Here we go again... another winter storm to test the patience and driving skills of winter weary Manitobans. This next storm system will be tracking from Montana through the Dakotas today into Monday, bringing another wave of snow to southern Manitoba. Snow is expected to spread into SW Manitoba this morning moving into Winnipeg and the Red River valley this afternoon and evening. Snow is expected to intensify tonight with around 10 cm likely in Winnipeg by Monday morning, and 15 to 25 cm possible over portions of SW Manitoba and the Interlake regions where
snowfall warnings are currently in place. As the system pushes east Monday, strong northerly winds gusting to 60 or 70 km/h on the backside of the storm will develop Monday morning, producing poor visibilities in blowing and drifting snow especially through the Red River valley. In fact, blizzard conditions are possible outside Winnipeg Monday morning into Monday afternoon. This will make for difficult travel conditions Monday for motorists.. so be advised to allow plenty of time to get to your destination Monday, or consider re-scheduling travel plans if possible especially if you're travelling outside the city. Consult
MB highways website for updated information on highway conditions and closures. Note that winter storm warnings have also been posted for much of
North Dakota and NW Minnesota due to this storm system. This system will be clearing out of southern MB Monday evening, with dry but unseasonably cold weather for the balance of the week.
Stay on top of current conditions with Robs' Obs radar page, and webcam directory. In addition, get updated information on this storm system by clicking on "comments" section below..
UPDATE: Snowfall warning extended into Red River valley including Winnipeg. 10-15 cm of snow forecast tonight into Monday morning.
UPDATE: 9:20 pm Sunday: Snowfall warning has been upgraded to
BLIZZARD warning for southern and western RRV including Portage La Prairie, Carman, Morris, Morden, Emerson, and Steinbach. Blizzard conditions expected to develop Monday morning as strong northerly winds gusting to 60 km/h move in. Blizzard conditions expected to persist much of the day before improving from the west Monday evening. The strong winds and fresh snowfall will combine to produce considerable blowing and drifting snow on rural highways, and travel will likely not be recommended for areas outside the Perimeter, with local highway closures possible.
Storm Totals as of Monday evening..
Winnipeg ............... 17 cm (video from WFP)
Winnipeg Charleswood ... 16 cm
Brandon ................ 13 cm
Oakbank ................ 14 cm
Pinawa ................. 11 cm
Indian Bay ............. 12 cm
St Labre ............... 16 cm
Schanzenfield .......... 13 cm
Carman ................. 14 cm
Portage la Prairie...... 17 cm
Landmark ............... 17 cm
Steinbach .............. 14 cm
Ste Anne ............... 19 cm
Morris ................. 11 cm
Emerson ................ 14 cm
Morden ................. 11 cm
Well, at least it's cold with interesting weather now, instead of just the nasty cold.
ReplyDeleteLight snow has spread into SW Manitoba this morning, but the heavier snow is still over southern SK and eastern Montana. Watch for that area to spread into southern MB today, reaching Winnipeg/RRV by this evening. Models converging to heaviest snowfall amounts to fall from SE SK into western MB highlands/western Interlake where 15-25 cm is possible by Monday afternoon. Lesser amounts of snow of around 10 cm noted over Winnipeg/RRV however snow will be compounded by winds Monday. Note also that Winnipeg could see higher amounts as 700 mb low tracks right over RRV overnight into Monday morning with sharp inverted trof over us. Potential is there for this type of setup to give Winnipeg/RRV more snow than models are suggesting.
ReplyDeleteLet's hope it's not a big surprise when we wake up tomorrow morning! These inverted troughs can be nasty sometimes.
ReplyDeleteMy blog entry posted a year ago today at noon: "Let it be duly noted that on March 17th 2012 I was outside enjoying a glorious day wearing shorts, t-shirt and sandals.. in WINNIPEG!
ReplyDeleteNow, where were we again? :)
>> These inverted troughs can be nasty sometimes.
ReplyDeleteagreed.. especially when accompanied by good upper support and some elevated instability. Current radar loop showing some good snow rates over eastern Montana associated with upper low which will be tracking across RRV overnight into Monday morning.
Is woodlands radar working?
ReplyDeleteYes it is.. sort of. It's on reduced power so limited products, including no Doppler. Intermittent outages possible. They're looking into new parts this week.
ReplyDeleteRob,
ReplyDeleteDo you think 20+CM is possible for Winnipeg with this storm?
20+ cm is not expected for Winnipeg, but it can't be ruled out. All model guidance is giving around 7-10 mm water equivalent for Winnipeg with this event, which would translate to 10-15 cm for the city given 15:1 snow:water ratios. The wild card is where these heavier bands will set up tonight, which may or may not hit Winnipeg. You could be seeing 2-3 cm/hr snow rates under those bands, which could boost localized amounts to 20+ cm in the RRV. But I still don't have enough confidence to say Winnipeg will get under those bands, but they will be close. Regardless, the morning commute will be messy, and things will only get worse Monday as the winds pick up with heavy drifting snow as well as poor visibilities in blowing snow.
ReplyDeleteRob I know flood forecasts usually factor in "normal precipitation" in the flood outlook. Since the last update on Feb 28th are we much above normal or near normal for March precip? I guess this snow event will definitely make us above normal?
ReplyDeleteAnonymous..
ReplyDeleteOther than our snowstorm of March 4th that dropped about 15 cm of snow on the city (with much heaver amounts of 30-50 cm southwest of here), we haven't seen much precip this month (a couple clippers gave some minor snows to our southwest).
Normal March precip is about 22 mm of melted rain and snow, so depending on where you are in the Red River valley, you're running a bit below normal precip this month north of Winnipeg, and above normal south. I would say that most of the valley to our south, which is critical for flooding potential, is running above normal precip since the 28th outlook.
Hi there,I'm a faithful user of your weather website and Kudos for all the great information on there,I do have a question though...I've been having trouble viewing the Woodlands radar(http://aweathermoment.tumblr.com/radar-viewer )
ReplyDeleteas well as the western Manitoba radar...it just keeps loading and showing words on the radar screen such as "shaking","extracting" and such.
I'm using Firefox 19.0.2 or the latest version and I have no ad ons or extensions that would maybe disable the radar in any way...do you have any suggestions? or you having trouble with the stream by any chance?...
Thanks again for a great site!!!
As an armchair observer, I'd be getting more nervous about flooding in southwest Manitoba this spring, depending on additional precipitation and the speed of the melt. Minor to moderate flooding was forecast for the area in the original outlook on the 28th.
ReplyDeleteWith 25-50 cm over a good portion of the area on March 4th, and existing heavy snow cover in southeast SK, as well as ongoing below normal temperatures (not much melting going on yet), and a decent shot of snow over the next 24 hours, I'd imagine the area could be a bit vulnerable to any further significant precipitation, particularly if there is a quick thaw. The one saving grace could be the below normal soil moisture content in a good chunk of the southern prairies.
Sojourning Soul..
ReplyDeleteThere's currently a problem accessing Woodlands radar using the radar viewer from A Weather Moment (possibly due to the Woodlands radar issues). However, western MB radar is working OK. Just hit the "Load" button (under loop length) when you select Foxwarren radar, and ask for the 1.0 km cappi scan (snow rate)
Thanks for the reply Rob!...got the Foxwarren one working now and will wait for the Woodlands radar to come back on line..in the meantime will use IE for viewing EC radar!...cheers!!...gassing up the snowblowers for the onslaught thats approaching...stay safe all!
ReplyDeleteWinnipeg has been upgraded to snowfall warning now
ReplyDeleteIs it a little strange that the extreme southeast corner of the province is not under a warning? Sprague's forecast is for 10-15 cm while it's 7-14 cm in Winnipeg. Something doesn't add up. (not trying to bash anyone, just find it strange)
ReplyDeleteYeah, that does seem a bit odd. The amounts in that SE corner should be lower if no warning is in effect.
ReplyDeleteAlso odd that YWG airport is reporting freezing rain as of 8 pm (just changed to ice pellets). No above or even near freezing layer noted on progged soundings. Just light snow at my place.
Looking at radar upstream.. two areas of moderate to heavy snow observed, one over SE SK into the Riding Mtn area, and another over central ND. Both areas moving to the east northeast, with a bit of a dry slot between them. Woodlands radar starting to fill in over the RRV. We'll see if areas of heaviest snow bypass Winnipeg to the north and south, or precip fills in between them and gives everyone a good snow tonight.
Seeing some more moderate snow here now in Windsor Park. Im at almost 3.5CM already in the last 2 hours.
ReplyDeleteEC has changed the snowfall warning to blizzard warning now for areas west and south of winnipeg.
ReplyDeleteThere's something about Mondays... This is the third snowstorm in a row to hit us on a Monday: the Louis Riel Day blizzard, that March 4th storm and now this.
ReplyDeleteYeah, Mondays are starting to become a little scary and unwanted.....lol
ReplyDeleteWell there ya go. The southeast now has a warning too.
ReplyDeleteAbout the light freezing rain earlier, I believe I recieved some of it at my place Ice buildup on my van and some of the streets were quite slick. So it probably wasn't a problem with reporting.
ReplyDeleteLight snow and light ice pellets (very small) at my place. About 2 cm so far. As noted, snowfall warnings extended to southeast MB, and blizzard warnings issued for RRV outside Winnipeg for Monday.
ReplyDeleteHave received 13CM at my place in Windsor Park as of 5:00AM this morning with more snow falling.
ReplyDelete11 cm at my place in River Park South as of 6:40 am
ReplyDelete13 cm in Charleswood as of 730 am... 58 cm snow depth. Still snowing lightly. Snow is light and fluffy.. probably 15-20:1 stuff. Will make it easier to blow around when those winds pick up..
ReplyDeleteMiami Cocorahs observer now reporting total 44 inches / 112 cm snow depth!
ReplyDeleteI think that Miami Cocorahs snow depth is actually his running snow total. I've noticed it's never gone down all winter, and keeps going up exactly the amount of snow that falls. Most sites in southern MB are in the 50-75 cm range for snow depth (20-30")
ReplyDeleteHi Rob,
ReplyDeleteIs the snow basically done for the day besides the blowing snow? EC still says 5 cm today.
thanks!
Good catch on the Miami Cocorahs observer Rob. It is a running total.
ReplyDeleteAnyone know when the winds will start to drop off?
ReplyDeletePicked up another 3 cm of snow this morning for a storm total of 16 cm at my place.. with mainly blowing and drifting snow this afternoon. Snow depth is still at 58 cm.. which is the deepest snow cover I've had here since I moved to Winnipeg in 1998. Snow banks of 4-5 feet along my driveway.
ReplyDeleteDaryl...
ReplyDeleteWinds will be strong and gusty through early this evening, then should start diminishing to about 30 km/h after 9 pm or so and 20 km/h after midnight. Click on the SpotWx forecasts graphs on my home webpage (under the Winnipeg forecast graphic) to get an idea of wind trends over the next 12-48 hrs.
Depth 56 cm in my yard.. I've only been measuring since 2009, so although it's the deepest I've measured I don't have as long a record as you Rob. Drifts getting close to 90 cm.
ReplyDeleteJJ
Thanks for the reports JJ.. always appreciate your data. And everyone else's for that matter too. We can always use more snowfall obs!
ReplyDeleteBy the way, after today's snow, my seasonal snowfall since Oct 1st is up to 159 cm, about 50 cm above average (110 cm), and double last year's winter total (80 cm)
Forecast must have been a bust for western Manitoba? According to the EC summary, only 10 cm fell in Wasagaming and 14 cm in Dauphin. Most forecasts and models called for at least 20 cm there.
ReplyDeleteYeah, looks like it was a general 10-20 cm for most places. There could have been higher amounts in the Riding Mtns, but haven't heard of any reports..
ReplyDeleteRob you know how on EC's weather page they display daily historical information at the bottom of the forecast for a specific location? Is there any way you can view that daily historical information for any day? I'm interested in the daily normal max and min temperatures for a specific day or range of days.
ReplyDeleteHi Rob,
ReplyDeleteTell me this is a mistake. WN says 5-10 cm on Saturday?
Seriously!
Thanks
Hi Rob,
ReplyDeleteWhat is the web address on EC to see the monthly data? I am trying to see the daily amounts for the snow. Only link I can find doesn't post the snow amounts.
I used to have the link but computer crashed and starting over.
Thanks
Jeff..
ReplyDeleteRe: 5-10 cm forecast for Saturday. I think WN is basing that forecast on the GFS model, which is the only model at this point indicating that much snow for Winnipeg Saturday. Euro and GEM show little or nothing right now. Models are showing a strong storm system tracking through the central Plains over the weekend, with an inverted trof into the Dakotas. GFS is most aggressive with amounts along that trough into southern MB. GFS has not a good track record lately (recall it was advertising 4 days of snow for us later this week) so at this point, I wouldn't put a lot of stock into that forecast until I saw some better agreement from the GEM and Euro.
Anonymous..
ReplyDeleteRe: climate data
You can try this link to access "almanac" data for Winnipeg airport for a specific day. It will show record and normal temps for any day of the year, specific to that reporting site.
http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/almanac_e.html?timeframe=4&Prov=MB&StationID=3698&Year=2001&Month=3&Day=19
You can access almanac data for any climate station in Canada on the climate online site by selecting "almanac" under "data interval".
Unfortunately, the link above only goes to 2008 for Winnipeg airport, at which time they switched to the AWOS station which is considered a "new" station in the data archives (even through it's at the same spot). Climate data access is a bit of a mess now for Winnipeg with all the recent changes to the observing site and equipment.
Jeff..
ReplyDeleteOn my main home page, in the menu bar select STATS>>CLIMATE DATA>>YWG A DAILY for Winnipeg airport monthly stats. It defaults to January 2013, but you can change it to any month you want. That station doesn't give snowfall amounts in cm, but melted water equivalent values in mm. You can select CHARLESWOOD under that CLIMATE DATA link to access actual snow amounts from my station.
ReplyDeleteHi Rob,
Sorry but when I click on your name I get this:
"The Blogger Profile you requested cannot be displayed. Many Blogger users have not yet elected to publicly share their Profile.
If you're a Blogger user, we encourage you to enable access to your Profile."
I'm assuming it is my new windows 8 computer.
thanks
Hi Rob,
ReplyDeleteI figured it out another way.
thanks