September 2012 will enter the record books as the 2nd driest September ever recorded in Winnipeg since records began in 1872. The monthly total of only 4.0 mm was less than 5% of normal for September (average = 52 mm) and was second driest only to September 1948 at 1.3 mm. The dry weather has persisted for 6 weeks now, with the last appreciable rainfall back on August 15th when 9 mm was recorded at YWG airport. The dry weather comes on the heels of a dry summer that saw only about half our normal rainfall. This has left soil moisture conditions bone dry, and significant rainfall of 50 mm or more is desperately needed to replenish soil moisture levels. September was Winnipeg's 4th consecutive drier than normal month, with rainfall deficit now standing at 153 mm since June 1st.
Top 5 driest Septembers on record (Winnipeg) - since 1872
1. 1948 ..... 1.3 mm
2. 2012 ..... 4.0 mm
3. 1938 ..... 6.1 mm
4. 1897 ..... 8.6 mm
5. 1976 ..... 9.9 mm
September 2012 also finished slightly above normal thanks to some warm weather at month's end that boosted the monthly average to 12.6C, or about 0.3C above normal. That extends the monthly above normal streak to an unprecedented 15 straight months in Winnipeg, going back to June 2011.
18Z NAM has an interesting outlook for Thursday across RRV and SE MB. They take an intensifying low over the Dakotas tracking into NW Ontario, with heavy precip on the NW flank of the low over RRV and SE MB. With the colder air in place, they show potential for a significant snowfall, or a mix of rain and wet snow on the order of 30 to 60 mm. (NAM showing a wildly exaggerated 57 cm snowfall total for Steinbach if precip was all snow) Now at this point, NAM seems to be an outlier with this solution as most other models track main area of precip just to the south and east of MB over northern MN into nrn Ontario.. but it bears watching.ReplyDelete
I love this blog. Since I've found it recently I've been very satisfied with the info provided. Thank you. Is there another one like this or website that isn't gov't run that you'd recommend? I'm just an average joe but I've really been vocal (in my social circle) about the lack of rain in SM since late July. I am surprised that only today multiple brush fires were burning, that being said the wind definitely played a role though. I thought this would have been the case in late Aug or Sept., not releated to yesterday's explosion - though the dry conditions didn't help. I simcerely hope it rains buckets soon..I pray for this in the next 48 hrs though it will be cooler. Also, I checked other comments and no one mentions that these so-called "meteorologists" or my favorite "weather spacialists" lol in the media rarely or never acknowledge how desperate the conditions are in SM. I suspect they do this (by that I mean that they don't) because it's not "sexy" to mention it. It's really mindboggling. I don't usually comment so I'll finish by saying thanks for this blog! Great work! Just one more thing..what is NAM?ReplyDelete
Hi there.. thanks for your comments. Glad that I can provide some helpful info for you.. that's the whole reason I run this blog.. to give more detailed info than you get from the usual weather sources. Weather is a lot more complex and involved than just simplifying it to a little sunshine icon and a temperature. That's where this blog can provide extra info.. not only from myself, but from everyone who contributes.ReplyDelete
Anyways, I'll always try to answer any questions along the way if I can. The NAM is an acronym for North American Mesoscale model, the main weather model that the National Weather Service (NWS) uses to make their forecasts. It's often looked at by Canadian forecasters for a "second opinion" on the expected weather.
Running through my statistics now, and if you use the 1981-2010 means instead of the 71-00 means, we were actually 0.3C below normal this month (which is the stat I've been using). I think we can safely say that we've moved back towards a seasonal weather pattern.ReplyDelete
EC is still using the 1971-2000 normals, so I was going with those values. But as of January 2013, I will be using 1981-2010 normals for temps and precip, regardless if EC switches over by then or not.ReplyDelete