 |
5 day total precip from GLB-GEM
March 23-28 2013 showing generally
dry weather over southern MB |
Pleasant late winter weather is on tap for Winnipeg and the Red River valley over the next week, as a blocking ridge of high pressure keeps weather systems away from southern Manitoba. This means that no significant precipitation is expected over the RRV through the end of the month, which is welcome news for those growing increasingly concerned about our deep snowpack and delayed snowmelt. Temperatures will continue below normal through mid week, with daily highs still below freezing through Wednesday or Thursday but with generally sunny weather. It's possible we may finally climb above the freezing mark by next weekend, which would be the first time since
January 10th that Winnipeg has seen a temperature above 0C. (Today will mark Winnipeg's
72nd straight day below freezing) Since 1872, there's been only one March where the temperature stayed below freezing all month. That was way back in
1899 during Winnipeg's coldest March on record (monthly mean of -16.1c) As it stands now, March 2013 is averaging around -12C for the month, about 6C below normal (
and a whopping 14C colder than March 2012), in what will likely be the coldest March in Winnipeg since at least 2002 (-11.7C)
Mean monthly temperature comparison - March 2013 (left) vs March 2012 (right)
The above maps show the incredible difference between this March (left) and March 2012 (right). In 2012 an exceptionally large area of anomalously warm temperatures was found over the central US into central and eastern Canada (including southern MB) which experienced its warmest March on record. In contrast, March 2013 has experienced anomalously cold weather in generally the same area. See weather historian Chris Burt's blog entry for more details on the major flip between this March and last year.
EC's forecast low of -17°C seems quite low.. I suppose it's possible, but most forecasts and models point towards something between -5 and -10°C.
ReplyDeleteAny idea what's wrong with the Doppler radars in MB Rob?
ReplyDeleteBoth radars have been taken down for repairs. They're being kept offline unless significant precipitation is expected, at which time they have the option to put them back online. Woodlands is fixed and should be back online tomorrow, while Foxwarren (western MB) may take a few more days to repair.
ReplyDeleteNice to hear that Rob. Too bad they don't issue outage bulletins like our neighbours to the South.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the info.
Hi Rob,
ReplyDeleteRob, do you think EC's forecast low tonight of -19C is quite low considering last night's -17C forecasted low was a major flop?
Yikes! What kind of guidance are they looking at to come up with -19 C tonight!
ReplyDeleteRob, I was taking a look at the latest GFS run and shows what looks like a significant system around April 3. Do you think it is too early at this point to pay attention to what the GFS is showing?
ReplyDeleteHey Rob, you just broke through the 0C barrier! That's the first time since when? Airport still at -3C.
ReplyDeleteI see EC has adjusted it's forecasted low tonight from -19C to -10C...that's seems more realistic.
ReplyDeleteYeah, -10C seems more reasonable. Might drop a couple more degrees at the airport if the clouds break up, but -19C was a bit of a stretch.
ReplyDeleteGFS showing significant system for April 3rd? Unless there's buy on from the Euro and GGEM, I'm not going to be too concerned at this point. GFS has been crying wolf way too often recently. That being said, I see both the GGEM and the Euro do show something brewing in the Central Plains, so it will be something to watch over the next few days. (I don't even want to think about a possible April 1997 scenario!!)
And yes, got above 0C at Robs Obs today! First time since Feb 27th at my place (+0.2C) Bit of a spike between 3-4 pm today, otherwise it was generally below freezing. Officially hasn't gone above freezing at the airport since Jan 10th. That's my first temperature above 0C this month. Last March, I had 25 such days. (all the Marches from now on will hate March 2012, the way we always talk so fondly about it... :)
This winter is like a houseguest that just never leaves.
ReplyDeleteWell, the -7C low is a lot better than -19C. The dewpoint last night stayed exactly as numerous models had forecast, around -9 to -10C.
ReplyDelete>> This winter is like a houseguest that just never leaves.
ReplyDeleteIf it's any consolation, much of the country is in the same boat this year.
But yeah, getting really tired of the snow. Haven't seen bare ground since Nov 9th.. going into our 6th straight month with snow on the ground. Way too long..
Just looking through Cocorahs sites in southern MB for total snow depth, and found another location (Melita) where the observer is reporting a running total instead of the actual measured depth. Just in case any of you are looking as well, as Rob had previously found the same problem for the Miami observer.
ReplyDeleteStill looks like a slow thaw for the next 2 weeks, however all that sunshine in the public forecast is likely too optimistic.
ReplyDeleteIs this latewarm up starting to resemble the 79? late spring following 2 years of near record wet 1977 And dry 1978?
ReplyDeleteWell, looks like another frustrating month is on the way as far temps are concerned. Those hoping for Spring like me will have to be patient awhile longer because it's looking like April will be below normal as well now. We will sure remember the 2013 Winter for one thing, that is the the winter that never ends
ReplyDeleteI remember 2 weeks ago when it was forecasted that this blocking pattern to the north which is responsible for the prolonged winter was too break at month's end, now it's not expected to weaken until mid April and what's it gonna be when that time arrives, now we don't expect this pattern to break until May. It's deja vu all over again. Remember 2009, it was colder than normal until September when summer finally showed up.
ReplyDeleteIt kinda seems like EC is anxious to bring Spring too us. Seems to me they've been forecasting plus temps for the long range for about week now and yet we are still waiting for those milder temps. And I agree, all those sunny days in their long range is far too optimistic and even the forecasted temps of plus 5.
ReplyDeleteWow....low of -20C again tonight...And now I see the highs have been adjusted for Sunday and Monday to more realistic numbers which makes one wonder of the possibility that snow will still be on the ground to start May.
ReplyDeletePast history would support April being cooler than normal after a cold March. Of the top 20 coldest Marches in Winnipeg, 18 (90%) were followed by colder than normal Aprils, which makes sense as a delayed snowmelt would make it more difficult for warm air to surface in April. Only 2 of the top 20 coldest Marches bucked the trend with warmer than normal Aprils... 1955 and 1913 when snowpacks vanished early in April. So it looks like odds are against us for a quick transition to warm temps in April. unfortunately.
ReplyDeleteHopefully mother nature proves this bit of statistical analysis wrong this year...
Has anyone seen this new weather site? It's pretty cool!
ReplyDeletehttp://forecast.io/
Thanks Leon. Good site. New competition for SpotWx! lol
ReplyDeletePut the marker over the middle of Hudson Bay and it gives you current conditions, without any reference to where the data is from. That's a pet peeve of mine, but otherwise a neat site.
I guess accurate weather would also be nice. It's saying -5C for Winnipeg 'right now', but the airport is -7C and The Forks is -4C. The current RH also doesn't line up with either station, now or recently. Wonder where the data is coming from.
ReplyDeleteYou got me going now Leon.
ReplyDeleteI chose a location on forecast.io where there can be no confusion - Churchill.
Actual vis = 0.2 km. Forecast.io says it's 9 miles. Actual winds = 18 km/h. Forecast.io says 8 km/h. Temperature is correct however.
I checked some other remote locations with only 1 weather station, and none have the correct current conditions (and it's more than just a rounding error).
There's the same problem on many iPhone/iPad apps. Strange.
Interesting how the GFS has a slow drip on the precip tap, a little every day.
ReplyDeleteHad a look at that forecast.io site, and also can't figure out the observed weather. Both the current conditions on the main page and the metar data on their 'data sources' graphs don't match reality. I assume their 'bias corrected' temperature is using those temps as a source, so the bias correction will also be wrong. The various graphs also have undefined units so you often can't tell what they are.
ReplyDeleteAs mentioned, the current conditions don't identify a source, and even have weather elements which don't exist at the selected station (like visibility when the station doesn't report it), so I'm guessing it's simply a modeled value and not actual conditions.
Sleek site, but not much use when the data is wrong.
0 at Rob's and at the Forks. -5 at the airport. What a difference.
ReplyDeleteYeah, strange how the airport rose to -4°C then fell to -5°C and has stalled out since. Perhaps has something to do with the wind because that -4°C was when the wind was southerly (from the city). Now it's NW...
ReplyDeleteAnyone had a look at yesterday's MB flood forecast? As with the first one, the % of normal snow, and water equivalent maps (fig 6a and 6b) look strange. Nearest water content to Wpg is only 47mm?! Only 50mm near Emerson?! Meanwhile we know WPG has a lot more (at least double). The Emerson volunteers are reporting about 115mm water content.
ReplyDeleteThey have Emerson at only 68% of normal snow, it jumps to 140 % around Altona, then down to 52% at Morden, 49% near Miami, 55% near Carman. I was just down there, and they have more snow than I can remember for ages, and it's consistent across the land.
According to EC Climate normals, the average snow depth for March in Morden is 13 cm (15cm for Feb). They currently have about 65 cm, more than 5X the normal, yet the map shows only 52% of normal for that area?! What gives? The water content, 80mm, looks better but still is way too low.
Grand Forks shows 85% of normal, dips to 35% just a few miles east, jumps to 413% a bit further east! Then down again to 33% by Upper Red Lake. Must have been some very strange isolated convective snow storms in the area! Me thinks quality control is lacking.
Many other locations also make no sense. Too bad they took down the previous flood forecast already (it's supposed to be archived, but dissapeared). Our tax dollars at work.
The %of normal map shows over 100% around Winnipeg which looks fine, but yes the water equivalent is way too low. It seems the two maps were made completely independently of each other, by different people, using different data sources. Sometimes the % of normal looks good but water content is off, other times it's the other way around
ReplyDeleteThey didn't bother to validate one against the other.
Where does the Weather Network take their data because they are show 0C in Winnipeg and EC is showing -4C.
ReplyDeleteMust be the Forks. They are 0C, close to buildings and a right next to a gravel parking lot.
ReplyDeleteThe CMC ensemble still looks bleak for the next 2 weeks, stuggling to reach 0 still into April 12.
ReplyDeleteHopefully things will be better by the summer and the snow cover is gone... Frustrating being in these never-ending same old patterns that just seemingly go on and on for ages. 9 consecutive colder than normal months in 2009, ~ 15 consecutive warm months in 2012.. now what, 15 consecutive colder months?
ReplyDeleteSome perspective.
ReplyDelete1971-2000 Climate Norms at Winnipeg:
Normal snow depth at end of March: 7 cm
Today's snow depth at XWG (similar location to climate site): 43.1 cm
6 times the normal for this time of year!! It's also more than 2 times the highest normal winter snow depth of 20 cm (which occurs in Feb), even after all the settling and some melting this month! Crazy.
Nice SE flow off of NW Minnesota trees bumping us up past freezing.. much colder in the western RRV with Portage at -6 C.
ReplyDeleteDaniel
Looking at Accuweathers long range between April 5 and 8 they are calling for well in excess of 20cm of snow. I hope their wrong
ReplyDeleteHigh of +2.3c today at YWG airport... first day above 0C at the aiport since Jan 10, a span of 76 straight days below freezing. It also prevents us from matching the 1899 record of being the only March that Failed to go above freezing. We should squeeze in another one Friday, and possibly Saturday before we get into another shot of colder air by Saturday evening.
ReplyDeleteAs for Apr 5-8, I wouldn't be too concerned just yet... AW uses the GFS for long range forecast, and the GFS hasn't been too reliable lately.
FYI...
ReplyDeleteMy weather station is not updating due to software issues. Will try to resolve over next day or two.
Wow seeing that big frigid arctic air mass coming south on the ECMWF next week is ugly. Looks like a model image of the middle of winter almost. Let's pray it stays to our north!
ReplyDeleteNice actually feeling the heat from the sun again.. Lots of 5's, 6's and 7's in the south end this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteYou are right, but as always the airport is only 1C.
ReplyDeleteMust be a cold front comming through. Wind gusts from the North have suddenly really increased.
ReplyDeleteA couple of CF-5s doing nite circuits just ahead of some snow shower activity this late evening! Glad those boys got their qualifications/nite tickets punched so we can all get back to sleep!
ReplyDeleteYeah, and it's also snowing at decent clip right now....when will it ever end
ReplyDeleteActually got 2 cm at my place overnight in south end.. Less than the amount of snow that melted yesterday however thankfully.
ReplyDeleteJJ
1 cm at my place in Charleswood.. snowpack down to 40 cm now.
ReplyDeleteBelow normal temps continue this week, and then some hopeful signs that we may be turning the corner next week into mid April. AO index, which has been persistently and abnormally negative for much of March, is finally trending upwards and actually progged to go positive by mid April. This would mean a greater frequency of milder Pacific airmasses coming across the southern Prairies, and less arctic airmass incursions. Result will be a more sustained period of melting temperatures starting next week, with a quicker melt of the snowpack, provided we don't get any surprise snowstorms before then. Keep in mind that average high temperatures in Winnipeg in early April are +5C, rising to +10C by mid April, and 14C by the end of April. That of course is due to a loss of snow cover normally by this time. Let's hope models aren't being fooled by climatology.
My 40 cm snowpack on March 31st is the deepest snow cover for this late in the year since I moved here in 1998. Even 1997 had less snow on the ground at this time (25 cm), until that massive April 4-7th blizzard dumped another 45 cm of snow. Last comparable year that was this white at this time of year was 2009 when I had 30 cm snowpack on April 1st. Snow cover was gone by April 13th that year.
How much snow did we get this month?
ReplyDelete36 cm at my place, due to two main storms.. 19 cm on the 4th, and 16 cm on the 18th. Little or no snow after the 18th.
ReplyDeleteThat puts my seasonal snowfall since Oct 1st up to 160 cm, a good 50 cm above Winnipeg airport normals.
ReplyDelete