cloud today.
ReplyDeleteMETAR CYWG 061800Z 23012G19KT 15SM BKN260 24/03 A3000 RMK CI5 SLP162
Unless something has changed, the value after RMK is the opacity of the cloud, 5/8ths cirrus in this case. We're nowhere near 5/8ths opacity, and not even 5/8ths total coverage as Rob said.
Garth
Garth...
ReplyDeleteIt looks like NC observers don't report "thin broken" or "thin overcast" like EC observers used to. That way, you could report the sky obscured by cloud but not thick enough to form a ceiling. I see the observer went back to reporting 2/8 coverage now.. and lo and behold its "Mainly sunny" !
Not only did Winnipeg hit its first 20c of the year today, it will also hit its first 25c of the year (24.9c at 3 pm). Amazingly, we will have hit our first 25C four days EARLIER than last year (28C on May 10th) That's what I like to see.. a quick recovery after such a slow start!
ReplyDeleteReally Rob?! Very strange, since a thin broken or thin overcast don't constitute a ceiling for VFR flight rules. You'd think NavCanada would care even more than EC, not less.
ReplyDeleteOn another topic, here's today's MODIS image over Manitoba.
http://i.imgur.com/d2YVRnz.jpg
The snow sure dissapeared fast! The western hills, northern Interlake and east of Lake Winnipeg still have some, but otherwise it vanished. Yet the flooding is less than expected - goes to show how big a factor sublimation is, I suppose.
Garth
Garth.. Let's just say I never see "thin" layers reported anymore. If they are allowed to use, they rarely do, if ever. I think it's because they no longer report opacity.. just coverage, but I'm not 100% sure about that.
ReplyDeleteNice Modis image by the way. I like how that last patch of snow is hanging on between Riding Mtn Park and Lake Manitoba, southeast of McCreary where they got 45 cm of snow last Tuesday!
Rob what was the max at robs Obs today? when i go to robs obs it say "safari can't find surver".
ReplyDeleteI herd it was 25 in winterpeg today! not so much winterpeg any more:) more like springapeg! You guys are just 4 degrees short of mombai its 29 right now!
ReplyDeleteBox134... A glorious high of 26.2C at my place today.. with nothing but blue skies and a balmy breeze! Spectacular day! A lot of people outside enjoying the weather today.. no doubt trying to break that extended case of cabin fever :)
ReplyDeleteA high of 25.9C at YWG airport today. Even more impressive was Edmonton's 31.3C this afternoon!
ReplyDeleteOne of the earliest occurences of 30°C in Edmonton on record (had a couple in late April)... And the earliest for the month of May... And second hottest temperature for so early in the year. Impressive indeed Rob.
ReplyDeleteIs there also a potential for thunderstorms on Friday? Given that we are now in May and will be getting into storm season soon...
ReplyDelete