Friday, October 14, 2011
Brisk and cool this weekend.. lake effect showers possible
It will be a brisk and cool weekend over southern Manitoba with increasing northwesterly winds as a strong storm system intensifies over northern Ontario this weekend. Northwest winds of 30-40 km/h Saturday will increase to 40 gusting 60 km/h Sunday as the storm system intensifies. The cool northwest winds blowing over the 13C waters of the Manitoba lakes will generate bands of lake effect showers mainly off Lake Winnipeg, with localized bands of rain to the southeast of the lakes. Brisk and cool conditions are expected through early next week with temperatures in the single digits before calmer weather by mid week.
Posted by rob at 10:06 PM
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This cool, windy weather is a real shock to the system. To bad it's just normal for this time of the year. We were so spoiled a few weeks ago.ReplyDelete
WPG airport sure reporting a lot of phantom rainfall amounts past couple days... getting annoying.ReplyDelete
Thompson is calling for 2 - 4 cm of snow today. It's getting closer and closer everyday.ReplyDelete
A first snowfall for us before halloween??? With the way things are trending, you would think.
Upper air data shows 45-50 kt winds possible below 850 mb today over Winnipeg/RRV. With daytime destabilization and well aligned flow, that could translate to gusts of 70-80 km/h here this afternoon. Another windy October day!ReplyDelete
Those winds of November came early again..though no weather bomb this timeReplyDelete
Another blustery day out there today.. 50G70 km/h most of the afternoon with peak gust around 75 km/h at YWG airport. Continuing brisk and cool Monday but low level sub-inversion winds are forecast to be a good 20 kt less than today.. 25-30 kt vs 45-50 kt today. So still breezy Monday.. 30 km/h with occasional gusts to 50, but not as windy as today.ReplyDelete
Is it possible to sneak a few snow flurries in the early morning hours here in Winnipeg, say Tuesday or Wednesday???
These forecast n probability maps say ...maybeReplyDelete
from blogs links above
Tuesday's looking cold enough to support snowflurries in the RRV, with 850 temperatures below -5C much of the day. Limiting factor will be moisture as the airmass is quite dry. That dry air has limited the lake effect so far except off Lake Winnipeg, but the NW trajectory won't bring any activity into Winnipeg. There might be some very light flurries with any low level cloud from time to time, but nothing sticking.
Ridge moves in Wednesday which should suppress any further snowflurry potential. But it's certainly feeling like winter's getting closer!
I just joined facebook the other day ( finally) and sent a request on your page to be friends. I have been on this blog for many, many years so I thought I would send you the request. Just in case you wondering who that Daniel person was that asked to be friends.
Anyone have an idea until we could see our first snowfall?ReplyDelete
The latest GFS is showing some very cold air grazing us sometime next week. That could be our best chance at some snow flurries.ReplyDelete
The forecast states that there is a 30% chance of a snow flurries this evening.
This might be one of those situations that if you blink, you might miss that snowflake!!!
Thats alright there will be more snowflakes to come even if I miss it. i noticed the flow aloft is coming from the NNE so anything we get will either blow off of lake manitoba or lake winnipeg. Not as bad a situation as the snow squalls they get in Ontario.ReplyDelete
Kenora was getting a wet snow all day today. Very close indeed.ReplyDelete
The latest GFS is showing a huge dump of cold air and large storm somewhere in the Great Lakes/ East Coast sometime next week. Impressive for sure.ReplyDelete
Reports of some snowflurries this morning over parts of Winnipeg and surrounding areas.. I didn't see anything in Charleswood other than some frost and light drizzle. Looks like a weakening band of lake effect in the northerly flow off Lake Winnipeg was responsible for the light precipitation overnight/early this morning. Some lake effect flurries off Lake Manitoba as well this morning with Portage reporting light flurries.ReplyDelete
Meanwhile, a very chilly morning further west in the clear air, with lows of -11C in Brandon. Hard to believe we were 31C a mere two weeks ago today.
Brandon hit -11 early this morning. Also add in a little breeze and the windchill was as low as -17....YikesReplyDelete
Here in Winnipeg there is some fog/ low cloud that is tryin to wring out some flurries and freezing drizzle. What a wake up call.
With such a cool day today, it won't take long after the sun sets for the temps to plummet if we can clear out. Temps could hit -10 C for the Winnipeg airport if we clear out and get a light NW flow.
Certainly a chilly one today, and skies are clearing out now making way for a cool night. One thing saving us from plummeting to double digit lows however is that we have a light southerly wind developing tonight. That will keep temperatures up at the airport tonight, with lows of -3C or -4C while southern suburbs (like me!) will be a little colder.. perhaps -5 to -6C. Nicer tomorrow with afternoon temps back up to the 10C mark!
Was on the NWS grand forks homepage this morning and found this link to the upcoming winter outlook for the U.S ( northern plains)
Also Check out Jeff Master's blog on his insights to this winter forecast.ReplyDelete
NWS Grand Forks forecast discussion is talking about a potential rain/snow mix on a Monday - Wednesday time frame. Many days out, but there is potential.ReplyDelete
Thanks for the Headsup Daniel on the winter forecasts.ReplyDelete
2000-01 is not a winter I would want to repeat...Brutally cold Dec and Feb , lots of snow Nov, Dec and part of a 14 month cumulative 977.3 mm of pcpn by July .
This winter has been preceded by extensive Icelandic Volcanic activity (Eyjafjallajökull and Grimsvotn) as occurred preceding the la Nina Winters of 1984, 1995, and 2000.
Encourages one to speculate on the relationship if any between the Icelandic Volcanic activity, the Iceland Low, and the Aleutian Volcanic activity (Russia/Alaska) and the Aleutian Low, and the NAO and the AO .
David Phillips will be at the Winnipeg free press news cafe tomorrow.Got any questions for him?? Check this link out.ReplyDelete
The bombers are gonna have fun tomorrow if the 40-60 km/h wind does happen for the game.ReplyDelete
Some good info on the complexities of winter forecasting on that Jeff Master's blog link.. Goes to show that you can't just tie everything to La Nina or El Nino. Seasonal forecasting is a lot more complex than that. Recall last winter (another la Nina winter) started about mid November after a mild fall, with a normal December, cooler than normal Jan-March. Snowfall was above normal with 147 cm from Nov-April, although the bulk of it fell between Nov-Jan. So overall, a slightly colder than normal winter, with above average snow.. but not a continuously cold snowy winter.ReplyDelete
Nice evening out there.. That forecast low of -5C for Winnipeg seems a bit on the cold side given 0C 850 temps and 12C highs today. NAM showing -1C for Winnipeg overnight with a light southwest flow.ReplyDelete
Looks like those line of showers could be hitting right around game time. That with the 60 km/h wind gusts could make for an interesting game.ReplyDelete
Got a little milder than the forecast high of 11C today in Winnipeg.. 925 mb temps were up to 10C this afternoon supporting a high of 16C, minus a couple degrees for cloud cover giving us the 14C reached this afternoon.ReplyDelete
Band of showers approaching Elie right now.. should be moving into Winnipeg by 5 pm or so. Just some light showers that shouldn't last long.. maybe 30 minutes to an hour giving 1 mm or less.
Wouldn't rule out an isolated thunderstorm neitherReplyDelete
Seeing some lightning to our west, could see some here in the next bit.This in the middle of october?ReplyDelete
17:45 22 Oct 2011 heard the rumble of thunder with the passage of the cold front. Go figure - thunder in October.ReplyDelete
We had to beg for thunderstorms in July and now in October...we might have 2 thunder events. Go figure.ReplyDelete
Parents say they got a good thunderstorm out in Elie.ReplyDelete
Yep..saw some lightning to the north of me about 15 minutes ago..ReplyDelete
That storm just south of Starbuck actually looks quite intense!!! Some small hail with that one????ReplyDelete
Would EC issue a severe thunderstorm warning this late in the season? if one storm gets intense?ReplyDelete
EC would for sure issue warnings anytime of the year, as long as the criteria is met.ReplyDelete
Looks like theyd issue a warning on the storm in carman beleive it or not.ReplyDelete
That storm just entering Winnipeg now is looking impressive on radar.ReplyDelete
Bolt lighting in October....Impressive!!!!ReplyDelete
So much for a light shower! That back line really intensified quickly into an impressive line of thunderstorms.. quick 4 mm of rain in a heavy downpour along with summer-like lightning and thunder! Wasn't expecting that!ReplyDelete
Yeah a nice surprise.. Intense cell moving over central Winnipeg, several bouts of heavy rain, frequent cloud to ground lighting strikes..ReplyDelete
Impressive cloud to ground lighting!!! Some strikes so close, it was just a loud deafing clap. Whew!!ReplyDelete
Boy talk about something you can tell your grandkids about...ReplyDelete
You just never know what mother nature will do next these days.
I'm still trying to take in all that just happended. I mean that light show was really impressive.Lots of strikes hitting the ground. ( I got a nice view from my balcony)ReplyDelete
Why did the thunderstorms gain and keep there intensity this late in the evening?? You think they would fall apart with the setting sun.
Still seeing many lighting strikes with that storm to my southeast.
daniel.. I think it was the sustained lift from the frontal trough that kept things going even into this evening, along with some decent instability ahead of the front with 13-15C temps and 7-9C dewpoints. As long as those conditions were sustained along the front, the storms kept going. Still, pretty intense line for this time of year..ReplyDelete
Lets do a quick review of October shall we.
31 C heat - check
95-100 km wind gusts - check
2 thunderstorm events - check
snowstorm - ?????
At times, is this not the craziest October weather you've ever seen???
Well my parents recall thunderstorms in their past life time during october. I find that that was a very rare event yesterday, it proves how really wild our weather can get and how extreme our weather is becoming. Pretty soon well be saying Tornadoes in October. I guess were gonna have to say our storm season is expanded from may through to november. I just hope we won't see our first snowfall in a while.ReplyDelete