Saturday, March 24, 2012
Some seasonably chilly weather.. then more rain for Monday afternoon into Tuesday
It may have come as a shock to residents of southern Manitoba, but after two weeks of record breaking warmth that saw temperatures more typical of early May, "normal" March weather felt anything but. Temperatures today struggled near the freezing mark all day, with gusty northwest winds and overcast skies. It was the coldest afternoon temperature in Winnipeg since March 9th which had a high of -4C. For tonight, cloudy to partly clear skies will allow temperatures to drop below -5C, our first subfreezing night since the 15th. Dry but cool conditions are expected to cap off the weekend Sunday, before clouds thicken again Monday ahead of the next major system that will affect southern Manitoba. This next system is expected to track across North Dakota Monday night into Tuesday, bringing some widespread rainfall across the RRV and southern Manitoba. Early estimates of rainfall are around 10-20 mm for Winnipeg Monday afternoon into Tuesday, with potentially higher amounts in some embedded thunderstorms which may accompany the system Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Posted by rob at 6:52 PM
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Rob, correct me If I'm wrong, but it seems that the mean temperature for the month is sitting at 1.4 C as of right now.ReplyDelete
We may waffle between 2nd and 3rd warmest March on record now, barring any deep freeze's
Daniel.. As of today, our mean temperature is sitting at +1.9C. The online climate summary for YWG is missing a slightly important high of 21.7C Thursday which raised the mean by +0.5C. I'm keeping track of the daily numbers in a spreadsheet at home, and even with the cooldown this weekend, we still should be around +1.7C by Monday. The rest of the week should gradually warm up again, and based on current temp trends, we should end up with a monthly mean around +2 to +2.2C or so, well into top spot honours.ReplyDelete
More fun with numbers..ReplyDelete
The average temperature in Winnipeg between March 11-23rd was +9.5C, which is normal for early May! The mean daily temperature on March 19th when we recorded both a record monthly high max and high min, was 18.5C, which is normal for late June! You can understand why plants thought it was time to sprout.
I almost fell off my chair when I saw the GFS 850 mb temps for next weekend. That is a long way's off, but it shows some extreme warmth in parts of southern Manitoba!! What a way to end the month if that were to happen.
Anymore thoughts on Monday/Tuesday's system???ReplyDelete
I see SPC has issue a slight risk in North Dakota tomorrow night!!
Instability isn't "great" with the upcoming system here, however, other dynamics look fantastic.ReplyDelete
Low pressure will actually move into southern Manitoba on Tuesday morning. Low level jet noses into S MB Monday already.
Best chance for elevated storms would be Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
Severe weather is a good bet in North Dakota. With the strength of the LLJ, that activity could easily move into S MB. It probably won't be as severe as south of the border but, with the cold temps in the upper levels and good wind fields, hail and strong wind gusts are not out of the question.
Can't wait to see how this one unfolds. Can't believe we're talking about our 2nd good shot of thunderstorm activity this early in the year.
LOL @ DerekReplyDelete
Mother Nature is trying to make up for her lack-luster showing last year!!
Have we set a March rainfall record or is that awaiting this systemReplyDelete
I know we have talked all winter about low snow fall amounts but I'm wondering with this rain we are getting for March is that making up for the low moisture levels for the winter. Most years March precipitation levels would be measured in snowfall cm's. This year in rainfall mm's.ReplyDelete
The long range forecast is making me worry a bit. Take a look at what the GFS forecast has been showing starting around April 4th. It has been showing this for several days now. Summer in March - Winter in April?ReplyDelete
Speaking of historic rain events in March, in 2004 we had 76 mm on March 27 and 25 mm on March 28, all while we had snow on the ground.Seems like quite a lot of rain for March. I remember it well because I had water coming in through a crack in my basement.ReplyDelete
Anonymous... Re: Apr 4th event. GFS seems to be the most extreme solution with that system compared to other guidance right now. All mid-long models indicate development of a storm system over the northern plains/western Great Lakes area in early April with colder temperatures into southern MB, but there's not enough agreement right now to to zero in one particular model at this point. Something to keep an eye out though..ReplyDelete
SPC has issued a slight risk of severe storms in North Dakota!ReplyDelete
Rob, chance of elevated storms here in Southern Manitoba???
Special weather statement issued for the upcoming storm system
Check it out on EC's website!
American 18Z models show main LLJ and moisture transport consolidating east of us overnite.. likely pushing the bulk of elevated convection well off into NW Ontario, even thru Thunder Bay. Lots of lift from left exit region of upper jet core and upper diffluence will still support generic showers, but instability and deep moisture will be well east of here.ReplyDelete
Dry slot tries to punch in tomorrow.. will have to watch where wrap around band set up. Models want to keep deformation and mid-level trowal - and associated stratiform precipitation band - off to our NW.
We could potentially end up with very little precipitation if the above scenario pans out.. with QPE maxima to our SE and NW. Strange how often that happens.
Models do eventually want to bring wrap-around band thru late tomorrow evening (NAM at around 10 PM). However, lots of uncertainty in a) how far southeast the band will make it, and b) how much moisture is left with the system by the time it does. Just keep in mind the potenital for a weakening area of light precipitation to rotate thru tomorrow evening. Precip type by that time would be snow, as enough cold air will have wrapped in behind the system. Whether or not it sticks is another question..
Cool webcam from Dauphin. Press play, and you can see the storm's progression. ;)
Are those thunderstorms on radar??ReplyDelete
Looks like an mcs over northern Interlake! Insane!ReplyDelete
Convection organizing into two main regions.
First is a broad arc stretching from the interlake down thru N Wisconsin, associated with moisture transport at 850 - 700 hPa. That area should further develop and move east out ahead of the 850 hPa jet - not affecting us.
Second is an area near Bismarck, associated more with lower-level convergence around the surface low, and tapping at least some instability just off the surface (riding just north of surface theta-e ridge). At the same time, it is benefiting from the back edge of the LLJ, and shows elevated characteristics. This complex has the potential to affect somewhere in S Manitoba in the 2-4 am timeframe.
Right now it is advecting NNE.. however as LLJ ramps up further, it may start propagating down into the moisture source, causing the complex to start moving more ENE.
We just got pounded by hail here in St Vital for about 5-10 minutes. Dime sized looks to be the averageReplyDelete
Power went off in much of River Park South just a little while ago after a close lightning strike. So wierd how dark it is, dont even see the clouds being lit up lol. Quite the storm for this time of year. And agreed with Jon on the hailReplyDelete
2 thunderstorms events in March already. That's more than all of last years events....LOL!ReplyDelete
Daniel, where/how do you see the surface theta-e ridge?ReplyDelete
NWS Bismarck has reports of snow in the Turtle Mountains around Bottineau and Lake Metagoshie at 930 am....ReplyDelete
Rain might change over to snow soon in western Red River Valley, with temperatures hovering around the freezing mark!ReplyDelete
The only years I note on ECs stats since 1938 of accumulated March "Rain" greater than this year are 1983 40.4mm and 1945 67.6mm If we include snow there are many years.ReplyDelete
Another Top 3 for 2012??
Rob as we approach April 1st and the changeover in Data collection, how accurate are the pre April 1 Rainfall records as compared to the post Apr 1 snow records.ReplyDelete
Radar is quite the colour mosiac today.Reports of heavy wet snow in Brandon!ReplyDelete
Large area of precipitation out ahead of LLJ - in zone of moisture advection, was handled well by the models as it moved east across NW Ontario. However, area of moisture convergence along the back edge of the LLJ and the low, generated convection that was not picked up well by the models. Dry slot set up over eastern N Dakota into the far southern RRV - where it appears very little precip has fallen.ReplyDelete
Trowal has slumped further SE than was advertised yesterday. Precipitation has already moved in, and may be with us much of the day. NAM shows potential for heavier precipitation to come thru between 2 to 5 PM, possibly just clipping us to the north. Back edge of that heavier forcing may switch over to wet snow, overwhelming shallow above freezing layer. Flurries should taper off by late evening..
13:40 PM Tuesday 27th March 2012ReplyDelete
Moderate Snow Grains in Westwood!
Here we go again, radar shuts down when we need it... Is it just me or does this happen oftenReplyDelete
Heavy rain/snow mix in downtown Winnipeg now!ReplyDelete
Rob do you know what the matter is with the radar?ReplyDelete
Where did everyone go?ReplyDelete
I am here Anon.....ReplyDelete
I think everyone is taking a break and enjoying this nice weather. I'd be outside too. As an area of low pressure is possibly coming through tomorrow with a good chance for rain in the Red river valley.
Is Rob on holidays????ReplyDelete
Ran into him yesterday . Writers cramp/carpal tunnel too much yard work.ReplyDelete
With the last portion of this month being cooler than it was 2 weeks ago even though still above normal, and with next week also looking cooler, is this an indication of an upcoming cooler than normal April?
While the past bit has been cooler, our temperatures have still been above normal, with our coolest days dipping to normal to just slightly below-normal temps. So while we're 15°C cooler than the middle of the month, we're certainly not yet dealing with any stretches of below-normal temps. If anything, it just goes to show just how much above normal our heat wave was.!
Ensemble guidance still shows high probabilities of above-normal temperatures for the start of April. I have a bit more commentary on the large-scale pattern at the end of my latest blog post: http://aweathermoment.tumblr.com
Rain is mixed with some kind of pellets it seems, I don't know if it's ice pellets, I guess it is.. Not snow pellets or hail, that I know.ReplyDelete
Hi gang... Been out of town for a few days. Will post updates in the next day or two.ReplyDelete
Quite the downpour approaching the city as we speak.ReplyDelete
Well.....The month of March is wrapping up, and WHAT A MONTH IT HAS BEEN.ReplyDelete
Everywhere you look in the plain states to the midwest and Southern Prairies has been weather that is more typical of Late April to Early May.
Some places in the midwest have the monthly average that is almost in the TOP FIVE WARMEST APRIL'S.
A March that will probably be never repeated in my lifetime!!
Will this be the warmest March on Record for Winnipeg. It will be very close....ReplyDelete
Yes Daniel it will be the warmest March on record!ReplyDelete
1.8C at the airport
Awesome weekend in Sioux Falls with 28 and 32C forecast for Saturday and Sunday. Now a little further north...ReplyDelete
With a high of +8C in Winnipeg today, and 14C (at least) tomorrow, as well as above freezing temps at night, Winnipeg will end up with a March mean of around +2.0 or +2.1C.. easily the warmest March on record.ReplyDelete
What a way to end the month.
Sunny skies (soon) and temps in the mid teens.
A great end, to a great month!!
You're 51.6 mm of rain this March would make this the 3rd wettest March on record Rob!ReplyDelete
Rob are we at another record to finish off the month and did it reach 20C one more time (19.9 on your gauge)??ReplyDelete
D'Thomas.. YWG airport hit 18.8C Saturday..just 0.1C off the record high of 18.9C for the 31st in 1963. Didn't realize we were so close to another record high.. which would have been a fitting end to the month.ReplyDelete
But the month ended with a mean temperature of +2.2C, easily the warmest March on record for us. (prev warmest was 1.6C in 1878) Will post updated stats today..
Let's go for a record high today!!ReplyDelete
Only 1945 in the last 70 plus years has more march rain fallen and on only 13 years has it exceeded 10mm a number we exceeded 3 and almost 4 times this year. Total pcpn including snow exceeded 50mm on only 7 previous years 3 in the last ten years.ReplyDelete
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