It's another frigid morning over southern Manitoba with temperatures dipping to -35C or colder in many areas of the Red River valley and SE Manitoba. Winnipeg airport dropped to -35C earlier this morning, the coldest reading of the winter so far. Arctic high pressure over southern Manitoba will maintain sunny and very cold temperatures today but luckily winds will be light so windchill won't add noticeably to the cold. The good news is that a moderating trend will begin tomorrow as a warm frontal boundary over Saskatchewan starts pushing eastward. A series of Alberta clippers over the next few days will gradually push this boundary across Manitoba, allowing milder Pacific air over the western Prairies to start spilling into southern Manitoba.
The transition to this milder weather will begin overnight through Sunday as a clipper system starts pushing cloud and some snow into southern Manitoba along with increasing south winds. Temperatures will be on the rise overnight through Sunday, with temperatures of zero to -5C expected west of the Red River valley by late Sunday including Portage and Brandon. The milder air will be slower to arrive in Winnipeg and the Red River valley with temperatures rising to -7 to -10C by Sunday evening, but accompanied by brisk southerly winds gusting to 50 km/h which will add a noticeable wind chill along with some local blowing and drifting snow. Milder temperatures will push into the Red River valley early next week, with highs up to -3c possible Tuesday into Thursday. Colder weather looks to return by next weekend.
Is that the clipper with a weather warning 15 to 20cm of snow in Cypress Hills & Maple Creek Sask this morning.ReplyDelete
No, the clipper affecting SW SK is moving into the Dakotas and missing us. The next clipper will be forming over northern Alberta today into tonight and tracking into Manitoba Sunday.
Thanx Rob. I assume Dan in GFKs is enjoying this brisk weather.ReplyDelete
Will it be record setting if we record -40 and +40 this year.
How much snow will this clipper produce. EC is saying 2-4cm and TWN is saying up to 10cm
I'm thinking the 2-4 cm looks like a good estimate for Winnipeg, perhaps closer to 2 than 4. Looking upstream, there's an area of snow over northern SK that will slide sewd into southern MB tonight with a cm or two possible overnight.. then another wave of snow moves down from nrn SK Sunday with another cm or two for Winnipeg.. but likely a little more through the Interlake and Whiteshell areas with 5 cm or so possible there through Sunday..
EC is now calling for 5 cm of snow with a gusty south wind blowing all that loose powder around!!
Did anyone check out Calgary's long range forecast... 13 C by the end of the week....ARE YOU KIDDING ME!!!!
I see that. I'm kinda hoping Rob is closer to the mark
That nasty southerly wind up the valley is gusting to 60 km/h in Winnipeg, giving us reduced visibility in blowing snow and windchills in the -30s. Not pleasant. Meanwhile, that milder air is starting to surface to our west with temps of -5C approaching the SK border. In fact, some downslope warming off Turtle Mtns has already bumped the temperature up to -6C in Deloraine as of 8 am this morning. Other downslope areas like Dauphin and the western RRV will be quickest to warm up today, while Winnipeg and the eastern RRV will struggle with that valley wind. We may briefly pop into the warm sector this evening and get up to -3C if our winds shift into the west before the cold advection arrives overnight.ReplyDelete
BTW.. next batch of snow is off to our northwest and will be moving into Winnipeg/RRV later this morning. Vsbys could get pretty bad with with the falling snow and strong southerly winds. Snowfall shouldn't be much.. maybe 2 cm or so.. but blowing and drifting will compound the problem.ReplyDelete
I looked at the radar this morning and it showed nothing on radar but the visibility outside is reduced!
Must be quite the blowing snow event!
NWS grand forks discussion this morning states that on a upcoming system next weekend 850mb winds look to be 50 -65 kt!!!
How many km/h would that be???
Looks like a Blowing snow warning now issued for Winnipeg area!!!
50 - 65 kt is approx 90 - 120 kphReplyDelete
90 -120 km/h!!!! WHOA WHOA WHOA!!ReplyDelete
That system for Friday-Saturday is still a ways off, and some models are not deepening it as much as the GFS/ECWMF. Seems like unusually strong deepening for a northwest clipper, but it bears watching..ReplyDelete
Areas outside the city could see a few hours of near blizzard conditions when that snow moves in this afternoon and winds are still up!!! Careful out on the highways!!ReplyDelete
0C surface temperatures have edged to the MB/SK border late this afternoon with -5C temps over the western RRV from Gladstone to Winkler. Meanwhile, Winnipeg only manages to get up to -15C by late afternoon with that dreaded southerly valley wind.. So much for that -4C that was advertised for us a few days ago!ReplyDelete
Interestingly, we may still hit -4C later this evening when our winds shift into the west and briefly tap the mild air to our west before colder air works in overnight. Of course, hitting -4C at midnight is not going to do much for people wanting to enjoy the outdoors on a Sunday afternoon!
I'm just curious EC is calling for 5 cm tonight yet looking at the radar it looks like the snow will taper off in about an hour maybe 2 with some flurries after that. Is this system going to invert and hit us again. Just doesn't look like 5 cm will generate before it passes.
I see it seems to be intensifyingReplyDelete
Looks like the snow will continue through mid evening.. then taper off later this evening and overnight. Amounts will be tough to determine due to the drifting and blowing.. drifts of 5-10 cm will be common, with bare spots elsewhere.
About 3-4cm so far in Steinbach. Snow is tough to measure after having been blown around all day. Looks like a bit more tonight, which will put Steinbach's snowfall for the month over the 30cm mark.ReplyDelete
Well that clipper decided to become stationary. It seemed to get over Winnipeg and lost its momentum. I think we easily got 5 cm of snow.ReplyDelete
The roads are an ICY mess out there!!! This morning commute is gonna be a slow one!!!ReplyDelete
I'm estimating about 5 cm of new snow here in Charleswood.. difficult to measure accurately due to the winds yesterday, but anywhere between 3 and 8 cm in level areas with deeper drifts. The snow last evening was heavier and more persistent than I expected as the clipper passed right over us and brought the swath of heavier snow a little further south (which is why we didn't pop into the warm sector last evening, bringing temperatures of -2C as close as Carman)ReplyDelete
It was still snowing pretty good at 2:40 am.ReplyDelete
Snow was heavy to move..What was the ratioReplyDelete
I'd guess that snow:water ratio was about 10 or 12:1 The strong winds really packed the snow down, and made it more dense.ReplyDelete
With that 5 cm, I'm up to 29 cm now for January, and an even 100 cm since Nov 1st. Normal winter season snowfall in Winnipeg is 110 cm.
Total of 6cm in Steinbach with the last system. 4.1mm of liquid equivalent, giving a ratio of about 15:1. Total of 36cm so far in January and 94cm so far this winter. There is currently about 46cm on the ground.ReplyDelete
What you think about that +2 and rain showers on Thurday???
We really have a shot at above freezing this time??
I would doubt the +2, as the cold air is pretty dense!!!!
However, it isn't out of the realm of possibility, but with other guidance saying -2 or so, that's where I would go!!!!!!!!
Are you ready for slush‽‽‽‽‽‽‽‽‽‽‽‽‽
+2C for Winnipeg is possible IF we get a decent westerly flow tapping all that mild air to our west and scouring out any cold air trapped in the valley. This does happen now and then even with a decent snow cover, but we need a west wind to do that. Note yesterday, temperatures went above zero over SW Manitoba where winds shifted into the west.ReplyDelete
As for Thursday, models show a clipper moving just to the north and east of Winnipeg putting us into a westerly flow during the day. Thus, we could get up to the freezing mark or slightly above if that pans out. However, if the clipper is further south, then we'll miss out on the plus temps as they occlude out to our south. Overall, I'm thinking +2C is a bit of a stretch for Winnipeg (more likely to our south and west) but we should be able to get close to the freezing mark the way things are looking right now.
Rob - You always respond to questions in such a mature, helpful, and respectful manner. I wanted to commend you for providing your readers with such great, detailed forecasts and up-to-date information for all these years. Keep up the good work. Not everyone can do it the way you do.ReplyDelete
Thanks for those kind words. I too appreciate everyone who shares their thoughts and insights into the forecast on this blog, or provides current weather information to help figure out what Mother Nature is up to. We're not always right, but I like to think that we're providing some useful info for people out there. Thanks again..
The first flood forecast for this year has just been released and..... it's not looking pretty any way you slice it!ReplyDelete
It appears that anything approaching the 100 mms of 1974, 96,and 99 will be devastating.. 1989 ,another La NINA Winter/Spring following an El NINO spring,would be my wishcastReplyDelete
Correction...S/read Anything approaching another 100mm _from now to Peak Flood Crest Date. 1989 with 42 mms Feb 1 to April 30_is my preference.ReplyDelete
Westerly flow finally pushed the mild air into the RRV.. temps of -3C this afternoon in Winnipeg was the mildest day here since Dec 28th. We cool off a bit tonight as we get brushed by colder high pressure passing by to the north (odd that the forecast mentions windchills of -25 this evening when it turns colder overnight. And that low of -22C overnight is if we clear. If we don't, it may be more like -15C)ReplyDelete
We stay on the boundary of mild air Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures around -4C, then a strong clipper moves across southern MB Friday bringing increasing northwest winds and falling temperatures. (as for that odd forecast of rainshowers for Friday with below freezing temps, models are hinting at the possibility of some above freezing temps early Friday in the warm sector of the clipper with a chance of some showers or freezing rain, but then it turns colder through the day with increasing NW winds, falling temps, and snow likely by afternoon or evening.) Back to colder weather for the weekend..
On friday you were saying a strong clipper do you mean in periods of snow as well. Are we looking at 5-10cm of snow.
Right now, models are showing Friday's clipper giving its heaviest snow mainly north and east of Winnipeg.. with 5-10 cm possible. Winnipeg still looks like we'll get something out of it.. especially Friday night with 2-5 cm possible as a first guess but we could get more if this thing tracks a little further south. Note that northwest winds will be increasing by Friday evening so blowing and drifting snow may be an issue as well. I'll keep you updated as we get closer to the event..
Latest guidance has slowed down Friday's clipper somewhat.. so we'll be in the warm sector a little longer before things cool down Friday night into Saturday.ReplyDelete
Ahead of this clipper, we'll have a band of snow move into the RRV overnight Thursday as the warm front advances east from SK. A couple cm of snow possible with this band along with some gusty south winds again. There could even be some freezing rain mixed in by Friday morning as warmer air aloft moves in. As the clipper moves off to our north and east, we get into the warm sector by Friday afternoon with a westerly flow that will get us above freezing in Winnipeg for the first time since mid November. So Friday will be messy on the roads with early snow or freezing rain melting into a sloppy mess by afternoon. Washer fluid alert! :) Cold front then pushes through Friday night and freezes everything back up with much colder air by Saturday morning. Not much new snow forecast at this point with the colder air Friday night as the main snow band passes off to our north and east with the clipper. Colder and sunnier for the weekend with Arctic high pressure building in. That's how it looks right now.. will keep you posted..
Clear skies and lite southerly winds are allowing temps to crater around the city... while just about everyone else in N Dakota, NW Ontario, Western Manitoba enjoying a relatively mild evening. Roads very treacherous...ReplyDelete
There is a facebook page for Red River Flood 2011. On that there is a comment from someone who apparently works for a fargo news team:
"We had a story on the radio today that Winnipeg has contacted HESCO & requested all the barriers they have on hand & all they can build over the next few months. Those barriers are already promised to Fargo. Those in authority are preparing... for "The Big One".
We need to do all that we can, as early as possible, here, so we can minimize our needs & give others a chance to buy what we don't need. You know the barriers are going to have to stay in place into the summer, because of the possibility of heavy rain causing a new crest.
The heavy equipment seems to be being removed from the work area at 52nd Ave S (Drain 27, I believe) today"
Fargo will start doing about 2-3 million sandbags in place and prepare for a 42 ft crest. I personally think GF will see 54-55.
Thanks for the update Dan GF!!ReplyDelete
The next few months look very busy down south with the flood prep.!
Dan GF .. A few feet of the Grand Forks 1997 54 foot crest was blamed on the bridges.ReplyDelete
Have any been replaced?
The double bridge at Drayton (new bridge up, old not down may prove interesting as well.
Well, new model runs are pushing that Friday clipper further south and as a result, Winnipeg may see more snow tomorrow then earlier expected. GEM is showing a swath of 10-15 cm through the interlake with 5-10 cm possible now for Winnipeg and SE MB. Snow would start overnight and continue Friday. Will post more info on this event in a new thread today..ReplyDelete
Is there any chance of freezing rain with this system or will it be all snow??
Do you have flood blog Links on this page or your Robs Obs Site?ReplyDelete
Risk of freezing rain over SW MB tonight mainly south and west of a line from Roblin to Pilot Mound.
The Thompson bridge which is just south of Grand Forks over the red was replaced this summer by a new bridge that allows for more water to pass under. Thompson isnt a forecast point and I wasnt here in 97 so really unsure what height it is good too. Now the the 3-4 main local bridges havent changed.