Sunday, January 30, 2011

Dry week ahead with warming trend.. next snow threat looms for weekend..

A large ridge of Arctic high pressure over the Prairies will bring dry and cold weather over southern Manitoba to start the work week.. allowing some time to recover from Friday's wintery wallop. This high pressure ridge will dive southward into the US during the upcoming week, bringing unseasonably cold weather to the southern US Plains while helping to fuel a significant winter storm system that will affect a large part of the US midwest, Ohio valley and New England, as well as southern Ontario by mid week. Meanwhile, a return flow of milder Pacific air will spread over the western Prairies during the week, bringing a noticeable warming trend into southern MB for the middle to latter part of the week. The next threat of snow for Winnipeg and southern MB will be next weekend as another Alberta clipper tracks across southern MB bringing some snow, and a return to colder weather for next week.

It's too early to say how much snow the weekend's clipper will bring to the Red River valley.. these systems have had a history of bringing 5-10 cm to southern MB although Friday's more intense system brought 10-20 cm. These systems have helped to produce another month of above average snowfall in Winnipeg, with 44 cm recorded during the month, some 20 cm above normal. This has put the seasonal snowfall since Nov 1st to 115 cm in the city.. which is already an entire winter's worth of snow... with 2-3 months of additional snowfall to come. This winter is on pace to be the snowiest winter in Winnipeg since the winter of 1996-97 when 205 cm was recorded prior to the great Red River flood in the spring of 1997.


  1. That snow advisory in the South east corner of ND has been updated northward again. 3 to 6 inches by Monday afternoon Fargo Moorhead and the I-94 corridor.
    and 5 to 9 inches Whapeton Breckenridge.

    Latest Link from

  2. Please let the GFS be wrong in the clipper and the MASSIVE cold snap next weekend...I can't take it anymore!!! :>(

  3. This looks like "THE BIG ONE" for CYYZ!!


    City of Toronto
    10:47 AM EST Monday 31 January 2011
    Winter storm watch for
    City of Toronto issued

    ..Major winter snowstorm Tuesday night and Wednesday..

    This is an alert to the potential development of dangerous winter weather conditions in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

    A major winter storm is developing over Texas and will track towards Southern Ontario Tuesday. The low is expected to track just south of the lower lakes Wednesday.

    Light snow will begin in advance of this system tonight and Tuesday. However the heavier snow is forecast to begin Tuesday night and continue Wednesday morning. Potential widespread snowfall amounts of 20 to 30 cm are likely before the snow tapers off Wednesday afternoon.

    In addition strong and gusty east winds will develop with the snow. This will cause local whiteout conditions in blowing snow. The east winds will also generate local snow squalls off Lake Ontario in advance of the main snow area which will give enhanced snow amounts to regions near the west end of Lake Ontario.

    This will be the first Major winter storm of the season for the Toronto area, and the most significant storm of the season for many regions outside the traditional snow belts. The heavy snowfall and blowing snow will cause whiteout conditions making for extremely hazardous driving conditions. The public should be prepared to change plans accordingly to avoid travel during the storm. This storm has the potential to create near-paralyzing conditions.

    Environment Canada continues to monitor this dangerous winter storm and will issue further watches and warnings as necessary.

  4. Looks like a doozy.. That storm will result in major air travel disruptions Wednesday, not only in Toronto but through Detroit and Chicago as well, which will have domino effects across Canada and the US. I would not want to have a flight anywhere through Pearson or Ohare Wednesday.. (they'll likely be cancelling flights before the storm anyways..)

  5. Rob!
    Just reading some of the weather warnings for Oklahoma and Kansas ,blizzard warnings are being issued!

    The blizzard warning for Tulsa area has statements that I have never seen before in a weather warning

    They want to hit home the severity of this blizzard where up to 20 inches could fall in the area!

    You know we have NOT had a whopper of a storm like that here Yet this year so you have a feeling that our luck just might run out this year????

  6. Could this storm in the U.S and Canada be contender for Storm of the Century????

    It is going to hit some major population area's ,with major ice up to a inch, crippling blizzard conditions from Oklahoma city to Chicago, never mind some severe weather!

    This could be one for the record books!!

  7. Locally, clouds continue to erode and sag south as arctic ridge asserts dominance and clipper slides away. Models show higher RH at all levels shifting further and further south thru out the course of the night. The calmest winds up thru 925 hPa and centre of high will remain off to our west.. but with a lighet WNW flow and clearing, the forecast low of -30 C unfortunately seems 'too warm' Only saving grace (for YWG) may be flow switching more to WSW by morning... in that case we would see cold temps (lower than -30 C) over the far SW part of the city including Rob's location.

  8. Already -27 C at the Winnipeg airport, so -30 could be a little warm! Could we go for another -34C??? Sure...why not!

  9. Rob!
    Jeff Master's blog is a good read today! Some very destructive weather all over the place!!

  10. 1 C on Friday!

    Finally! I can't for the warm up!

  11. Rob

    How much snow are we expecting thursday night?

  12. Daryl..

    Doesn't look like much Thursday night.. maybe 2-3 cm. Weak clipper passing to our northeast with not much moisture to work with. But I've been burned by these clippers too often this past month, so we'll keep an eye on it to see if there are hints that it may be stronger.

    Snow threat for the weekend looks minimal now as well, perhaps a dusting to 2 cm with a trend to colder weather Sunday into next week.

  13. Time to get out today and enjoy this heatwave before we go back into the deep freeze!

  14. Interesting comparison of conditions at noon...

    Winnipeg Airport: -1.0 Celsius, cloudy, wind WNW 26 km/h

    Along the Gulf Coast at South Padre Island, Texas: -2.2 Celsius, overcast, wind NNW 37-56 km/h

  15. What????
    Were warmer here than in Houston Texas!!!

    Crazy stuff!!!

  16. A high of exactly 0.0C at Winnipeg airport today.. first time since Nov 16th that we've been at or above freezing. We should be able to rise above the zero mark overnight into Friday as a westerly flow taps milder air to our west. That will end our below freezing streak at 78 days.

    Watching the next batch of precipitation off to our northwest over central SK/MB which is mainly in the form of rain (The Pas currently raining at +2C as of 7 pm) This area of rain will slide southeastward and bring a threat of freezing rain over Winnipeg and the Red River valley overnight. Currently -4C at Winnipeg airport, and we should climb to near or above freezing by the time the pcpn starts. Likely some slippery conditions by morning due some rain falling on cold surfaces left over from subfreezing weather.