Thursday, October 18, 2012
Another soaking rainfall over southern MB.. more rain and wind today
A strong low pressure system over northern Minnesota brought another soaking rain over southern Manitoba Wednesday into last night, with amounts of 15 to 40 mm recorded in the past 24 hours. Amounts were heaviest along the western RRV with amounts of 30 to 40 mm recorded from Portage through Carman to Morden. Lesser amounts fell in Winnipeg with about 15 mm through midnight. More rain is likely today as another batch of showers moves in this morning with 5 to 10 mm possible by evening, along with increasing northerly winds gusting to 70 km/h at times this afternoon into this evening. The rain has brought some much needed moisture to southern MB, after an exceptionally dry September that saw only 4 mm fall all month in Winnipeg. Rainfall this month is now up to 36 mm at the airport as of this morning, and 50 mm at the Forks. Normal October precipitation is 36 mm, so this month will be the first month since May that has seen above normal precipitation in Winnipeg. Things are expected to dry out for the weekend into early next week, but long range guidance is hinting at the possibility of a strong storm system moving across the northern Dakotas by the end of next week bringing another round of significant precipitation over southern MB, with a soaking rain possibly changing to snow. Stay tuned..
Posted by rob at 6:54 AM
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Hey Rob, I wanted to ask you about our storm system for Wednesday...ReplyDelete
Some models such as the GFS is hinting at some thunderstorms for Thursday with some severe, along with temperatures near 17C for Winnipeg. MLCAPE over 1,000, SBCAPE at 856 J/Kg LI's below -3.4.
ML CINH at -33 or near 0 J/Kg and SBCINH at -100 J/kg.
(Click on my name for a look at spotweather charts on this situation)
Rob what are the odds of this occurring with the dynamic colorado low forecast for Wednesday,if temperatures can get into the teens? Would Thunderstorms be a possibility with a dynamic system, as you have mentioned it to me before...
Could you let me know? Thank's
I take that back, the models just changed to a more reasonable outlook for Wednesday. Though I was surprised by the GFS's conclusion this morning, on the thunderstorms for Wednesaday. Like the NAM's 5 foot snow prediction last week.ReplyDelete
What is with TWN's 8-14 day? Those are absolutely brutal low temps.ReplyDelete
-18? Could be a long winter.
See todays Dr Jeff Masters Blog for his take on NOAA s DJF winter forcast relased tofday.Delete
About TWN's cold forecast.. I don't think that's an error!! GFS is showing temperatures in the minus teens too. Geez, that's just insane!...ReplyDelete
Temps that cold unlikely unless we get a good shot of snow, and skies clear with an Arctic ridge pushing in. GFS is most aggressive at this point with the storm system late next week, and the cold air behind it. GFS would have a good soaking rain developing for us late Wednesday changing to snow Thursday with accumulations likely, followed by the deep freeze. Euro is weaker and more progressive with this system, but does hint at stronger system by the weekend. So as you can see, considerable uncertainty in what appears to be an unsettled pattern setting up for next week, with possible snow by the end of the week. Hopefully, models are wrong.. still too early for snow for me..ReplyDelete
I'm lucky to escape the soggy weather in Winnipeg and southern Manitoba as I am taking a vacation in the San Joaquin county in California, where I plan to attend my grandpa's birthday this weekend. However by the time I returned to Winnipeg, I may have to cope with the unsettled weather later next week.ReplyDelete
I just had a quick look at the GFS Model, it's predicting an insane amount of snow for Thursday (50cm upwards)along with 14mm of ice pellets and rain up to 30mm. Followed by a cooldown for Friday and Saturday like the one you guys were talking about. I like the GFS today it's taken on thunderstorms, calm weather, and of course this conclusion. I think this model is going to obviously be the last one we pick from for our conclusion. It cannot make up it's mind!ReplyDelete
Yeah, the GFS is the odd man out at this point going for what would be a historic October blizzard over southern MB/RRV Thursday night into Friday of next week (Oct 25-26th). Wind and precip amounts are off the scale, and border on unbelievable for this time of year. GGEM and Euro are much weaker and more progressive on this system bringing a shot of rain in the unsettled SW upper flow pattern. I'm just going to shrug and look at the GFS in bewildered fascination, but can't take it seriously at this point.. (GFS.. Greatly Fictitious Solution, or Giant Fall Storm?) On the other hand, it can't be totally discounted, and we'll just have to see how the models trend with this thing over the next few days. Certainly bears watching..ReplyDelete
This link gives a good idea of how far apart GEM and GFS are concerning next Friday.. (or click on my name for direct link)ReplyDelete
Wow the difference is astonishing between the two.. You'd think it was a completely different week.ReplyDelete
Agreed! It will be interesting to see what model becomes right. Calm weather (GEM) or the active one (GFS)?ReplyDelete
GFS weaker and more progressive on late week storm, bringing glancing blow to SE MB with greater impact over NW Ontario. GEM and EURO show intensification further north and east, with little impact over southern MB although it will be colder. So consensus is growing towards colder weather for the weekend, but no major blizzard.. thank goodness..ReplyDelete
Well, in a complete reversal, latest GEM and Euro have now completely flipped to a possible snowstorm over southern MB for Friday, while the GFS is more progressive and develops the storm over Ontario. Sheesh.. wish these models would make up their mind! Needless to say, this system bears close attention and we'll have to see how models trend on this thing over the next few days.ReplyDelete