Another day, another record.. Winnipeg's high of 20.9C today set a new record high for the day, easily smashing the day's previous record high of 14.4C set back in 1910. In fact, the record was broken by 10 am when the temperature at Winnipeg airport was already at 15C. It was the 6th record high in the past 8 days in Winnipeg, one of the longest record breaking warm spells on record. Today also set a new milestone for Winnipeg.. the earliest occurrence of a 20C temperature reading since records began in 1872, beating the former early mark of March 23 1910 when the mercury hit 22.8C. Simply put, it's never been this warm this early in Winnipeg in the past 140 years of weather records.
Cloud cover this afternoon today however prevented the city from reaching the next milestone.. the all time warmest temperature for March, currently a 23.3C reading on March 27 1946. However, it appears that mark may be eclipsed Monday as the warm spell continues for one more day over southern MB. After a record breaking mild night tonight (a low of 14C is forecast which would be the warmest March low on record), balmy south winds and sunshine on Monday should allow temperatures to climb to 25C by early afternoon, which would be the warmest March day on record in Winnipeg. Showers and even some thunderstorms are possible by Monday night as a cold front approaches, heralding the end of this historic March warm spell.
I see that Rob used the term HISTORIC heatwave.ReplyDelete
I will likely never seen a warm spell in March like this again in my lifetime........OR will I?????
(Hey Honey, can you go start my 6 SUV's and let them run overnight.....MWWAAA HA HA HA HAAAAAA !!!!!)
10C seems so cold now lol!! Hard to believe the ''cool down'' will still feature temperatures 10C above normal! We're usually quite happy when temps are 10C above normal, but we've been spoiled so bad.ReplyDelete
Rob, will temps make a return to the mid to high teens later this week?
I don't use the term "historic" lightly.. but in this case, it applies. This is what Jeff Masters had to say about the current warm spell in his blog..ReplyDelete
"Yesterday's temperatures in International Falls were but one chapter in the on-going story of one of the most extreme meteorological events in U.S. history. Never before has such an extended period of extreme and record-breaking warm temperatures affected such a large portion of the U.S. in March, going back to the beginning of record keeping in the late 1800s."
Long range guidance is pointing towards a more unsettled pattern setting up later this week with occasional storm systems passing through southern MB along with some showers. Temperatures may briefly rise into the teens ahead of these systems, but they will be short lived, certainly not as an extended stretch as we've been seeing lately. Still, temperatures are expected to remain generally above normal through the upcoming week.
NAM verified well today.. it was hinting at low clouds since Friday at least - showing 90 % RH values at 925 hPa. The same model develops another area of 90-95 % RH at 925 hPa over the central plains, and advects it right into Manitoba.. not clearing out until approx 3-4 pm. Will have to watch down in Nebraska and S Dakota to see if model verifies.ReplyDelete
Precipitation chances do not look very impressive. Strong LLJ of 45-55 kts noses into the intl border region overnite, but there is not good linkage with surface warm front, which will continue lifting northwards thru the interlake. Some weak showers and clouds may develop from SW Manitoba up thru the interlake early tomorrow morning. Models then develop more precipitation in the moisture stream and LLJ late tomorrow afternoon and evening. Cold front at the surface does not come thru until about dawn Tuesday.
It would be interesting to see if we could break the record on Tuesday as well. Depending on how long it takes for the temperature to cool tomorrow evening, if the temperature is still above 13.9 by midnight, we'll have broken the record for the 20th as well.ReplyDelete
Working the mid shift kind of cool to see a thunderstorm complex blow up just north of Trout Lake in far northwest Ontario.... lightning network not that far north (at least from what it is in our system) but water vapor shows cooling cloud tops and a nice circular appearance. This is at 7-8 utc 3/19ReplyDelete
Just got home from work and checked the temperature..... 19 C at 3:00 in the morning. You have got to be kidding me!ReplyDelete
26.4C yesterday in Fort Frances, Ontario with a humidex of 29C.ReplyDelete
That is the warmest temperature (and humidex) recorded in 2012 in Canada.
18°C as I wake up at 7 am! Gonna bike to work in shorts and t-shirt that means! Pinch me! I'm dreaming!ReplyDelete
You know there's something wacky going on when your overnight low is just as warm as your record high!
Feels like a July mornin out there!!!ReplyDelete
Just wondering why there are no GFAs avbl at Nav Canada's web site. ANy theories Rob?ReplyDelete
If you would of told me that I'd be outside BBQing a steak in my short sleeved shirt at 6pm on March 16th, I would likely laughed at you, but boy it was nice this weekend.ReplyDelete
BTW - That jet stream sure dipping pretty low into Texas, I suspect that will fire up some good storms and possible tornadic activity later this afternoon and evening.
Jeff Masters blog is a must read today. He is basically running out of words trying to explain this massive warm spell!!!ReplyDelete
Daytime record broken again.ReplyDelete
All time March record here we come!
3 more degrees!!!
It is certainly an exceptional weather event we're experiencing. Consider that today is Winnipeg's 4th day in a row with a high temperature over 19C. Prior to this year, there had been only 4 days in the past 140 years where the temperature went above 19C in March. What took 140 years to achieve has been equaled in less than a week. This is off the scale type of stuff.ReplyDelete
Note also Winnipeg's low of 16C last night.. easily the warmest low on record (previous record was 8c in 1945) There's a chance we may drop a bit below 16c by midnight tonight.. but a double digit low still looks likely for today.
Will also be interesting to see if we can get a good squall line of showers and thunderstorms as the cold front pushes through the RRV this evening. Models are a bit divergent as to where this line will set up.. with NAM suggesting line will form to the southeast of Winnipeg, while RGEM is right over us. Regardless, line of storms may produce some small hail along with strong wind gusts as they pass through, along with some heavy downpours.
HRRR model has been consistent in showing a batch or two of convection moving in from ND/MN late this afternoon and early in the evening.
NWS Grand Forks is worried about potential severe down there today. Shear looks pretty good and SPC actually has a 2% tornado risk into their CWFA.
Just wanted to thank you for keeping us all informed on this weather the past few days.
I'm sure you have a busy schedule with family and work, never mind wanting to get out and enjoy this weather!!
Yeah, I see that SPC increased their SLGT risk area up to Pembina.. looks like a linear squall line setup with strong winds gusts, some hail as main threat.
The area of higher RH picked up on by NAM, is manifesting itself as a mottled sky of broken stratus and mist. Looks like it is trying to burn off down in N Dakota (where temps are actually slightly cooler), but a new area of clouds is forming over SW Minnesota and extreme SE N Dakota. Meanwhile, cold air has slumped south, with Dauphin sitting at only 4 C.ReplyDelete
Focus for possible convection late today will likely be a dry-line over central N Dakota, supported by decent LLJ and upper dynamics. Instability in question however - we are having difficulty heating out even with partly cloudy skies.. we'll have to see what happens with cloud trends south of us.
22.2 C at the airport as of 1 PM. 1.2 C to go. We're almost there!ReplyDelete
Oh my 22 in Winnipeg and 23 in Portage......so close.ReplyDelete
The suspense is killing me.
I did not realize, recommending this poll question would lead to this much suspense!!
It's been as high as 22.7C at the airport.. now we're kind of leveling off as more low clouds move in (darn these high dewpoints!) Will keep you posted on any temperature updates..ReplyDelete
I think its even more remarkable that we're experiencing this kind of humidity this time of year! This kind of moisture at this temperature is unheard of in March!ReplyDelete
The latest SPC outlook just pushed the non-severe thunderstorm area a bit to the right, so in the city there might be no action at all at the moment.ReplyDelete
Temperature has just hit 23.4C at YWG airport as of 3:08 pm.. officially warmest March temperature on record in Winnipeg!ReplyDelete
rob, are you sure you're seeing things correctly? The Environment Canada website reports 22.9 C.ReplyDelete
@ Connon...I think Rob has access to more real time data, as opposed to the hourly data the rest of the public gets.ReplyDelete
True, I guess Andy.ReplyDelete
The SPC says that in the Grand Forks area, since convection is unorganized, a WW won't be soon but they'll monitor.ReplyDelete
That's correct.. I have access to real time temperature data for the airport here at the office. Just touched 23.6C a few minutes ago..ReplyDelete
Thunderstorms firing up along the ND MN border by Fargo and making their way north! Lets hope they can reach us!ReplyDelete
Line of thunderstorms firing up quickly now from southeast of Brandon to Devils Lake to Fargo ND.. No watches or warnings yet but monitoring closely..ReplyDelete
At the moment it looks like this will be another hit-or-miss scenario.ReplyDelete
Latest info on thunderstorm development from CWWG at 2pmReplyDelete
SRN MB.. STILL WATCHING FOR LINE OF TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER SRN MB LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND TAPS UNSEASONABLY WARM MHUMID AIRMASS OVER SRN MB. LI VALUES RUNING AROUND -2 TO -3 WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. EXPECTE STORM STO FIRE UP ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER ERN ND AND SPREAD/DEVLOP NWD INTO RRV/SE MB BY EVENING. UNIDEIRECTIONAL FLOW WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY LINEAR STORMS ALONG SQUALL LINE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND 5-15 MM HAIL AS MAIN THREATS.
Looks like thunderstorms from North Dakota all the way to Dauphin. One long line.ReplyDelete
For those looking at the radar on Environment Canada's website, it's still in snow mode, which can exaggerate intensity with rain. You can go to http://aweathermoment.tumblr.com/radar-viewer and select the 1.5 KM CAPPI and it'll get you images for rain.ReplyDelete
Just to mention that I don't have it set to get a straight 1.5KM CAPPI image (or 1.0KM for that matter), the images have filtering within Doppler range which helps remove a bit of the noise that can show up close to the RADAR site.Delete
Good point Connor. Although it may look impressive on radar, this line is still not showing anything too severe. Line just went through Cavalier ND with wind gusts to 70 km/h and 1/2 mile visibility in heavy rain. Line should be pushing north into Winnipeg by 7:30 pm or so..ReplyDelete
Heaviest part of line just going through Carman MB.. report of heavy rain, lots of lightning, gutsy winds, no hail. Nearby Weatherbug station in Roland has picked up 13 mm of rain with squall passage.ReplyDelete
Starting to get the deluge now! Thunderstorm part has arrived.ReplyDelete
Thunderstorm with some good lightning, heavy downpours and street flooding.. 14 mm of rain at my place between 7:45 and 8:15 pm. Peak rain rate of 135 mm/hr at 8 pm. What a way to end a summer like day in March!ReplyDelete
Official maximum of 23.7C at YWG airport today.. fitting end to a memorable warm spell. Congrats to the 34 respondents who said we'd break the record!ReplyDelete
Geez what a record-breaker day. Broke at least 6 or 7 records today when you think about it. Record high, record low, all-time March high, all-time March daily low, high rainfall for March 19, earliest thunderstorm (?).. lol did I miss any?ReplyDelete
oh and high humidex for March!ReplyDelete
.. and all time highest daily mean for any day in March! (probably all time highest dewpoint in March as well, but I don't have those stats)ReplyDelete
Lol Rob, the list goes on and on.. Truely an ''EPIC'' day, I don't know that's the best I can describe it...ReplyDelete