A slow moving low pressure system over southwest Saskatchewan is bringing an extensive area of snow across the southern Prairies from the Rockies into southeast SK. This area of snow will be spreading across SW Manitoba this evening and into the Red River valley through the evening and into midnight. Snow will become heavy at times overnight and into early Monday, with 10-15 cm of snow possible by Monday morning south and west of Winnipeg. Snow will continue Monday across southern MB before tapering off Monday night into early Tuesday. Snowfall warnings are in effect for all areas south and west of Winnipeg including Brandon, Portage La Prairie, Carman, Morden, Morris, Emerson, and Steinbach where storm totals of 15 to 25 cm are possible by Tuesday morning. For Winnipeg, snow is expected to move in by midnight and increase in intensity overnight. About 2-5 cm of snow is possible by the morning commute, so give yourself extra time for the drive in Monday morning. Roads will be getting snow-covered and slippery, especially outside the city. Snow will continue Monday, moderate to heavy at times, with another 5-10 cm likely by the evening commute. So expect a slow commute home as well. Snow will begin to taper off Monday night into Tuesday morning, with another 2 to 5 cm possible before it ends. Storm snowfall totals of 10-15 cm are possible for Winnipeg between midnight tonight and Tuesday morning, with a risk of higher amounts if we get some stronger bands setting up over us. Snowfall warnings may be expanded to include Winnipeg if the storm tracks a little further north than currently forecast. Stay tuned on this developing winter storm system.. (Note: Winnipeg was added to snowfall warning on 5 am Monday morning update)
Thanks for the update. The models sure have been wishy-washy on this one. Even John Sauder wouldn't commit to a forecast last Friday.
ReplyDeleteRob do you think we'll get 40cm of snow in Winnipeg as such as the NAM is showing? Or would 20cm at most sound more realistic?
ReplyDeleteMike.. NAM is indicating about 25-30 cm for Winnipeg.. 40 cm doesn't seem likely, unless we got under a slow moving convective band that dumped on the city for several hours. I suppose it "could" happen, but chances seem remote.
ReplyDeleteNAM is definitely the most aggressive in snowfall amounts for YWG and northern RRV, taking heavier snow shield further north than most other models, which generally have Winnipeg in the 10-15 cm range. 20 cm on the high end would be more realistic for Winnipeg IMO..
Cocorahs observer reported 9 cm in Morden as of a couple hours ago. Clearly 20 cm will be an easy target down there if that's true..
ReplyDeleteHad a report of 3 inches in Neche ND right along the border with Gretna... at 630 am. 2 inches in Pembina.
ReplyDeleteThe dry air from the east has been killing snow in the red river valley itself down here...just an inch at NWS office at 6 am....
Rob
ReplyDeleteHow long will this system keep moving north until it marches on back south?
Cocorahs observer at Elkhorn (west of Brandon) reports only 1.6 inches of new snow. However also 3.02 inches of total liquid precipitation. Not sure what to make of that.
ReplyDelete3 cm new snow at my place as of 730 am. Snow has temporarily stopped here as we get a sucker hole right over the city.. with radar showing heavy snow falling just southwest of the city. Would expect things to fill in again shortly..
ReplyDeleteDid not expect this dry slot to develop over the city within the large swath of snow. Mesoscale feature that is impossible to predict even an hour ahead of time. Looks like dry hole is starting to fill in again to our southeast, so we should start snowing again here in the city within the next half hour or so. Heaviest snow still expected mainly south and west of Winnipeg..
ReplyDeleteSo far it looks like a deep upper trough for next week bringing below normal temps yet again. At this rate we'll have snow on the ground well into April. :(
ReplyDeleteHi Rob,
ReplyDeleteWith this dry slot over the city and the heaviest snow to the south and west, do you think we will get 10 cm today?
Thanks
Jeff.. Latest radar image shows heavier echoes starting to develop over Winnipeg. I still think we can get our 10 cm here by evening.
ReplyDeleteThanks Rob.
ReplyDeleteWell, our dry slot has been replaced by a heavy snow band right over the city. Big flakes, low vsby, probably 2-3 cm/hr snowfall rates under band..
ReplyDelete3 cm new snow past 40 minutes here at my place. Very fluffy snow with large flakes indicative of some convective banding. Still falling heavily.
ReplyDeleteSome snow reports as of 8 am this morning from COOLTAP (EC volunteer climate obs network).
ReplyDeleteMiami....... 23 cm
Carman ..... 16 cm
Winkler .... 10 cm
Impressive!
5 cm new snow past hour at my place under that heavy band. 8 cm storm total so far. Still snowing but not as heavy..
ReplyDeleteHeavier snow bands setting up southwest of the city again. Carman-Sanford areas must be getting smoked!
ReplyDeleteWow that dry slot over the city came in right around the busiest time of morning. Couldn't have been at a better time.
ReplyDeleteAnother dry slot near the east of city. Snow has stopped again in the NE part of the city.
ReplyDeleteCarman here, yes we are getting tonnes of snow, client just came in and and she had to walk through drifts up to her knees
ReplyDeleteDon't think we got as much snow as you so far here in River Park South Rob. Averaged at between 6-7 cm at my place.
ReplyDeleteJJ
Thanks for the report from Carman.. Looks like you guys are in the sweet spot of the storm, with the heavier bands regenerating mainly southwest of Winnipeg. Snow has stopped here in SW Winnipeg again, after a nice heavy band this morning. Strange storm for Winnipeg as we get dry slot intrusions from the east interrupting our snowfall.
ReplyDeleteno snow in Steinbach, except for a dusting overnite
ReplyDeleteAt this point one has to wonder if the storm is over for the city! That band just to our south and west is just consistently battering the area and not budging much!
ReplyDeleteOnly about 3 cm in Island Lakes in southeast Winnipeg
ReplyDeleteThere we go, we're back in action.
ReplyDeleteRob,
ReplyDeleteI've noticed some very nice temps in store for the weekend especially Sunday. Could that be the beginning of the melt or is it just gonna be a brief warmup?
I just heard 30 CM of snow in Morris on CJOB radio
ReplyDeleteRe: 30 cm in Morris. I believe it. They've been under heavy bands almost all day.
ReplyDeleteI'm up to 10 cm as of 4 pm... and it's been falling steadily since. Should be up to 15 or so through this evening...
11 cm as of 530 pm at my place. Still snowing lightly. Snow depth now 50 cm.
ReplyDelete10 cm at my place as of 6 pm, snow depth 45 cm.
ReplyDeleteJJ
6 inches at my house in East Grand Forks MN co-worker about 20 miles west of Grand Forks about 10 or so.... then 10-15 Devils Lake-Langdon-Walhalla areas...
ReplyDelete13 cm at my place as of 9 pm. Still snowing lightly.
ReplyDeleteTotal snowfall of 9 cm in Island Lakes in Southeast Winnipeg. Measured at 10 PM.
ReplyDelete30+cm (possibly up to 40cm) in Carman. Its crazy out there!
ReplyDeleteNOAA's map of new snow since yesterday (or click my name).
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/Upper_Midwest/ruc_snow_precip_24hr/201303/ruc_snow_precip_24hr_2013030505_Upper_Midwest.jpg
I'm up to 14 cm as of 7 am in River Park South. 2.5 cm fell through the night
ReplyDeleteJJ
Cocorahs observer at Warren, MN (just east of Grand Forks) also reports 6 inches of new snow, but only 0.11 inches water equivalent.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the report JJ..
ReplyDeleteI measured another 6 cm of snow since last evening, for a storm total of 19 cm here in Charleswood as of 730 am. I took several measurements, and took the more conservative amounts because there are places where it's even more. Snow depth is now 55 cm at my place, which is the deepest snow cover since I moved here in 1998.. and is likely the deepest snow cover in Winnipeg since the infamous winter/spring of 1997. Snow banks are getting crazy here.
Even crazier to our southwest. Miami MB had 50 cm yesterday, and probably picked up another 10 last night. This was a doozy of a storm...
From EC COOLTAP climate network: 56 cm storm total from Miami, MB. Widespread 30-40+ cm over southern and western RRV.
ReplyDeleteImpressive. The city really dodged a bullet this time around. Next time, we might not be as lucky.
ReplyDeleteLooks like a general 15 cm for Winnipeg.. with up to 20 cm in my end of town. So snow poll winner goes to the 5 respondents who picked 15-20 cm, with honorable mention to the 10-15 cm crowd. Well done! Most popular pick was 10-15 cm, followed closely by 5-10 cm..
ReplyDeleteA lot better than that "sunny" forecast from the GEM model just 2 days prior to the storm. Epic fail on that model so close to such a major event.
Now CBC is reporting 56 cm of snow fell in Miama, MB.
ReplyDeleteHi Rob....I know the RFC in Chanhassen MN would love more Manitoba/Sask snow and precip data. I saw a mention for EC Cooltap what is this and is this something perhaps NWS could view or get password for??
ReplyDeleteYes...about water equiv from the snowfall many observers have a hard time with that and thus some reports are in error. We try to catch and correct if possible before RFC gets them. That warren reports seems off...thinking 14 to 1 ratio for the most part.
Thanks
Dan
dan.riddle@noaa.gov
Dan..
ReplyDeleteCOOLTAP is EC's official network of volunteer climate observers (like NWS' coop network) temperature and/or precip data are entered via a web interface, usually once or twice a day. Obs are considered official observations and entered into our climate database. A COOLTAP summary bulletin is issued twice a day, under the header CSCN22 CWEG for Prairie data, CWTO for Ontario data. Not sure if NWS has access to those bulletin headers. Let me know if you don't, and I'll see if there's another way to access that data.
BTW, just took a snow core sample this morning from my backyard... 50 cm snowpack (20") melted down to 168 mm liquid (6.6"). Sample taken using official EC snowcore tube.