Sunday, May 26, 2013

Unsettled week ahead..

The weather pattern will be getting more unsettled over southern MB this week as an upper ridge of high pressure starts building over eastern North America, while a long wave upper trof sets up over the west. This will set up a storm track across the northern Plains and southern Prairies this week, with periodic weather systems bringing occasional rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms.  The first wave of precipitation is expected this afternoon into tonight over southern MB as a band of showers over North Dakota spreads northeast. Another impulse over the Dakotas will threaten more showers and possibly thunderstorms over southern MB later Monday through Monday night into early Tuesday with locally heavy rain possible. Drier weather is expected midweek before a more potent system developing over the Dakotas brings more showers and thunderstorms later in the week. Overall, not the greatest week if you're looking for a prolonged stretch of sunny warm weather!  But then, this is not unusual for this time of year. On average, June is the wettest month of the year over southern MB, as increasingly warmer and more humid air to our south tries to spread north, and interacts with weather system crossing the Prairies.     

81 comments:

  1. Rob, is there potential for severe weather here in Southern Manitoba and RRV at some point this week with all these disturbances moving through?

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  2. I think the chances of severe weather are slim for us in the RRV this week. Strongest storms that do develop will likely be south of the border where there will be better instability. That's what it looks like at this point anyways..

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  3. A bonus day with no rain for us here in the RRV and SE MB today, with even some hazy sunshine and temps in the low 20s.. a lot better than I thought for today. I guess Mother Nature took pity on all those kiddies at the Teddy Bear picnic today.. :)

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  4. Mike (St.James,Winnipeg)6:16 PM, May 26, 2013

    Rob, are thunderstorms a possibility this week? I'm hoping for some storms that are weak to fairly strong but not severe by any means. Let me know thank's....

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  5. How many times does Rob have to answer the same question? Please post this Rob. You will thank me lol.

    thanks,
    Jeff

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  6. Mike (St.James,Winnipeg)6:40 PM, May 26, 2013

    Jeff are you referring to me? I know I know I'm obsessed, I apologize. Rob, you don't have to answer my question if you don't want to....

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  7. Well I hope this year isn't like last... because it's turning out that way so far: Saskatchewan getting big storms no matter the setup and Manitoba missing our completely.

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  8. Mike (St.James,Winnipeg)8:58 PM, May 26, 2013

    Anonymous... Anything can happen, we are not even into the summer storm season yet and June is typically the time that we start seeing severe weather in Manitoba. Cheer up! We can go from being extremely quiet to a very busy storm season in a matter of weeks. Have a look at my summer outlook if you haven't yet, it should give you some insight on how it may end up this year....

    http://southmbweather.blogspot.ca/2013/05/my-amateur-summer-outlook-for-2013.html

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  9. I know. I hate this pattern thats become of us in the last 2 years, from a storm enthusiasts perspective. You get an upper trof moving in from the west coast and by the time it reaches Manitoba, it either flattens out or zooms around us, giving all the fun weather to places like Saskatchewan, North Dakota and even just north of us. Certainly was the case last year, other then just a couple of good storms (I can only really think of 3 good ones last year, and 2 the year before!)

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  10. Looks like models are coming into a little better agreement for the potential for tstorms over RRV and Winnipeg tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Surface low to our west will draw up slightly warmer and more humid air over RRV, with some slight cooling aloft and modest shear. Degree of instability will depend on how much cloud cover can break up ahead of the low to generate some surface heating into the low to mid 20s.. but at least, the chance is there. After that, not looking like a pleasant end to May wiyh heavy rain possible by the end of the week, followed by much cooler conditions to start June. This spring's been a total write-off.. sure hope summer can make up for it.

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  11. Rob, will the storms here tomorrow if they fire up be non-severe in nature?

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  12. >> Anonymous said...Rob, will the storms here tomorrow if they fire up be non-severe in nature?

    Yes, likely non-severe here in Winnipeg/RRV. Shear and CAPE are modest, so some lightning and heavy downpours with any tstorms, with small hail possible in stronger cells. But overall, probably just a line of showers with embedded thunderstorms.

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  13. Rob, what are the stats regarding temps for the month of June following a colder than normal May?

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  14. What is the reason for the unusually warm weather expected next week along the NWT border with AB and SK? Another ridge?

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  15. Thanks so much Rob-Know more comment moderation!

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  16. stop doing that whoever you are.

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  17. Wow more severe storms in Sask and Alberta this evening. Sounds like a broken record.

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  18. >> Anonymous said...Rob, what are the stats regarding temps for the month of June following a colder than normal May?

    Well, it depends on how cold the May was. Of the top 20 coldest Mays in Winnipeg (average temp of +8.8C or less) 60% were followed by colder than normal Junes, 20% Junes were warmer, and 20% were near normal.

    This May will finish with an average temperature around 10.5c, or about 1C below normal, nowhere near the top 20. If you look at 25 Mays in Winnipeg that averaged between 10-11C, 44% were followed by cooler than normal Junes, 40% were warmer than normal and 16% were near normal. So in other words, no real indication of what June may end up like based on Mays similar to this year.

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  19. Does anyone here notice that the SPC includes us in a slight risk on Thursday? What are your thought's?

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  20. Also got a 2% tornado risk here today apparently. Who would've thought with all this cloud cover.

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  21. Couple of thunderstorm cells popping up around Brandon in the area of partial clearing over SW MB. Band of showers through Winnipeg whould be edging east of the city over the enxt hour or so.. but with all the cloud over us and a southerly flow, I don't see much in the way of sunny breaks devloping for us to get some convection going later today. Looks like any thunderstorm actvity today will bve mainly over SW MB into the southern interlake regions.

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  22. The frequency of thunderstorm busts around here is astonishing.

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  23. Gonna be another one of those years like 2011 and 2012 I guess. Already beginning to look that way. Although a repeat of hot and dry summers like 2011 and 2012 is not likely. Just not that kind of year for nice hot weather. According to latest ensembles June doesn't offer a whole lot of hope either for sustained sunny warm weather and I see that Brett Anderson from Accuweather is calling for below normal temps and above normal precip for June, that must be according to the ECMWF long range which is what accuweather uses. So yet another month of below normal temps to come....When will it ever end

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  24. I don't see us getting to that forecasted high of 21C today unless we see some sunny breaks this afternoon which doesn't appear very likely. It was actually much nicer last night than was it is currently.
    Another well below normal day in was has been a well below normal year.

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  25. Well, just have to have hope. It's been a very slow start, but I'm not going to call this season a bust before it even starts. Things can change quickly, and it only takes a week or two at prime time (mid July) to see some good storms. I just hope we can get some heat!

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  26. Temperatures at EC's Carman station appear to be about 5C off. At 1 pm it's showing 9.5C, while it's 15C at the MB ag-wx site in Carman, and 15-16C across the western RRV.

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  27. Yes, something strange was happening with the Carman (WNK) temps earlier today, lasting for several hours.

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  28. Well maybe we'll get a downpour in the next hour... at least in the north part of the city. Sad that that's as close as we can get to storm activity.

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  29. Folks, patience. Even the beastly years (05 and 07) only got into full gear mid to late June. Heck, summer is still almost a month away. If this continues well into July, then go for it!

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  30. A couple drops here in Charleswood earlier this evening.. that's about it. Still waiting for that first thunderstorm of the year. Perhaps a better chance Thursday with some elevated warm frontal storms spreading up from the Dakotas..

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  31. Honestly, when I used to post on an Ontario storms forum, everyone there whinged about how many "busts" there were as well. Storm watchers are an impatient brood. :P

    But seriously, it's only May. And even if this year is slow like 2011 and '12, there'll be good years in the future. Maybe I'm a bit more sanguine about things because I've been living in a cool, temperate climate (England) for the last two years and *any* kind of storm season when I move back to Winnipeg in early June will be a massive improvement. (I've seen one single flash of lightning in England in the last two years. :P)

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  32. After all yesterday was almost normal 19.9 C at the airport.

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  33. It is going to be a hot and muggy end of week in Southern Ontario/Southern Quebec. Let's see if they can break the 40C humidex mark.

    With the huge amount of rain received recently, it is possible I think.

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  34. Sorry that you think we're impatient Evan but the last 2 years have just been so disappointing around here so you start to loose hope and think that this is the way it's going to be from now on.

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  35. Whoa... Montreal with lows above 20C until Saturday! 23C is the forecasted low for Friday morning.

    Very impressive for May!

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  36. Check out the Winnipeg TAF - Light Snow????

    TAF CYWG 292338Z 3000/3024 02012KT P6SM BKN020 BKN040 TEMPO 3000/3009
    SCT020 BKN040
    FM300900 04008KT P6SM SCT040
    FM301200 04012KT P6SM SCT030 BKN060
    BECMG 3013/3015 06012G22KT
    FM301800 07020G30KT P6SM -SHRA SCT020 BKN070
    BECMG 3019/3021 07025G35KT
    FM302200 08025G35KT 6SM -SN BKN020 OVC040
    RMK NXT FCST BY 300600Z=

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  37. The TAF has been amended - no more snow.

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  38. Significant weather and Woodlands radar is down again. Coincidence but I've noticed over the years it tends to fail just when you need it the most.

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  39. Yeah, not sure what the issue is with Woodlands radar. They've been doing some scheduled maintenance on it this week, but it should have been up today. Will let you know if I hear anything more..

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  40. Evidently, Woodlands has some "overloading" issue that needs to be resolved. Tech will be out today to attempt repairs, but images may or may not be available until replacement parts are in tomorrow. Hopefully, he can get it going at least partially today..

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  41. I'm surprised they don't have extra parts there at all times just to be prepared. That would be horrible if it had to break down and have no radar on the biggest storm event of the year with tornadoes.

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  42. So does anybody know when and if the rain is going to start. I told all my guys not to bother coming in as the rains were forecasted to start overnight, now its sometime this morning and now no radar to give you an idea. It does feel humid.

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  43. Judging from the CBC's sat/rad loop, probably now. The airport is also reporting some showers too.

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  44. Looks like the radar is back up. Heavier rain should start up pretty soon

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  45. A dewpoint of 21.9C right now in London, Ontario...

    Highest this year in the country.

    Pretty impressive humidity for late May.

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  46. Re: Woodlands radar

    Turns out it's a power supply issue that keeps overloading and tripping the circuit for the radar. New power supply expected tomorrow, but until then.. intermittent radar images with no radar images likely tonight.

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  47. Rob, do you think we'll see embedded thunderstorms tonight here in Winnipeg?

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  48. There was never much instability forecast. At least someone unstable showed up....

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  49. I'm thinking his CAPE is through the roof. Needs lots of CIN to prevent an EF5 from blowing his house apart.

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  50. This is really stupid. I guess these low lifes have nothing better to do.

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  51. Don't bother feeding the trolls, guys - it's all just about getting attention (even if it's negative). Ignore them and Rob will delete the comments and possibly reinstate comment moderation shortly.

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  52. Don't even comment on comments like that. It's what they want and not worth it.

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  53. Back to the weather then!

    19mm of rain in Altona as of 4:13 this afternoon.

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  54. Thanks Derek.. Looks like a bit of a break for you, but more convection firing up south of the border.

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  55. How accurate is the 4km NSSL WRF simulated radar? I have been looking at it lately. It shows storms moving in from the southeast....

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  56. Rob, what's the latest info on tonight's weather? Thunderstorm potential at all?

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  57. Mike.. we have some thunderstorms developing south of the US border over northern North Dakota. These may push into southern RRV tonight but confidence is lower that they'll make it as far north as Winnipeg. But the potential is there for some elevated tstorms overnight into early morning over Winnipeg. We'll see..

    By the way, 17 mm at my place as of 9 pm.. we're in a bit of a break now but more showers over southern RRV should be pushing in later this evening into the overnight hours. Bulk of it however may be slipping by to our southwest based on latest radar trends.

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  58. Rainfall warning extended a bit southward to the PLP area. Doesn't include Winnipeg though.

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  59. As usual we may miss out on the good stuff. Oh well, there's always next time, but it just amazes me how long we've been without a storm. I've lived here for long enough to realise that this extremely long period without storms is not normal. I mean, no storm since last August, 9 months ago!

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  60. Looks like Woodlands radar has packed it in for the night.. hopefully they can get it back up tomorrow.

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  61. Rob. Is EC using dual polarized Doppler like down south? I read that they just completed their nationwide upgrade in the US.

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  62. No, only 1 EC radar in Canada has been upgraded to dual pol... King City radar near Toronto (which also serves as a research radar station) McGill radar in Montreal also has dual pol, but that's mainly a university research radar.

    The plan is to upgrade all of EC's radars to dual pol over the next few years, but I haven't heard when that may start, or what timetable is planned. But it has been recognized as a priority, along with modernizing our radar network in general.

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  63. Rob, I've noticed that temps by midweek next week will be in the mid to upper twenties in a line roughly from Edmonton to Thompson. Is there any hope for a nice warmup for us later next week?

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  64. South end of Winnipeg up to 40 mm of rain since yesterday.. generally 20-30 mm elsewhere in the city. 27 mm at my place so far and still coming down.

    Generally 25-50 mm across the RRV past 24 hours with a couple reports up to 60 mm over the SW valley along the Pembina escarpment.

    Woodlands radar is still N/A.. hopefully it will be repaired as quickly as possible today.

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  65. Hallelujah, the radar is back... at least for now.

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  66. This is the problem with anonymous posts

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  67. There has to be some sorta filter for this kind of thing

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  68. I support comment moderation to get rid of the idiot.

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  69. Sorry folks.. but it's obvious that this blog will require comment moderation from now on. I tried to disable it in the hopes that these juvenile trolls would find somewhere else to go, but alas, they keep coming back.. like any pest that is left to fester without control.

    So.. comment moderation is back on, indefinitely. I realize that diminishes the utility of this blog in rapidly changing situations, but unlike these trolls, I just don't have enough time on my hands to constantly monitor this site. Thanks for your understanding, and I'll try to post legitimate comments about the weather as soon as I can.

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  70. I'm up to 35 mm here in Charleswood as of 1 pm since rain started yesterday morning..

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  71. storm totals of 42.5 mm from JJ in St Vital, and 44.6 mm from Matt D in south Winnipeg.

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  72. Rob, please don't let the idiots who post trash get you down. Your blog is truly appreciated by 99.99%of us and its a shame these morons have to try to ruin something valued by others.I'd love to have their posts traced and a knock on the door by the police. Maybe that would put the necessary fear into them needed to stop wasting everyones time.

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  73. Rob, I see that some much warmer temps are expected by midweek roughly in a line from Edmonton to Thompson. Is there any hope for mid to upper twenties type temps for us here in Southern Manitoba later next week?

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  74. We have the first 40C+ humidexes in Canada this year.

    Ottawa (40), Gatineau (41) and Huntingdon, Quebec (40)

    Shawinigan, Quebec with a dewpoint of 22.4C right now, a new highest in 2013.

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  75. Completely understand Rob. I was opposed at moderation at first, but it's clear that the harassing is just getting our of hand. I'm fine with it now.

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  76. @Mark

    In a perfect world. But sadly, it's probably not going to happen.

    Back to more-weather related stuff, Hamilton Ave's two famous puddles have appeared again. They've got so much water that they're approaching the sidewalk!

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  77. An interesting evening again down in central Oklahoma with a Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch in place.

    Also interesting, the description in the convective outlook that there is "a very high threat of giant hail" - I've never seen that particular "giant" wording before.

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  78. What's the normal for May, Rob?

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  79. 50mm in River Park South

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  80. I have 54 MM of rain in La sale!

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  81. It turns the winner in regards to humidex in Canada was Gatineau, Quebec at 41. That's the highest recorded anywhere in the country this year.

    It might be while before anyone challenges that. :(

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